Broncos See Major Super Bowl Boost in Latest PFF Simulation

The Broncos are rising.

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks with quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are surging. On the heels of winning the AFC West crown for the first time since 2015, the Broncos were riding high — then the Los Angeles Chargers announced that Justin Herbert and others wouldn't play in the season finale.

Some view that as the Chargers gifting the Broncos the No. 1 seed, since a win in Week 18 would guarantee Denver that playoff seeding. Either way, the Broncos' path to the Super Bowl is looking strong, so long as they take care of business vs. the Chargers on Sunday.

Pro Football Focus would concur. In PFF's Super Bowl simulator, the Broncos have the best odds of winning it all, at 17%. The Seattle Seahawks are the next highest at 13.9%.

Could that be a preview of the Super Bowl? Another Broncos-Seahawks throwdown on the big stage? Time will tell.

In PFF's simulator, the Broncos are projected to go to the Super Bowl 30% of the time. In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills have the next-highest chance to win the Super Bowl, per PFF's simulator, at 8.7%, followed by the Houston Texans (8.5%) and New England Patriots (7.4%).

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Importance of the No. 1 Seed

Dec 25, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

One of the benefits of winning the No. 1 playoff seed is a first-round bye. As Sean Payton talked about on Monday, that's one less game that could go wrong for the Broncos that their opponent has to survive.

"These games are three hours long. The first reason would be, you skip a game in which you’re at risk to not play well or an opponent all of a sudden has a great game," Payton said of the importance of the No. 1 seed. "You skip the threat of potentially losing a game, if that makes any sense. You skip right to the next round."

However, then comes the 'Rest vs. Rust' question. Will a Wildcard-Round bye redound to a better rested Broncos team in the Divisional Round? Or will they be rusty, having not played since Week 18?

Payton errs on the side of rest, obviously, grateful for the right to skip a single-elimination playoff game in the Wildcard Round.

The other big benefit of the No. 1 seed is owning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Broncos have only lost at home once this season — a weird stinker of a performance vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars (6.3%) in Week 16 — and are a much better team in front of the Mile High Faithful, especially on offense.

"To be able to play in front of our fans with the crowd noise, the atmosphere. I don’t know, it’s been a while since they’ve hosted a playoff game," Payton said. "Certainly, it’s a fan base that deserves that opportunity. I get excited for them, and I get excited for our team."

Having the home crowd behind them will be a big boon for the Broncos throughout the playoffs, but they'll have to take care of business first vs. the Chargers and secure the No. 1 playoff seed. Payton wants that No. 1 seed, so you can count on the Broncos being ready to rock vs. the Herbert-less Chargers.

"Man, all of it is important," Payton said. "Having been through this like nine, 10 other times, you’ve seen it all, and you recognize how important it is: The challenge of winning playoff games on the road and how much more difficult that it is as opposed to trying to win them at home.”

What world are we living in? A year ago, the Broncos had to win their Week 18 game just to secure the No. 7 seed and the last spot in the playoffs.

Today, the Broncos are viewed as the Super Bowl favorite in PFF's simulator. The times, they are a-changin'.