Broncos vs. Bills: Week 10 Bold Predictions & Picks
The Denver Broncos are about to climb back in the saddle for a long march down the stretch of the 2023 season. The first test post-bye comes in the form of yet another quality AFC opponent — the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos and Bills aren't that far removed in the standings. Different AFC divisions, sure, but the Broncos are 3-5 and the Bills 4-5. Buffalo has yet to reach its bye.
The model Sean Payton established in Week 8's victory over Kansas City is a winning one. If the Broncos can implement that same level of three-phase complementary football, they can beat anyone.
That includes the Bills. But that's a big 'if.'
How will it shake out on Monday Night Football? Let's go around the Mile High Huddle table to see how our staff foresees this one unfolding on primetime.
James Campbell (@JamesC_MHH) 4-4: While it is too early for this type of talk, if the Broncos have any hope of playing football in the second week of January, the Bills are the ultimate litmus test. On offense, the Broncos have to minimize mistakes, stick to the run game, and get timely turnovers, while on defense, dealing with Josh Allen and his running ability in the red zone will be critical. The task for the Bills' front seven will be to flush Russell Wilson and generate negative plays, so Broncos RT Mike McGlinchey has his work cut out as a certain Vonnie B'VSean Miller will play his first game against the Broncos. In a nationally primetime game on the East Coast, the Broncos typically underwhelm. But the Broncos should play the Bills close.
Pick: Bills 17, Broncos 14
Keith Cummings (@KeithC_NFL) 4-4: It's a funny old game, pro football. Suddenly, the Broncos are playing in a primetime game on MNF with much on the line. Perhaps it's the way the shrewd and stealthy Payton always had planned things. Ball control, ball control, and more ball control will be the order of the day. Turnovers will also be needed if the relatively conservative Broncos' offense is going to provide enough points to defend. Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain II come up big in the turnover battle, and Marvin Mims Jr. makes a spectacular house call on a long punt return to seal a huge win for the suddenly ascending Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 28, Bills 23
Carl Dumler (@CarlDumlerMHH) 3-5: The Broncos and Bills are going in opposite directions, with both needing a big win to keep their playoff hopes afloat. For the Broncos to win this one, they will need to force Allen into some bad decisions and possibly a turnover or two. Thankfully, he has been vulnerable to doing just that, and the Broncos' defense comes up big once again with some key plays giving the offense a nice advantage. On offense, the Broncos keep to the script that has worked the last couple of weeks of running early and often with some play-action shots mixed in. Payton also draws up a trick play in this one that hits Mims deep for a big play, and the Broncos find themselves walking out of Buffalo with a key win.
Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 20
Mike Evans (@MHHEvans) 4-4: Monday night's forecast is a shocker: a Denver win. Armed with their newfound elixir of 'play-it-safe,' the Broncos are set to trip up the Bills. Coach Payton will keep Wilson sporting invisible training wheels, sticking to timid jogs and baby throws. Meanwhile, Vance Joseph's defense is plotting a straitjacket special for Allen, ensuring his touchdown gallops are just wishful thinking. It's less of a football game more a strategic game of keep-away.
Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 20
Thomas Hall (@ThomasHallNFL) 5-3: The Bills are beatable, and the Broncos are coming off the bye with an impressive win against one of the best teams in the NFL. With that said, the Broncos still have a lot to prove. Was the win over the Chiefs their Super Bowl or a glimpse at what is to come for the rest of the season? This game will be the gauge because it will be tough to waltz into Buffalo and leave with a victory.
Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 23
Chad Jensen (@ChadNJensen) 4-4: I'm finally back at .500! But the Broncos are two games out from that milestone. It'll be exceedingly difficult to split the distance in Upstate New York against a quality opponent that has underachieved thus far. However, the model Payton established in Week 8 is one that can unlock any and all doors for the Broncos, though it's not an easy one to execute week in and week out. For that consistency to happen, the players have to attack each opponent with the same level of belief and intensity. If I have my doubts, it's that this team is mentally tough enough to sustain that level of emotional mettle. But I want to believe. Payton had two weeks to get ready for this one. I'm betting on him.
Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 19
Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) 3-5: My heart is telling me to ride with the Broncos after they admittedly proved me wrong against Kansas City. I want to believe they'll spring two massive upsets, that the defense turned a permanent corner, and that this team can go on a Cinderella-like playoff push. But considering the Week 10 circumstances — a primetime affair, in a hostile environment, against a foe that rarely loses two straight — my brain says otherwise.
Pick: Bills 26, Broncos 24
Nick Kendell (@NickKendellMHH) 4-4: While the Broncos are on a two-game winning streak and the Bills are struggling, Vegas still has Denver listed as 7.5-point underdogs going into MNF. The Bills' defense has fallen off dramatically, but the team still features one of the best offenses in the NFL. If the Broncos' defense can play Buffalo at the same level it showed the previous three weeks, Denver should come away with a win. The Broncos are a better team than they showed to start this season, but they still are a ways from being a team that can win on the road consistently against a quality opponent like the Bills.
Pick: Bills 30, Broncos 26
Luke Patterson (@LukePattersonLP) 4-4: Consecutive wins have Broncos Country cautiously optimistic about the remainder of the 2023 regular season. But after a long bye week without any blockbuster trades being made, Denver is still far from being a winning football team. Allen is 2-0 against Denver and will answer the call at home on MNF in front of Bills Mafia. The words 'playoffs' or 'postseason' shouldn’t be uttered in Denver until this team can get above .500. While I still subscribe to the theory that Payton will right the Broncos' wrongs, it’s not with this current crop of players.
Pick: Bills 33, Broncos 20
Lance Sanderson (@SandersonMHH) 4-4: A few weeks ago, this game against Buffalo seemed like an all-but-certain defeat for the boys in Orange and Blue. However, a sense of optimism has poked its head out after a pair of wins and holding the Chiefs to 28 total points in two combined matchups. If the Broncos can get the ground game going as efficiently as they did against Kansas City and Green Bay the last two weeks, they have a legitimate shot at stealing one away from Buffalo. I'm picking the Bills here, but I would not be surprised to see the Broncos come out on top.
Pick: Bills 24, Broncos 19
Erick Trickel (@ErickTrickel) 3-5: The Bills defense has been hit hard with injuries leading to struggles, especially against the run. They live in their 4-2-5 defense 81% of the time and rush only four 73% of the time. Why is that significant? The Broncos offense has done well against four-man rushes and light boxes that come naturally in 4-2-5 defenses. Javonte Williams should have a great day against a bad Bills run defense by taking advantage of light boxes as he has done, and it should lead to an efficient passing game. The Broncos' defense, even with their improved showing, doesn't match up well against the Bills offense. A lot will depend on what version of Allen the Bills get. In the end, Buffalo gets the great version of its QB as Denver struggles once against heading east, and Von Miller has a game against his former team with two sacks, one of which forces a fumble.
Pick: Bills 27, Broncos 20
Dylan Von Arx (@arx_d) 3-5: After a massive win against the Chiefs, the Broncos have the confidence that they can hang with any other team in playoff contention. Although the Bills have more weapons at the skill positions than KC, Allen is prone to turning the ball over, especially after Brian Daboll departed. With the Buffalo defense being vulnerable to the run, expect another big game for the running back trio from Mile High. If Denver's defense can show up like it did against Patrick Mahomes, then the Broncos have a good shot at winning Monday night.
Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 17
Ron White (@RonWhiteNFL) 3-5: The wins against the Packers and the Chiefs have provided the Broncos confidence and momentum to remain competitive. Coming off a bye week, this team now faces a challenging road test against the Bills. Although the Bills are suffering from several injuries, they still have many weapons on offense that can cause the Broncos some problems defensively. The keys in this game will be winning the time-of-possession battle and forcing the turnover-prone Allen into some errant throws. In the end, Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin will have a big game, and Simmons and Surtain will each have an interception. Such will yield a victory for the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 27, Bills 20
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