The Surtain Injury is a Huge Opportunity for Broncos DC Vance Joseph

The Denver Broncos maintained their one-game lead in the AFC West by smashing the Dallas Cowboys 44-24 in Week 8. The Broncos climbed to 6-2 on the season.

Holding the vaunted Cowboys offense, which entered the game as the second-best EPA/Play offense in the league, to just 24 points (with a touchdown surrendered in garbage time), the Broncos' defense put together another stellar outing.

The Surtain Injury

The play against Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and an offensive line boasting three first-round picks is even more impressive when considering the Broncos were without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year for half the game after Patrick Surtain II suffered an ankle injury in the first drive only to come back into the game and suffer a pectoral injury to close out the first half.

While it still has not been announced whether Surtain’s injury will result in the defensive superstar landing on injured reserve, which would mandate that he misses at least four games, the Broncos seem poised to take the field without their No. 1 cornerback for the foreseeable future. First reported by NFL insider Jordan Schultz, Surtain is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with the injury before being able to return to the field.

Importance of the Next Few Games

Through the first portion of the regular season, the Broncos’ defense has been arguably the best unit in the entire NFL. Fielding an aggressive pass rush paired with man coverage on the back end (the Broncos have played the second-highest rate of Cover 0 in the NFL at 7% and the fourth-highest rate of Cover 1 at 32%), the onus of how the defense will compensate for the lack of the best secondary player in the NFL falls on defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

This upcoming spell of games without Surtain will be important in determining whether the Broncos can hold off the Kansas City Chiefs to win the division and host a playoff game. Also, how the Broncos' defense adjusts and plays without its lynchpin could be key in polishing Joseph’s head-coaching resume entering this upcoming offseason.

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Joseph's Rehabilitated Coaching Resume

Oct 13, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph calls out in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

After a disappointing first go as a head coach in Denver from 2017-2018, on top of a rough first few weeks as the Broncos' defensive coordinator under Sean Payton, Joseph’s defense has been one of the best in the league over the last two seasons, ranking first in defensive EPA/Play over that timespan.

Many would point to the Broncos' overall talent on that side of the ball, making the job of Joseph easier compared to other coordinators. While Denver has standouts as any good unit does, the Broncos’ defense features just one former first-round pick in a prominent role, in the now-injured and unavailable Surtain.

Adjusting to Life Without PS2

So, without Surtain available for the next chunk of games, how does Joseph adjust, how does the Broncos’ defense respond? In the words of Joseph himself, “Everything we do starts with Pat.”

Do the Broncos shift to a less aggressive combination of pass rush paired with coverage to protect the thinned secondary? Or does Denver continue to live by the sword and rush aggressively with a combination of man and Cover 3 on the back end?

Given the Broncos' types of bodies up front, on top of the depth in the cornerback room, it seems they will likely continue their current style of play and scheme instead of shifting things around. The pressure-oriented front paired with man coverage is as much a mentality for the defense as anything, and changing the formula could lead to a trickle-down effect of problems.

However, if Denver does maintain a similar style of defensive play-calling, one should probably expect a few more explosive plays given up by the Broncos, which, despite playing such a blitz-oriented defense, is one of the league’s best at not giving up such plays.

Broncos Have Answers

Thanks to the scouting and drafting of GM George Paton and the Broncos’ front office, paired with the development and putting players in position to succeed by Joseph and his defensive staff, the team has answers to help keep things afloat at cornerback while awaiting Surtai’s return.

Will Denver trot former fifth-round pick Kris Abrams-Draine to the perimeter again as it did against Dallas? Or will the 20th overall selection — Jahdae Barron — be shifted to the outside from his 'dimebacker' and tight end eraser role?

How will Ja’Quan McMillan and Riley Moss handle playing without Surtain shutting down one side of the field? Furthermore, will linebacker Dre Greenlaw's re-insertion into the defense change the dynamic of the front seven?

Finishing Touches on VJ's HC Resume

Joseph has certainly been fortunate to coach a defense that has the reigning Defensive Player of the Year locking down No. 1 receivers, while allowing the rest of the players to play an attacking style of defense.

How Joseph and his players hold down the fort over the next 4-6 weeks will go a long way toward determining whether the Broncos can actually dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West and break their streak of nine consecutive division titles.

The job Joseph has done in working with Payton and his coaching tree over the past three years (two of Payton’s offensive staff of previous years are now offensive coordinators in John Morton with the Detroit Lions and Declan Doyle with the Chicago Bears) speaks for itself. Should Joseph's defense continue to play well without arguably the best back-seven player in the entire NFL, his head-coaching stock could skyrocket.

If the Broncos' defense can play relatively close to the standard of play it has set over the last few seasons without Surtain, not only will they vault themselves into being legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but Joseph should solidify himself as one of the better head-coaching candidates this cycle.

Given Joseph’s ability with in-season as well as in-game adjustments, his experience and success over multiple iterations of defenses over the years, and his ability to maximize players and put them in the best position to succeed given their specific skill sets over the past three years, he has a real chance at getting a second bite at the NFL head-coaching apple.