Breaking Down What Stats Broncos' Drew Lock Would Need to Finish a Top-16 QB
The conversation around the Denver Broncos this offseason has centered around Drew Lock and whether the third-year quarterback can take the next step in his development. The Broncos have strived to better the roster around him so there isn't as much pressure on his shoulders.
This is a team that knows it needs more from the quarterback and it's hoping to get it. Keeping in mind that he started 13 games but only played 12, here's how Lock's stats from last year, both box-score and advanced analytics, shook out.
- Completions: 254 (22nd)
- Attempts: 443 (20th)
- Completion Percentage: 57.3 (32nd)
- Yards: 2,933 (21st)
- Touchdowns: 16 (T-20th)
- Interceptions: 15 (T-1st)
- Turnover Worthy Plays: 23 (T-2nd)
- NFL Passer Rating: 75.4 (30th)
- Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 (T-25th)
- Average Depth of Target: 9.7 (1st)
- Adjusted Completion Percentage: 68.7 (32nd)
Note: This is out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 320 dropbacks.
It was a bad year for Lock with a lot of inefficiencies. Having the highest average depth of target isn't a bad thing if you're completing passes.
That's not to say that everything was Lock's fault. There were plenty of other issues with the Broncos' offense from injuries, coaching, player utilization, and drops, but today, we're talking about Lock and what he needs to do in order to become a top-16 quarterback.
Lock has started 18 games so far in his career with 17 full games, which is matches closely the now 17-game NFL season. Here's how he did.
Career Stats: 354-of-599 (59.1%), with an adjusted completion percentage of 70.0, for 3,953 yards, 23 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 31 turnover-worthy plays, 6.6 yards per attempt, and an average depth of target at nine yards. We'll come back to that.
To figure out what stats Lock would need to be a top-16 quarterback in the NFL, I looked at the last five seasons and the quarterback who came in at 16 in each category. From there, I averaged out those five seasons, figured the QBs' per-game average over 16 games and adjusted it for a 17-game season.
On a per-game basis, Lock would need to average 21-of-31 passing, 229.8 yards, and 1.4 touchdowns, while tossing 0.7 interceptions.
Average Stats Per Game Career: Over his 18 games, Lock has actually averaged 19.6-of-33.2 for 219.6 yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and one interception per game. So, he's close to that top-16 threshold but there are enough key areas that speak to his biggest obstacles so far. Again it isn't all his fault, but we are focusing on Lock.
The total stat line for what Lock needs really shows how far off he is from being a top-16 quarterback.
Top-16 Stat Requirement: Based on these averages, Lock would need to go 349-of-534 (65.4%) for 3,907 yards with an adjusted completion percentage of 74.3, with a 7.3 average yards-per-attempt. He would need to throw 24 touchdowns with 11 interceptions at most with only 20 turnover-worthy plays. His NFL rating would need to be 92.3 with an average depth of target at 8.7 yards.
Those are numbers Lock has barely met over his 18 games so far but it's not outside the realm of possibility for him to hit them. It would be a far bigger jump than some may realize but it isn't just about reaching those stats, it's about the efficiency of performance that comes with it.
Again, GM George Paton has built this team around Lock. The Broncos can't carry Lock and they need reliable, safe, and efficient quarterback play if they really want to make a push for the playoffs.
The bar has been set. Now Lock has to meet it.
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