A New Metric Casts Broncos' Strength of Schedule in a New Light

While the NFL hasn't yet announced the full schedule for the 2026 season, the Denver Broncos already know their opponents. The Broncos are set to face the AFC East and NFC West, along with their AFC West rivals and the first-place teams in the AFC North, AFC South, and NFC South.

We'll get into the specific teams later, but plenty of fans will note that the Broncos will face nine teams that made the playoffs last season. The expectation is they will face a tougher schedule than they did in 2025. The oddsmakers set Denver's projected over/under win total at 9.5.

Rating the strength of schedule, though, is another question. While basing the strength of schedule on how well the opponents did last year is often the measure utilized, Warren Sharp at Sharp Football Analysis uses a different metric.

Sharp ranked the strength of schedule for all NFL teams based on projected win totals from Las Vegas oddsmakers. The Broncos had the 11th-easiest schedule based on that metric.

A Different SOS Metric

Let's first look at Sharp's argument about utilizing this metric rather than simply looking at how teams did last year. Here is part of his case.

"NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development. Additionally, the NFL's 17-game season is a small sample size. Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes," Sharp wrote.

Sharp makes some valid points here. We can look at examples of Broncos games decided by luck, such as their 2024 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, when a would-be game-winning field-goal attempt was blocked.

Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes. — Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) talks with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15). | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Sticking with the Chiefs, fans know they lost many close games while the Broncos won a lot of them. In plenty of cases, these games came down to the little things, such as a costly penalty, a dropped pass, or a failed fourth-down conversion.

"From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team's actual SOS was explained by opponents' prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years," Sharp wrote.

The predicted win totals Sharp cites are more about projecting how a team is expected to fare in the coming season based on personnel and coaching changes, and on players who are either expected to return from injury or may miss time at the start of the season.

While one can debate whether the predicted win metric is a better indicator of strength of schedule, it's worth looking at the teams the Broncos will face and see what's notable about them going into 2026.

Let's consider coaching changes, for example. Five Broncos opponents will have new head coaches: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Arizona Cardinals. How will these teams fare under new coaching regimes?

There's also roster turnover to consider. If we consider just the quarterback position, the Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, and Cardinals will have new starters.

And every team lost at least a couple of players in free agency, so the question will be whether those teams have the guys to replace them, and whether those players were already on the roster or were added in free agency or the draft.

Unanswered Questions

If we were to take a quick glance at the Broncos' opponents, though, there are questions we could ask about each of them. Let's consider one question for each opponent.

Chiefs: How long will it take for Patrick Mahomes to fully recover from his injuries?
Chargers: Can they do better on special teams?
Raiders: How competitive will Klint Kubiak make them this year?
Patriots: Can they duplicate their success from 2025?
Bills: Is Joe Brady going to do a better job of coaching than Sean McDermott?
Jets: Will Aaron Glenn do better in his second season as head coach?
Dolphins: Is it possible they're being sold short despite the massive roster turnover?
Steelers: Will they take a step back with Mike Tomlin gone?
Panthers: Did they just take advantage of a weak division?
Seahawks: How will they replace the key players they lost in free agency?
Rams: How much longer does Matthew Stafford have?
Niners: How much better will they be as they get back players lost to injury last season?
Cardinals: Could new head coach Mike LaFleur get more out of the roster than expected?
Jaguars: Is the fact that they were mostly quiet in free agency a good thing?

That question about the Jaguars — who only added one outside free agent and acquired one via trade — could be asked about the Broncos, too. But as you can see, every team has questions, whether they are about whether they are better or worse than projected.

The only way we'll know how strong the Broncos' schedule is, of course, once games are played. Along the way, we'll know which teams do the best job of winning close games, winning the games they should win on paper, and avoiding significant injuries.

We have about four months to go until the start of the regular season, and then we'll know more. In the meantime, while Sharp's analysis might not be a surefire way to determine the strength of schedule, there are some considerations it addresses that are worth keeping in mind.

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