Chargers Dropping Bills, Chiefs in NFL Simulations Could Be a Sign of Things to Come

Is one set of NFL predictions realistic for the Chargers?

Omarion Hampton | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Los Angeles Chargers aren’t getting much love right now. 

Not that they normally do. There’s one lone voice making bold NFL predictions involving the Chargers. The rest, like NFL execs and coaches, don’t care for them. Some say disaster is on the way for Jim Harbaugh. 

But data and overall analytics matter arguably more than narratives. And one set of NFL simulations from ESPN simply loves the fact Justin Herbert finally has a modern play-caller like Mike McDaniel. 

Hard to argue, even if the Chargers aren’t national darlings compared to some major names. 

NFL simulations hint at deep Chargers playoff run and what it means

Justin Herbert | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With Week 1 looming, NFL predictions, simulations and the rest are all the rage right now. 

Taking the human element and narratives out of it, the Chargers tend to do pretty well. 

Case in point, ESPN’s Seth Walder posted a season simulation in which the Chargers finish 10-7 behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West…but go on a major run anyway. 

“The 12-5 Chiefs earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with the Chargers making the playoffs as the No. 5 seed at 10-7,” Walder wrote. “The Chargers got the last laugh, though, beating Kansas City 27-24 at Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional playoffs.”

So, for those wondering: 

• The Chargers beat the Ravens in the Wild-card round, 31-29
• The Chargers beat the Chiefs in the Divisional round, 27-24
• The Chargers beat the Bills in the AFC title game, 10-7

The Chargers end up losing the Super Bowl to the Detroit Lions via late field goal but…who is really complaining?

Fact is, for starters, the Chargers just need to end the playoff win drought under Harbaugh before anything else. If they miss the postseason or lose in an ugly fashion again, it’s going to create some ugly questions. 

Obviously, winning it all is ideal. And the analytical models that run these simulations sort of say it all: Herbert finally getting an elite coordinator creates a ceiling that few other teams can match. It helps that the defense is a mostly known commodity despite a coordinator change because they brought back a familiar coach, too. 

In all, fun predictions for the Chargers here. But it’s just one data set and an extreme example of upside. More than anything else, the offense needs to click and the injury bug needs to leave the Chargers alone for once.

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