Broncos’ Free Agency Gamble Is Rooted in Hard Data-Based Truths

Throughout the NFL, multiple teams have signed free agents from other teams to sizable contracts. The exceptions were teams like the Denver Broncos, who added just one free agent from another team to an inexpensive deal, that being former Cincinnati Bengals safety Tycen Anderson.

The Broncos did make a splash when they traded for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, but otherwise, it was a quiet offseason focused mostly on retaining their own players.

Some will ask why the Broncos didn't try to find upgrades for certain players in free agency, and while it's fair to ask, it's also fair to wonder whether any available upgrades would have panned out.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell asked whether teams that signed free agents to noteworthy deals believed they spent that money wisely. He examined the top 50 free agents at each position by average annual salary from each offseason between 2013 and 2022.

We'll go over some of the data and see what may be reflected in the Broncos' free-agent activity since Sean Payton became head coach, to see whether the front office might have noticed some of the trends Barnwell identified.

First, let's examine how Barnwell rated each player. He assigned every player a value from 6 to 0, with 6 being an elite player, 5 being a high-end starter, 4 being a good starter who slightly exceeded expectations, 3 being a case of "you get what you paid for," 2 being a mild disappointment, 1 being a major disappointment, and 0 being a disaster.

Anything rated 3 or above could be called "worth it," though 4 or above may be preferable, while 2 or below would be a failed signing.

We'll first look at a couple of noteworthy Broncos free agents to start, then come back to what Barnwell noticed when it came to each position.

Broncos' Notable Free Agent Ratings

Dec 30, 2018; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Case Keenum (4) scrambles with the ball in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers at Broncos Stadium at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Barnwell's methodology was to rank players based on most expensive to least expensive, relative to the salary cap for the current year. In other words, a player signed in 2013 wasn't likely to get the salary of one signed in 2022, simply because the salary cap was significantly higher.

This would explain why players such as DeMarcus Ware and Ja'Wuan James didn't make Barnwell's top 30. While both players got significant deals at the time they were signed, they didn't necessarily reach the level that would put them among the highest for the year in which they signed

Case Keenum was the only Broncos player Barnwell examined who made the top 30. At No. 11, Keenum got two years for $36 million and played just one season (2018), in which he looked like the backup quarterback he was for most of his career. Keenum was then traded to Washington during the 2019 offseason. Barnwell graded Keenum at 2 (slight disappointment).

Other signings didn't make the top 30, but we can certainly judge the likely ratings for certain players based on what they contributed. For the Broncos' 2014 free-agent haul, they all turned out to be quality signings.

Ware, T.J. Ward, Aqib Talib, and Emmanuel Sanders would all rate as either 3 or 4 because of what they contributed in their time with the Broncos. It's that free-agent haul that no doubt people remember as the one to argue for why you need to add veterans from other teams.

The flipside, of course, is a signing like James, which was a definite 0. The same would also apply to another right tackle, Menelik Watson, who signed with the Broncos in 2017, and though he got less money than James, he was similar in that he played hardly any snaps.

Edge rusher Randy Gregory would rate either 0 or 1, depending on how much credit you want to give him for his play in 2022 before he got injured.

Perhaps we'll revisit the ratings for all such Broncos free agents from other teams who got significant deals, but let's get back to the data Barnwell uncovered.

What the Free Agency Analysis Found

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga (9) reacts against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A key finding of Barnwell's is that 30.2% of free agent signings came out as mildly disappointing, while 25% were average (or what you'd call "you get what you paid for"). Again, getting an average signing isn't a bad thing, but some might argue you want more than that. After that, at 18.6%, came free agent signings described as "very disappointing."

As Barnwell notes, free-agent signings work out about 41% of the time, either living up to the contract signed or exceeding it. He adds that, in that context, free agents signed from other teams can be valuable.

Safeties

When it came to particular positions, this is where things get interesting. Barnwell's data showed that safeties were the most productive position in free agency, with 60% at least delivering as expected.

As it turns out, the Broncos are a good example of this. The signings of Ward and, later, Kareem Jackson, worked out well for the most part. More recently, the Broncos added Brandon Jones and Talanoa Hufanga, both of whom have played well, relative to the money they received.

Interior Defensive Line

Next up was defensive tackle, or interior defender, if you prefer, with a success rate of 49.1%. The Broncos have done reasonably well here, as evidenced by the signing of Zach Allen. There's also D.J. Jones, who may have been overpaid, but he's at least shown enough value to the team to earn a second contract with the Broncos.

Interior Offensive Line

After that comes the interior offensive line with a success rate of 41.5%. When it comes to the Broncos, your mileage may vary with the likes of Ronald Leary and Graham Glasgow, who both played well at first, but then both got injured, and then, they weren't as good.

Ben Powers has fared better, even after getting injured last season, and the Broncos opted to retain him amid rumors of a possible trade.

Tight Ends

Then we come to the positions that haven't fared as well. Free-agent tight ends had a success rate of just 33.3%.

There is a former Bronco who is among those tight end signings that didn't work out, as Julius Thomas had much success in his final two seasons with the Broncos, then signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2015, but never reached that level of success again.

During the time period Barnwell examined, Owen Daniels would be the most notable tight end signed from another team. He lasted just one season before being cut. More recently, the Broncos added Evan Engram in 2025, but he didn't live up to expectations in his first year with the team.

Running Back

When it comes to running back, Barnwell noted it's a small sample size when it came to significant deals, with just 10 backs from 2013 to 2022 examined. However, during that time, the Broncos added Melvin Gordon, who was solid in terms of yardage and touchdown production, but his ball security issues always seemed to flare up at the worst possible times.

Linebacker

Linebacker is a position with decent success in free agency at 40%. However, the Broncos recently had a bad taste in their mouth after the failed signing of Dre Greenlaw.

Otherwise, it's been mostly lower-cost signings, such as Alex Singleton, who signed for the veteran minimum in 2022 before being rewarded with a large deal in 2023. He was re-signed again earlier this month.

The Takeaway

Denver Broncos GM George Paton and head coach Sean Payton. | Gabriel Christus/Denver Broncos

Barnwell's data, combined with some recent free-agent signings not panning out, might explain in part why the Broncos chose not to add many from another team at the positions they needed the most help, those being tight end, running back, and linebacker.

While running back was a small sample size, it's only more recently we've seen such players work out well, at least in their first season with a new team, such as Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry. However, in all three cases, their production declined in their second seasons with their new teams.

Tight end is a position at which there really hasn't been a great track record in free agency based on Barnwell's data. In the case of the Broncos, perhaps Engram can play better in 2026, but the returns in 2025 were not encouraging.

As for linebacker, there's the Greenlaw signing not working out, while Singleton worked better even if he may not be as talented. What happened with Greenlaw might have been enough for the Broncos to pass on free-agent linebackers, even if Barnwell's data showed reasonable success at that position in free agency.

All of this is to say that the Broncos may have believed it was better to keep the players they knew well instead of risking more money on a player from another team, particularly when the money given out was significant.

But given that the Broncos have had better outcomes at those positions with lower-cost signings — with Singleton and J.K. Dobbins being two examples — it wouldn't be surprising if they add such a signing either before or after the draft. The latter may be more likely if the Broncos want to first see whether they can fill their needs with the picks they have.

Of course, Barnwell's data isn't a be-all, end-all discussion about free agency, whether overall or for a particular position. But it might be something the Broncos have observed, and if so, it may have dictated their decision-making this time around.

We'll see whether the Broncos' strategy pays off — and the only way to know that is to see what happens when the 2026 season gets underway.

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