Broncos' 2025 Strength of Schedule: Not as Tough as We Thought?

How difficult is the Denver Broncos' 2025 regular-season schedule?

Aug 9, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) drops back to pass in the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

As the Denver Broncos prepare for the regular season, the question will be how they build upon last year's 10-win campaign. The Broncos broke an eight-season streak of not making the playoffs, and while they had their issues, their defense improved a lot from 2023, and the offense showed promise.

One factor that could determine the Broncos' success this season is the schedule and the quality of their opponents. Plenty of sites will look at what happened in 2024 to determine the strength of the schedule, but that's not how Sharp Football Analysis does it.

Instead, SFA utilizes projected win totals for the 2025 season for each team to determine the strength of schedule. To that end, SFA ranks the Broncos 14th overall in terms of which team has the easiest schedule.

Another way to look at it is the Broncos have a league-average schedule, which is neither easy nor difficult. Let's examine why SFA doesn't take last season's records into account to determine the strength of schedule.

"NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development," wrote Warren Sharp, the founder of SFA. "Additionally, the NFL's 17-game season introduces a small sample size, where outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes. These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance."

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The Past Doesn't Always Predict the Future

Indeed, if anybody looked at past Broncos' seasons, they didn't always translate to the following year. Case in point: The Broncos were a mediocre team in 2023, but at least showed improvement over a disastrous 2022 season. From there, Denver improved in 2024 and made the playoffs.

In each of those seasons, the Broncos made changes to the roster, and from 2022 to 2023, they brought in a new coaching staff. This offseason, the Broncos added some players in free agency and the draft and will have a new special teams cooordinator.

Factors such as these are the reason why one shouldn't look to last season's records to determine how good the Broncos' opponents will be. And while the Vegas projected wins aren't a perfect measure, they do not consider team performance in 2024, but instead consider the changes teams made during the offseason.

One thing worth mentioning is that the Broncos' actual strength of schedule for 2024 ranked 11th, based on the traditional way it's measured, per SFA. While the Broncos had what one would consider a fairly easy schedule last season, it has gotten a little more challenging, based on projections.

How tough the schedule actually turns out remains to be seen, but we do know that the schedule has improved a bit in terms of strength, at least on paper. If the Broncos make the playoffs again, and the strength-of-schedule projection holds up, that's a sign they have improved.

And as Sharp noted, seven of the 10 teams with the easiest schedules in the NFL last season produced winning records, with six making the playoffs. Although ranking 14th in the schedule doesn't make the playoffs a given, it's not that difficult, either.

Of course, what matters is how teams perform on the field. Factors such as injuries, big plays, and luck going a certain way can impact a team's performance.

But we can at least expect the Broncos to be challenged a bit more this season. And if they do make the playoffs, especially if they win more than 10 games, it can only be seen as a positive sign, particularly if that strength-of-schedule projection holds up.