PFF Urges Broncos to Make Blockbuster Draft Trade for QB

As the regular season came to a close and the Denver Broncos limped their way to a 5-11 finish, many thought the team would be hammering home the continuity key that many close to the organization had been championing in the last few weeks of December.

While it is likely the Broncos aren’t going to have a complete overhaul from the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster in 2021, continuity went out the window the moment John Elway decided to… be promoted by being relieved of his duties as general manager.

Elway will still have some say over some personnel decisions for the Broncos going forward, but all indications are that he will be in a role similar to that of Baltimore Ravens’ former GM and now executive advisor Ozzie Newsome. Instead, the Broncos' next general manager is going to hold the power and will have the final say in roster decisions when it comes to free agency and the NFL draft.

The one area that seems to be more up in the air now that Elway is stepping away from his former role is the future of Drew Lock and the quarterback position.

Perhaps it should come as no surprise that one of the most boisterous outlets when it comes to proclaiming just how valuable the quarterback position is would pound the table for the Broncos to be interested in selecting a QB, and perhaps even move up in the draft. Pro Football Focus identified the Broncos as one of five teams in position to be aggressive for a trade up in the draft for a QB, including the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, and New England Patriots.

PFF's Michael Renner suggested the following trade for the Broncos’ new GM:

PICK NO. 9: Denver Broncos

What it Would Take

Broncos get pick: 4

Broncos give picks: 9, 40, 111 + future 3rd

Ultimately, John Elway’s downfall in his tenure as general manager was his passiveness at the quarterback position. Whether it was Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum or now Drew Lock, Elway was always seemingly taking the draft or free agent leftovers at the most important position. While the NFL may not always hit on high picks, they are at least good at identifying talent deserving of high picks, as it’s been nearly impossible to find a quarterback outside of the top 15 over the past half-decade.

Now with Denver in fairly reasonable trade-up distance, that should change. It doesn’t mean giving up on Lock. It just means not putting all their eggs in the Lock basket like this past season. They now have too many playmakers on offense to put their playoff hopes on Lock’s inconsistency that led to a 63.4 passing grade in 2020. While the Broncos could wait and hope that one of the top guys falls all the way to nine, fans have seen too often how taking a quarterback after the rest have been picked over can turn out.

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Lay of the Land

With Elway now having one foot out the door when it comes to personnel decisions, it does seem like trading up for a quarterback is more of a possibility than had been thought possible previously. From insiders 9NEWS' Mike Klis suggesting the new GM will push to upgrade the quarterback position, and likely via the draft, to Woody Paige iterating much the same on Twitter, there is legitimate smoke to what seemed like a hypothetical fire just recently.

It's impossible to know until the new GM is hired, but no doubt, there are more possibilities on the table than before with Elway and his guy in Lock.

However, it does seem like, for the most part, the Broncos will not have sea-change turnover this year despite bringing in a new GM. The coaching staff is expected to return mostly intact — sorry for those that want special teams coordinator Tom McMahon gone. McMahon might be shown the door, but he could just as easily be back.

Some big decisions will be made on the likes of current big-time free agents like DL Shelby Harris and S Justin Simmons, as well as some tender questions revolving around restricted free agents like RB Phillip Lindsay, WR Tim Patrick, and LB Alexander Johnson.

It's no secret that Elway is and was one of the biggest proponents of Lock in the Broncos organization. When it was expected that Elway would return for 2021 as per usual, Lock was expected to get one more year as The Guy.

But with Elway now moving on to other areas of helping run a football team, Lock’s future is much more uncertain. Whether that is fair or not doesn’t really matter in a results-based business such as the NFL.

A new GM won’t be ‘married’ to Lock as the previous regime would have been. The door has cracked open for discussion, especially for the Broncos to be tempted by one of the top non-Trevor Lawrence quarterbacks in the 2021 draft class such as BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.

It’s also fair to wonder how head coach Vic Fangio feels about the QB position When asked to discuss Lock, it does not seem as if the old ball coach is completely sold on the QB as it currently stands.

“(Lock) can be [the guy again in 2021]," Fangio said on Tuesday. "He’s going to have to improve, which he knows, we all know. We got to eliminate the negative plays. We got to become more efficient in our whole operation offensively and as the quarterback, he’s the leader of that unit.”

Fangio didn't throw Lock under the bus by any means, but it certainly was not a ringing endorsement either. On top of what Fangio said in his end-of-season presser about Lock, would it be fair to assume he might like Lock less when he does go back to evaluate the tape?

Fangio has stated in the past that he likes to step away for a bit when the season is over so that way he doesn’t let recency bias influence his coaching and personnel decisions and eyes when watching tape. Lock played better down the stretch, no doubt, but given how Fangio likes to self-scout a season, is he going to look at that trend line as true progress?

Or will Fangio take the entire sample size of Lock’s season as a whole rather than weighting how the QB played after the season had slipped away? Perplexing questions indeed.

Whether or not you believe Lock can be a franchise quarterback eventually, through 17 games he hasn't been good enough to lead a team to a playoff berth. Sure, he could wind up having a Josh Allen-level turnaround and become a statistical outlier but counting on that to happen would be like buying scratch tickets and depending on the winnings to feed the family; a risky bet with a questionable probability of success.

Lock has started 17 games so far in his career, is already 24 years of age (compared to 22 for Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson and 21 for Lance), and has been a bottom-5 quarterback statistically and has struggled against average or better passing defenses.

Lock also has suffered two injuries in as many seasons that have caused him to miss time on top of the Broncos having just two years of control left on his rookie deal. Juxtapose that with a fresh five years for any hypothetical first-round rookie brought in.

Lock has the arm talent and enough athleticism to be a franchise QB, but 17 games is not an insignificant sample size. If your argument is 'we don’t know anything about Lock' after two seasons and 17 games, it means the Broncos, at the very least, need to evaluate the market.

I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to have this stance

We have seen enough bad Lock to warrant doing work on QB this class.

Lawrence is out of the picture but Fields, Lance, and Wilson are in striking distance via a trade most likely.
— Nick Kendell 🏔 (@NickKendellMHH) December 21, 2020

The Broncos’ may not make a blockbuster move up for QB in the 2021 draft. There will be other suitors for those QB prospects and the cost will not be small, but in order to compete in the AFC West over the coming decade with the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Lock will need to become, at minimum, a consistent top 10-to-15 level quarterback the Broncos can count on year in and year out.

Remember, even with his improvements down the stretch, Lock was a bottom-5 starter this season according to the stats. Can Lock become that a top-level QB or will Denver think it can do better and look elsewhere?

That is likely the first and most important question the Broncos GM hiring committee will serve up to every candidate with a hat in the ring.

Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.

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