What’s Up With Bo Nix? The Numbers Behind the Broncos QB’s Underwhelming Start to the Year

Shortly before Bo Nix went down with a fractured ankle in the divisional round of the playoffs, he was chucking the football down the field to his receivers, Marvin Mims Jr. and Courtland Sutton, scoring a game-tying touchdown to force overtime and drawing multiple pass interference calls in overtime to win the game.

That version of Nix has yet to be seen in 2026. While the Broncos are 3–2, their offense remains lackluster, averaging 18.2 points per game (after stripping out defensive points). Sean Payton handed play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Davis Webb in the offseason, but already took them back before Week 5 amid the offense’s struggles.

This is a pivotal season for Nix. The Broncos are Super Bowl contenders. Nix will become extension eligible next offseason, and the Broncos will make a decision on his fifth-year option as well. Playing well in Year 3 could result in both on-field success and a big payday. Through five weeks of the season, however, Nix has disappointed.

“There’s a lot that’s been said about his feet. I think he’s settling that down,” Payton told reporters of Nix after the win over the Chargers on Sunday. “I think it’s important from a protection standpoint that early in games we provide that clean pocket so that clock doesn’t get juiced up a little bit.”

As the Broncos prepare to face the Seahawks on Thursday, here are five numbers that explain Nix’s underwhelming start to the season.

13

The number of 20-plus-yard passes Nix has attempted this season, which ranks 20th in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.

Nix’s lack of downfield pass attempts is surprising, since he has not been bad at throwing deep. According to Next Gen Stats, this season, he has completed 6-of-13 passes of 20 or more yards for 185 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions while generating a completion percentage over expected of +10.5% (9th). Arguably his best play of the year came when he rolled out to his right and launched a 49-yard pass to Jaylen Waddle against the Jaguars with a defender in pursuit.

Bo Nix, rolling right, finds Jaylen Waddle with a DIME

CBS | Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/ex43nnbVXg
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 20, 2026

-0.20

Nix’s EPA per dropback when throwing 11-to-19 yards downfield, according to Next Gen Stats. While Nix has remained solid throwing downfield, he has not been as good throwing to the intermediate area of the field. He has completed just 44% of his passes (30th) on these throws for 180 yards (30th), two touchdowns (T-13th) and all three of his interceptions on the season (T-2nd). He also doesn’t do it often.

Nix has attempted just 25 passes to the intermediate area, which ranks 24th. The only players who rank behind him are Deshaun Watson and quarterbacks that have not played in all five games, such as Sam Darnold, Michael Penix Jr., Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels. In contrast, Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with 56 passes targeted to the intermediate part of the field.

Rather, Nix has heavily targeted the short area of the field, ranking 10th in passes behind or within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

5.6

Nix’s yards per attempt, which is tied for 28th in the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, he also averages 6.0 air yards per attempt, which ranks last in the league.

After the Broncos’ win over the Chargers, Payton also indicated he wants to see Nix “let it rip” more.

“I’ve said to him, ‘Man, you’re the guy we wanted here. Let’s go. And you’ve done a ton of things well,’ but I think there’s a lot that goes into that,” Payton said. “It’s important in that old TV series The Bear they say, ‘Let ’er rip.’ I want him to make sure, hey, Let ’er rip.”

In short, this number and the two above indicate that Nix has been reluctant to throw downfield, often passing up receivers open in the deep and intermediate areas of the field in favor of shorter passes.

Notably, he also didn’t post a high yards per attempt last season, averaging just 6.4, which contributed to him leading the league in pass attempts but falling short of 4,000 yards (he finished the season with 3,931 passing yards). The Broncos, however, traded for Waddle in the offseason, a move meant to help create more explosive passing plays. Those plays have been there, Nix just needs to reach for them more often.

5

The number of times Nix has scrambled this season, per Steven Ruiz of Fox Sports. Nix is on pace to record the fewest number of scrambles in his career this season. This wouldn’t be an issue if Nix were throwing the ball downfield more, but he’s also not helping the Broncos earn big gains with his legs. Perhaps this is a result of his ankle injury or him not wanting to get injured again. Either way, the Broncos will need more from him down the stretch, whether it’s with his arm or his legs.

150.8

The number of passing yards per game the Seahawks allow in the intermediate part of the field, the best in the league, per Next Gen Stats. If Nix wants to “let it rip” and throw more intermediate and deep passes in Week 6, it won’t be easy as they take on the Seahawks. Seattle boasts one of the league’s best defenses, and it is particularly good at limiting big passing plays and forcing turnovers. According to Next Gen, the Seahawks’ defense has allowed -0.26 EPA per pass on intermediate passing plays, the third-best mark in the league. Against deep passes, their defense also ranks third in EPA per pass allowed (-0.40).

Another interesting matchup in this Thursday night game will be how Nix holds up against pressure. Nix has struggled against the blitz this season, ranking 28th in EPA per dropback (-0.31) when blitzed. The Seahawks blitz at the second-lowest rate in the league (19.1%). Even so, they have recorded the second-highest pressure rate (44.3%), trailing only the blitz-heavy Vikings. Will the Seahawks blitz more to turn up the pressure on Nix? Or will they be able to get pressure against the Broncos’ offensive line, which is one of the best in the league? That could be one of the keys that decides the game Thursday night.

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