Buccaneers Hit With Realistic Projection in 2026 ESPN Guide

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe that they have squashed all qualms about their roster with their uber-successful NFL Draft and are now looking forward to the season following the official announcement of their 2026 schedule.

Many have tried to dissect the Bucs' schedule to determine whether or not they will return to relevance after missing out on the playoffs last season. The projected success of the Bucs has seen a wide range of outcomes, but according to the ESPN NFL and Fantasy Football Senior Writer Mike Clay, Tampa Bay will squeak out just one more win than its 2025 win total.

ESPN's Projected Wins for Bucs: 9

It's an extremely realistic scenario for the Bucs, as they have finished with 10 or fewer wins in four of their last five seasons. Vegas oddsmakers also currently have the Bucs sitting around a win total of 8.5 to 9 wins.

Clay's data-driven projection of the Buccaneers has Baker Mayfield having an average season, with solid production from Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell in the backfield. The Bucs wide receivers also show up in a big way, with Emeka Egbuka leading the group and securing his first 1,000-yard receiving season in the NFL.

The Bucs' offense doesn't quite return to the levels we saw in 2024, but they do enough to sit around the middle of the pack (16th) when looking across the league, per Clay's projections.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfiel — Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Clay also has the Buccaneers' defense improving from a season ago despite the retirement of legendary linebacker Lavonte David. Per his projections, the Bucs' defense isn't able to get many more sacks than they have the past few seasons, as he has them coming away with 41.8 sacks on the season, with Yaya Diaby leading the way with a projected seven sacks.

Clay has Antoine Winfield Jr. being the high interception guy for the Bucs' defense with two on the season. Overall, the defense is set to improve, per the projections, and would rank slightly above average across the league, finishing as the 13th-best defense in the league.

Overall, the Bucs are projected to finish as the 17th-best team in the NFL, which would likely place them in the playoffs, albeit with a potential early exit.

While it would be an improvement from last season, it's not exactly what many would be hoping for. The Bucs have been itching to return to their early 2020s dominance, and with just nine wins in 2026, we could very well have the same offseason talking points about coaching and roster construction that we have had the past few seasons.

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