Broncos Given Lower Over/Under Win Projection Than Chiefs, Chargers

In the run-up to the 2025 NFL season, the oddsmakers set the Denver Broncos' over/under win total at 9.5 games. This came after the Broncos' 10-win playoff season in 2024.

Suffice it to say, the Broncos obliterated the over in 2025, winning 14 games and tying a franchise single-season record. They would go on to also win their first playoff game since 2015.

You'd think that would elevate Denver's over/under win number in the oddsmakers' eyes entering 2026, but you'd be wrong. DraftKings Sportsbook set the Broncos' over/under at 9.5, once again.

Denver Broncos Win Total

OVER 9.5 (-120)
UNDER 9.5 (+100)

A Tougher Schedule

Last year, Denver's strength of schedule was .422. This time around, as the reigning AFC West champions, the Broncos' strength of schedule is .514, giving them the 15th-toughest slate of opponents in 2026.

Is it leaps-and-bounds tougher? No, but that slight uptick in schedule toughness could cost the Broncos a win or two in the final standings.

Okay, so maybe the Broncos are unlikely to win 14 games again, but 11 or 12? That may be more likely, but it's certainly a far cry above 9.5 wins.

You have to wonder how much this over/under is influenced by Bo Nix's ankle injury suffered back in January and the slight setback in his recovery timeline. Nix fractured his ankle in the Broncos' 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs, and after surgery, the team set May and the beginning of OTAs as his return timetable.

This week, though, Nix went in for his med-check with his surgeon, which led to him going back under the knife for a "clean-up procedure," which may not have been completely unexpected, but it did reportedly reset his timetable to training camp (late July) instead of OTAs.

Forget the new timetable; the fact that Nix is coming off the third broken right ankle of his football career — one in high school, one in college, and one in the pros — the oddsmakers might have doubts about his 2026 outlook.

Let's face it. Without Nix, the Broncos would still be a formidable team in 2026, but they'd likely struggle to get to nine wins with Jarrett Stidham under center. So those question marks surrounding Nix's health outlook could be a factor behind Denver's over/under number not changing year-over-year, despite winning 14 games last season.

The Broncos have remained adamant that Nix will not only be back for the full 2026 season, but that his ankle will be stronger than ever. His timetable getting pushed back shouldn't change that belief, but it does cast some doubt because the Broncos said he'd be good by May... and now it's going to be late July.

When the season-opener rolls around, Nix will be out there for the Broncos. And so long as he is, a double-digit win total is what likely awaits this team, which is coming off a disappointing end to its 2025 campaign, where it was one win away from the Super Bowl.

The Broncos are going to be hungry and motivated, but they'll need their burgeoning franchise quarterback in order to reach their full potential. That's for sure.

AFC West Over/Unders

Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes meet at midfield after the Broncos beat the Chiefs in Denver. — DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 16: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) meets Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) on the field after a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on November 16, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

As for the other three teams of the AFC West, DraftKings Sportsbook set their over/under totals as follows:

Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 wins
Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 wins
Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5 wins

You read that right; the oddsmakers expect the Chiefs and Chargers to win more games than the Broncos. This won't help the prevailing belief within Broncos Country that the team can't seem to buy the national respect it deserves.

It's not as if the Chiefs don't have major health questions entering 2026, after Patrick Mahomes's season ended with a brutal knee injury. The Chiefs are getting older, while Justin Herbert and the Chargers always seem to find a way to... well, 'Charger.'

11 One-Score Wins

11 of the Broncos' 14 wins last season were of the one-score variety, which can create some high variance outcomes the following year, historically speaking. That could be playing a part here, too.

But the 2024 Chiefs also had 11 one-score wins, and that didn't affect their over/under projections in the oddsmakers' eyes the following year, though they did fall to just six wins in 2025. Now, the Chiefs were a more proven team, with multiple Super Bowl rings in the preceding seasons entering 2025.

The Takeaway

There are likely several factors in why the oddsmakers are setting the Broncos up below the Chiefs and Chargers this year. There are questions surrounding the Broncos, and Payton and Nix will surely be relishing the opportunity to answer them, with gusto.

If nothing else, this 9.5-win over/under being a full game behind the Chiefs and Chargers will serve as fine bulletin-board material for Sean Payton when the Broncos recovene for OTAs.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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