ESPN Renders Conflicting Predictions on Broncos & Bo Nix in 2025

Are the Denver Broncos going to return to the playoffs or take a step back in 2025?

Dec 28, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) stands on the sidelines during the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Somehow, ESPN expects the Denver Broncos to break out in 2025 while also taking a step back. As contradictory as that sounds, it's a fun read with a panel of ESPN analysts predicting who makes the Super Bowl, the NFL MVP, general breakout candidates, and teams who could take a step back. 

ESPN's sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado has the Broncos as a team who could break out.

“After exceeding expectations in 2024, the Broncos are well positioned for success with a strong offensive line, defense and financial flexibility. They have roughly $50 million in cap space for this upcoming season, per Roster Management System," Maldonado wrote.

There's a lot of positive surrounding the Broncos already, and they're in a good position to fill persisting roster holes. That puts Denver in a good position to take the next step forward next year.

While Roster Management System has the Broncos at roughly $50 million in cap space, that doesn’t match up with Spotrac or Over The Cap, who have the Broncos sitting between $35 and $40 million in effective cap space. The Broncos could restructure multiple contracts, including Ben Powers, Mike McGlinchey, and Brandon Jones, among others, to nearly double their available cap space. 

With resources available and a wealthy ownership group, the salary cap can be easily manipulated, and the Broncos can stretch out the money. The growing use of void years also helps give the Broncos the ability to structure contracts to manipulate the salary cap and put the bigger cap hits in 2026, 2027, and even 2028, when Russell Wilson’s dead money is off the books and before any Bo Nix extension kicks in. However, 2028 would be Nix's fifth-year option. 

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Next, the ESPN panel tossed its picks for which team is poised to take a step back in 2025. Seth Walder, an analyst known for leaning into analytics, picked the Broncos.

“The simplest way to pick a regression candidate is to look for teams with elite defenses and mediocre offenses," Walder wrote. "It's just so hard to repeat defensive success year after year, and Denver ranked only 15th in EPA per play on offense. Yes, Bo Nix might progress in Year 2. But he also might not!”

Walder isn't wrong; the Broncos offense was mediocre, and the defense was elite, Nix's impressive rookie showing notwithstanding. You can even add that the defense fell off to close the season, leading to questions about whether it really was elite.

Defensive success is volatile and can be challenging to repeat year after year, but it isn’t so unheard of. Multiple defenses over the years have seen repetitive success season after season.

However, the kicker here is Walder's Nix comment. Yes, the Broncos QB could step forward with his development or have a sophomore slump.

Walder picked Keion White as his breakout player, but he might not take that step forward. He picked Patrick Mahomes as his MVP, and he could get hurt.

It's fair to think the Broncos could take a step back. I have no issue there, but to use “but he might not” as part of the reasoning for Nix’s progression isn’t a solid rationale. 

Whatever happens, one of these ESPNers will be proven right this upcoming season.

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