Broncos Have Strong Playoff Odds Despite Being Home Underdogs To Chiefs

The Denver Broncos have put themselves in a great position to face the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time this season, despite opening as home underdogs to their bitter AFC West rival.

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks to tight end Marcedes Lewis before the game at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

It's always fun reading a power rankings roundup, but they're based on opinions. The NFL's running playoff picture, however, is the true reality of where teams rank.

Entering Week 11's tilt vs. the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs, the 8-2 Denver Broncos currently hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC behind the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts. At the No. 3 seed, it's the 8-2 New England Patriots, followed by the 5-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 4), the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers (No. 5), the 6-3 Buffalo Bills (No. 6), and the 5-4 Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 7).

The Broncos have a 92% chance at making the playoffs. But five of their last seven opponents currently have a plus-.500 record, so the road ahead is going to be treacherous. However, Denver's bye comes after the Chiefs (Week 12), so those two weeks will afford the Broncos with precious time to get healthy and recharge for the stretch run.

"Denver played one of the ugliest offensive games you’ll see on Thursday, but beat the Raiders to get to 8–2 while riding a seven-game winning streak. Next Sunday, the Broncos host the Chiefs in the biggest game they’ve played in a decade," Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame wrote.

It's certainly a big game, but if the playoffs started tomorrow, the Chiefs would be out. But there's still a lot of season left to play, including the pivotal stretch run wherein the Broncos will face the Chiefs again on Christmas Day, and the Chargers one last time in the finale.

Were it not for the Broncos' heartbreaking 29-28 loss to the Colts in Week 2, which hung on an exceedingly rare 'leverage' penalty call as time expired, they'd be the No. 1 seed, and the Colts would be 7-3. If 'ifs and buts' were candy and nuts, though, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

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Home Dogs vs. Chiefs

Jan 5, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Broncos enter Week 11's matchup with the Chiefs as 3.5-point home underdogs. Despite the gap in the two teams' respective records, the oddsmakers favor the Chiefs, in all likelihood, due to their historical dominance in the AFC West and because the Broncos haven't looked like a juggernaut commensurate with their record of late.

The Broncos' defense certainly has looked every bit a championship-caliber unit, but Bo Nix and the offense have been shockingly bad and maddeningly inconsistent since blowing out the Dallas Cowboys 44-24 in Week 8. The NFL isn't sure what to make of the slumping Nix, and it's certainly effecting the spread.

The Chiefs haven't won in Denver since 2022, but that's not being taken into consideration, it seems, by the oddsmakers. After the Chiefs won 16 straight games vs. the Broncos, Sean Payton snapped the ignominious streak in his first year as head coach.

The fact that the Broncos are home underdogs, despite being 8-2, is actually a favorable development because Payton will surely use to his team's emotional advantage. Oh, the disrespect, etc.

Don't Sleep on L.A.

As the head coach in Denver, Payton has split with the Chiefs each season, but has won every home game vs. Andy Reid's club. The Broncos will continue to be focused on vanquishing the Chiefs because they've won the division for nine straight seasons, but the Chargers cannot be slept on.

Jim Harbaugh has his team at 7-3, and they've already defeated the Broncos in L.A. Payton has yet to beat Harbaugh's Chargers, but he'll get his rematch at home in Week 18. Between now and then, though, the Broncos have to take care of business, especially at home.

The Chiefs are coming off a bye, so they're going to be rested and highly motivated to not only climb the AFC West ladder, but avenge the 38-0 zero-burger the Broncos fed their second-team players in the season finale last year while the starters rested for the playoffs. This game is going to be intense.