What Broncos’ Big Upset Win Means for AFC West & Playoff Picture

Here's how the Denver Broncos' big upset win over the Green Bay Packers reshaped the divisional and conference race.

Dec 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates a touchdown with offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey (69) during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

With their win over the Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos have officially clinched a playoff berth. However, the AFC West is still up for grabs, and the Broncos will have to either get help or wait a while before they have the opportunity to clinch the division and secure the top playoff seed in the AFC. 

Chiefs Eliminated

The Los Angeles Chargers' win officially eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention, but it keeps them within reach of the division. It doesn’t help that the Broncos lost their first matchup earlier in the season, giving the Chargers an edge in the division. 

Broncos Can't Clinch AFC West Yet

The Broncos still have a two-game lead with three games left, so a win next week and a Chargers loss could clinch the AFC West for Denver. However, the Chargers are surging and play a struggling Dallas Cowboys team, and if the Chargers win, Denver can’t clinch the division until Christmas Day. 

No. 1 Playoff Seed Not In the Bag

Dec 14, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton stands on the sidelines during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

A win isn’t enough next week for the division or the top seed in the AFC, even with the Buffalo Bills beating the New England Patriots on Sunday. If the Broncos want to clinch the top seed, they'll have to win and have the Patriots, Bills, and Chargers lose. If any one of those teams wins, they would still be in contention for the top seed in the AFC

That would put Denver at 12-2, the Patriots at 11-4, and the Bills and Chargers at 10-5, respectively. Denver would hold the common-opponent tiebreaker over the Patriots, which it secured by beating the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and would have a three-game lead with only two games left over the Chargers for the division and the Bills for the top seed. 

Of course, Denver has to get it done first and beat a tough 10-win Jacksonville Jaguars team that has been surging offensively since trading for Jakobi Meyers. The simple fact is, the Broncos control their own fate, and as long as they win, the division and conference are theirs. 

If the Broncos can clinch by Week 16, they can rest some banged-up players and give them extra time to heal for the playoffs against the Chiefs on Christmas Day. Then, Denver could rest its starters against the Chargers in the finale to avoid any injuries before the playoffs. 

The Takeaway

Denver got the job done against the Packers to clinch a postseason spot, and got some help to the overall playoff picture this week, so hopefully it can happen again. With how spotty the defense has been, the Broncos have a challenge ahead next week, but fortunately, they have already overcome some tough challenges. 

The division and top seed in the AFC are within Denver's grasp. The Broncos have to take hold of it, and for a team that has had internal Super Bowl belief since June, there is no reason to doubt them when it comes to finding a way to get it done.