How Positional Value Could Shape Broncos' Draft Strategy

The Denver Broncos will have a good bead on the positional values in order to maximize their seven draft picks.

Nick Kendell | Apr 15, 2025

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and Penn State tight end Tyler Warren. / Troy Babbitt / Robert Goddin / Imagn Images

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Denver Broncos

At the end of the day, the point of the NFL draft is quite simple: select the best players available when it's your turn on the clock. Evaluating the best players, though, is another thing entirely.

The reality is that there are no sure things when it comes to drafting players. There are teams and front offices that do better more consistently and at a slightly higher clip than other squads, but all in all, the draft needs to be called for what it is: a volatile educated guessing game.

There are teams that can strike gold with a single pick, helping overshadow poor drafting around the golden child, such as the drafting of the Kansas City Chiefs for the most part in recent years while propped up by the best quarterback in football, Patrick Mahomes. The New Orleans Saints are still operating like the historic draft class of 2017 is still in the building. A good draft one year does not guarantee one the next year.

Today, we're talking about how positional value should influence draft direction.

Maximize the Value

The best thing a team can do to combat failure in the draft is to maximize the value of each selection with an understanding of historical context and the drivers of scarcity and economics when it comes to positional value. There is no such thing as positional value at a truly transformational player, such superstars playing devalued positions like San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, or Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.

If a team could get a guarantee that a first-round linebacker, tight end, or running back would eventually turn into a player of those three’s caliber (or even slightly less ability), it would pick those players regardless of the position. That isn’t how the reality in evaluating prospects in the draft works, though.

While it's easy to say, “draft the good players, don’t draft the bad players,” one must acknowledge the economics of how good players are obtained in the NFL and how the avenues to find quality starters varies per position. The value of the position of offensive tackle, for example, is greatly driven by scarcity.

There simply are not many individuals walking the earth capable of filling in every starting offensive tackle spot to meet the demand. Some other positions, such as wide receiver, don’t necessarily have a lack of talent, but the truly great ones are becoming elevated to being the second-highest-paid players (behind quarterbacks) in the NFL. The value of wide receivers is driven more by impact than scarcity.

Offensive tackle, wide receiver, as well as defensive line (both interior and edge), cornerback, and quarterback are considered the “value” positions in today’s NFL game. They tend to be paid the highest, are drafted the highest, and the most coveted across the league.

Separating the Haves From the Have Nots

It’s not just the value of those positions relative to the open market, though, compared to the likes of running back, interior offensive line, linebacker, and safety that make them “value” positions, but the league by and large is actually fairly good at separating the “haves” from the “have nots” at these positions.

Teams are getting wiser to positional value and, more importantly, the lack of availability of tackle talent outside of the early rounds.

I've highlighted OT as one of the "Tier 1" positions that NFL teams need to draft early https://t.co/YLhxGg88c4 pic.twitter.com/uKvC6Fs7kN
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) April 8, 2025

Teams are, overall, rather abhorrent at properly evaluating linebackers and tight ends. Just a quick look back over the last decade of players drafted in the first round at these positions is a graveyard of busts or solid NFL players who simply did not live up to a true round-one return on investment.

There are outliers such as the Las Vegas Raiders’ Brock Bowers or someone like the Dallas Cowboys’ Micah Parsons, whose true value comes as an edge as opposed to an off-ball linebacker, but the overall sample is not kind. A true difference-maker in Round 1 is still valuable, but the odds of finding that player on Day 2 are nearly as good as using a first-round pick for a fraction of the cost.

Remember, the Good Ones Never Hit the Market

It’s not just the historical hit rate for plus-players at the positions of value differing greatly in Round 1 compared to other spots on the field, but also that good players at quarterback, edge rusher, defensive tackle, and wide receiver hardly ever hit the open market. If they do, they often come with a checkered past of injury or spotty behavior and wind up a massive overpay.

Yep. Not only is there a lack of talent but the talent doesnt leave the team who drafts them pic.twitter.com/bbdWVH95Rl
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) April 8, 2025

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Simply put, if a team wants a long-term difference maker at receiver, tackle (either offensive or defensive), wide receiver, or quarterback, you have to draft them because help will not be found on the open market.

As a side-bar, cornerback is likely an exception here because the position is historically the most volatile year-to-year of any in the league, has a short shelf life, and the cliff for when a cornerback falls off is as steep as any position in the league. Therefore, teams are less willing to pay huge money for a previously top 20 corner because of the impending age cliff and inherent up-and-down, year-to-year nature for most at the position.

Weighing the ROI

Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) catches a long pass vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Oct 26, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) catches a long pass while West Virginia Mountaineers linebacker Trey Lathan (4) fails to defend against him during the fourth quarter at Arizona Stadium. / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

The value of each position also changes the acceptable floor and what the conversation for the return on investment should cost. For example, if the Broncos take Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan at pick 20 and he winds up being “just” the 20th-best receiver in football, that would still be adequate value given the reality that 21 receivers make north of $20 million per year in the league.

However, let's say the Denver Broncos take North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton, and he winds up being the 15th-best running back; there are only six running backs making more than $10 million per year. The acceptable floor for a position of value is much lower than at a devalued position, thus narrowing the range of acceptable outcomes. Running back in itself is an interesting case study for positional value in today’s league-wide landscape

What it Means for the Broncos

How should this information influence the Broncos in the upcoming draft? While some will argue that positional value doesn’t matter, it's already inherently baked into the big boards and mock drafts scoured across the internet.

An edge rusher that checks as many athletic thresholds as South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori or a defensive tackle with as much consistently great tape as Georgia safety Malaki Starks would be considered top 10 picks, not prospects on the cusp of Day 1 and Day 2. If there were wide receiver prospects (not named Travis Hunter) as talented as Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, Michigan tight end Colston Loveland, or Penn State tight end Tyler Warren are at their respective positions, they would very likely be selected before the running back and tight ends.

Every time a first-round pick is not utilized on a premium position, it is an opportunity cost at finding a player at one of the more demanded and harder to find spots on a football field. This does not mean that the Broncos should completely disregard running back, tight end, or linebacker in Round 1.

The Takeaway

The bottom line is that each team should trust its board. They pay those people to evaluate and do their jobs in a high-stakes industry, after all.

But if the Broncos are hoping to walk away with an interior defensive lineman to help offset the impending and potential loss of the likes of Zach Allen, Malcolm Roach, or John Franklin-Myers, add an option at edge in case Nik Bonitto’s contract demands are too high for them, or the team needs to find a wide receiver in case Courtland Sutton falls off entering his age-30 season and the (relative) youth of Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Devaughn Vele don’t materialize into anything but serviceable rotational pass catchers, then the team must consider these positions in Round 1 as the chances of finding long-term plus players at these positions later in the draft dwarf in comparison to other positions.

The Broncos could certainly go with a non-premium position in Round 1 at running back or tight end, and quite frankly, the work that head coach Sean Payton and GM George Paton have done to turn this franchise around has earned them the benefit of the doubt should they bypass other more valuable harder to find later positions.