Broncos Predicted to Fall Short of Expectations in 2026—Examining the Argument

Not everybody is buying the Denver Broncos in 2026. But is the argument legit?

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 21: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) reacts after a pressured pass resulted in an injured receiver in the fourth quarter during a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on December 21, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. | Dustin Bradford Icon Sportswire / IMAGO

Despite winning 14 games last season, the oddsmakers set the Denver Broncos up with a 9.5-win over/under projection for 2026. 9.5 wins was the same total given to Denver last season, on the heels of a 10-win playoff campaign.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers were set up with a 10.5 win over/under. The Chiefs won six games last season, while the Chargers won 11.

Since that 9.5-win over/under was set, the NFL dropped its 2026 schedule, and suffice it to say, the Broncos have a tough road ahead. It's made folks like Sports Illustrated's Gilbert Manzano a lot more cautious about the Broncos' outlook, relative to the 9.5-win over/under.

In fact, Manzano is taking the under on the Broncos in 2026, meaning he doesn't expect them to win 10 games.

"I don’t believe the trade for Jaylen Waddle, who hasn’t cracked 1,000 receiving yards since 2023, will solve all the concerns on the offensive side. This team has been too reliant on the defense and that could continue if the new-look offense needs time to get acclimated. But I’m not fully confident in this bet. Coach Sean Payton has gotten better results in each of the three seasons he’s been in Denver," Manzano wrote.

Manzano also took the under on the Chiefs, but he took the over on the Chargers. Let's examine his thought process on the Broncos.

The Waddle Addition

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

While it's true that Waddle hasn't exceeded 1,000 yards receiving since 2023, he came just short last season, with 910. In 2024, he missed two games, which is rare for him, finishing with 744 yards.

If we're looking in the rear-view on Waddle, we have to address the quarterback instability he dealt with in Miami during his last few seasons there. Between Tua Tagovailoa's injury problems and the low quality of backup quarterback play the Dolphins fielded, Waddle's numbers suffered.

Wide receiver is a quarterback-dependent position, after all, which puts the 1,654 receiving yards Waddle totaled over his last two seasons in Miami in perspective. It's actually an impressive mark considering the circumstances.

In Denver, Waddle joins an offense on the rise, with quarterback Bo Nix entering his third year and a solid supporting cast, including Pro Bowl receiver Courtland Sutton. Waddle doesn't have to be Batman in Denver, but defenses will have to play the Broncos much more honestly, because if they shade coverage toward Sutton, Nix will beat them with Waddle, and vice versa.

Defensive Reliance

As it applies to the defense, I would agree that the Broncos have relied heavily upon the unit over the past two seasons. The Broncos have invested in their defense, and it has blessed the team.

The defense would keep games close in the games where Nix maybe struggled initially or the Broncos' ground game couldn't get on its feet, buying the quarterback time and the opportunity to make a late-game push. Nix always answered the bell in the clutch, even when the game seemed out of reach.

The Broncos won 11 one-score games last season, and that was the model, which can come with high year-over-year outcome variance. Sean Payton has talked about that. The Broncos would be remiss to rely on Nix always having to storm back late in order to win games.

To me, that's a legit concern. Even the Chiefs, who also won 11 one-score games in 2024, bounced the other way in 2025. It was like the Chiefs couldn't win a close game to save their lives.

On one hand, you want a quarterback and team that can be relied upon to deliver in the clutch, because so many NFL games nowadays come down to the closing minutes. On the other, relying on it as a model for success is like tempting fate because the ball won't always bounce in your direction.

Offense Must Step Up

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 04: Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton, Bo Nix, and Davis Webb discuss a play. | Kevin Langley / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

The truth is, Nix and the offense need to be more consistent throughout all four quarters of play in 2026. Payton recognizes that, which is part of why he made the eyebrow-raising decision to hand over the play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Davis Webb.

Webb's impact could redound to stunning success for the Broncos' offense, if Payton's gut is right. It also has the potential to blow up in Denver's face, as Webb is a first-time play-caller in the NFL.

However, even if worse came to worse, Payton remains the last line of defense. If your team's fail-safe offensively is one of the most brilliant and forward-thinking offensive minds of the 21st century, you're in good shape.

The Takeaway

Right now, folks like Manzano aren't buying the Broncos in 2026, and there are some just reasons for it. But that line of thinking misses how far the Broncos have come since Payton arrived in 2023.

Last season exposed the Broncos to so many close and big-game scenarios, in which they prevailed. The confidence the Broncos gleaned from that experience cannot be overstated.

Nix's health status is also a concern (until it's not), but the Broncos also have a lot more going for them in 2026 than they do cutting against them. They returned 90% of their snaps from last season's 14-win team, they added Waddle and fourth-round running back Jonah Coleman to serve as some J.K. Dobbins insurance, and they made a huge offensive shift by giving the reins to Webb, who, let's remember, was a hot commodity in the head-coach hiring cycle this past January.

So, I understand the skepticism. I just don't agree with it. Even in the face of this tough schedule, including the first six weeks, the Broncos proved they're on another level now, and can be counted on to contend.

Note: All over/under win totals courtesy of DraftKings. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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