© Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Gut Reaction: Broncos Acquire QB Zach Wilson | What it Means for NFL Draft
It's time to sift through the implications of the Zach Wilson trade.
On Monday, just days ahead of the NFL draft, the Denver Broncos acquired quarterback Zach Wilson in a trade with the New York Jets. In what was essentially a pick swap — Denver giving the Jets a sixth-round pick in exchange for their seventh — it's a low-risk trade with the potential, as unlikely as it may be, of high reward.
Since even before the 2024 offseason began, the Broncos have been linked to just about every quarterback rumor. When Sean Payton opted to bench Russell Wilson with two games left to go, the writing was on the wall, and it read something like this:
The Broncos are back in the quarterback market.
The old regime in Denver — led by former GM John Elway — tried every which way to acquire a true franchise quarterback following Peyton Manning's retirement, but mostly erred on the side of various veteran options, from reclamation projects, to journeymen, to former Super Bowl champions. The last big veteran swing-and-a-miss was, of course, the Russell Wilson trade, and with the triggerman on that tectonic move still at Dove Valley, you'd think the Broncos would have wisened up.
For years, Elway seemed convinced that the Broncos were one middle-of-the-road QB away from winning it all again. But the foundation of that philosophy was built on unstable ground. In the wake of one failed QB experiment after another, and a slew of botched head-coaching hires, Elway eventually stepped down as GM, hiring Paton in 2021, and the Duke of Denver was eventually forced out of the Broncos' front office when the Walton/Penner group took over.
There's no such thing as a free-agent franchise quarterback. Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are the exceptions that prove the rule. And while Zach Wilson wasn't a free agent, the logic still mostly applies.
Broncos fans want to know: why Wilson? And how does Wilson impact Denver's plan in the draft?
Let's examine.
It's hard to say for sure what Sean Payton likes about Wilson, but he was the No. 2 overall pick out of BYU just three years ago. Although the 6-foot-2, 214-pound Wilson was basically a three-year starter at BYU before being drafted, he was mostly a one-year-wonder phenomenon.
With a previous career high being 2,382 yards and 12 touchdowns, Wilson passed for 3,692 yards and 33 scores as a junior (with just three interceptions), catapulting him up NFL draft boards. It was an impressive body of work, but it was 'buyer beware' due to a small sample size of upper-echelon production.
The Jets did not heed the one-year-wonder warning label, arguably over-drafting Wilson. As the first draft pick of the Robert Saleh era in New York, Wilson struggled mightily to acclimate to the NFL game.
Wilson went 3-10 as a rookie starter in 2021, which was followed by a 5-4 record in 2022. When the Jets had the opportunity to land Aaron Rodgers in a trade with the Green Bay Packers, nothing Wilson had produced would preclude them from pulling the trigger.
But Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury to open the 2023 campaign, catapulting Wilson back into the starting lineup. The former BYU star would go on to start 11 games for the Jets (4-7), totaling 2,271 passing yards and eight touchdowns, with seven interceptions.
The shining success of Wilson's third season was defeating Payton and the Broncos in Denver back in Week 5, delivering some cold revenge for his new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. The Jets flirted with AFC relevancy for a moment there mid-season, but it was short-lived.
It's the height of irony that Payton is taking Hackett's QB leavings yet again, especially after the Broncos head coach nuked his predecessor from orbit during training camp last year, castigating his wherewithal as a QB coach. Payton couldn't make it work with Russ, whom Hackett arguably ruined as Denver's head coach in 2022, but Zach? Yeah, let's give it the ol' college try.
Payton definitely elevated Russ far above and beyond anything Hackett achieved with him in 2022, helping the nine-time Pro Bowler surpass 3,000 yards passing and toss 26 touchdowns — a big improvement over the 16 scores he passed for the year prior. But the first Payton/Wilson marriage was far from pretty and doomed to fail, according Brees, anyway.
Is there any reason to believe a second Payton/Wilson marriage will shake out any differently? There is a big difference between Russ and Zach, not the least of which was the former's previously entrenched status as a franchise quarterback and The Guy™ in Denver. Zach is a busted former top-5 pick who's licking his wounds and looking for a fresh start in a new NFL city.
The expectations are entirely different. And stylistically, the two Wilsons are quite different quarterbacks.
We don't yet know if Payton plans to move forward with Zach as his QB1 in 2024. I very much doubt that Wilson is viewed as anything more than low-risk/high-reward hedge, but we'll know more about that by bedtime on Thursday night.
So how does Wilson's arrival in Denver impact Payton and Paton's plan in the draft? If the Broncos were prioritizing a quarterback in Round 1, I can't imagine that Wilson changes that objective.
The best predictor of future behavior (or production) is the past, and Wilson has woefully underdelivered as a pro. Payton helped resurrect Brees' career in New Orleans back in 2006, but this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison.
After all, Brees had established himself in San Diego, winning a lot of games and going to the Pro Bowl, before he suffered a career-threatening shoulder injury in the final game of the 2005 season. Payton courted Brees hard during 2006 free agency, and they went on to accomplish great things together, including a Super Bowl victory, and setting the former Purdue star on a Hall-of-Fame path.
Payton had reason to believe, based on his resume, that if his shoulder could hold up, Brees could deliver in New Orleans. And that's how it shook out. There is no such resume to hang one's hat on with Wilson. Much like a QB in the draft, everything is a projection relative to Wilson's future; the big difference being that he's now damaged goods.
Bottom Line
If this influences the Broncos' draft approach, it's likely only in how it relates to Payton's aggressiveness. The Wilson trade might minimize Payton's urge to trade up for a QB in the draft, but it doesn't eliminate Denver's need for a franchise guy.
If nothing else, Wilson's arrival could be a harbinger of Denver staying at No. 12 overall and taking the best available quarterback there. Based on the most recent predictions from the mock-draftsters across the fruited plain, that will be Oregon's Bo Nix.
To those Broncos fans who were dealt a withering blow of disappointment by the Wilson trade on Monday, I'd counsel you not to knee-jerk too hard quite yet. Wait to see what happens on Thursday night.
If the faith Broncos Country still has in Payton is justified, there's no need to worry that the team views Wilson as its QB solution for 2024. We'll know more about what the future holds at quarterback on Thursday night.
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