Is It Worth It? The High-Stakes Gamble Behind the Chargers’ Comp Pick Obsession

The first week of the NFL's new league year and free agency is officially in the books. The Chargers, much to the frustration of fans, have been very cognizant of the compensatory pick formula in their maneuvers around free agency.

The Chargers franchise was led by general manager Tom Telesco for eleven seasons from 2013 to 2023. Under Telesco, the compensatory pick formula was much more of an afterthought than it was an apparent strategy.

The Chargers only received one compensatory pick in Telesco's first eight seasons as general manager. Finally, in 2021, the Chargers were awarded a second compensatory pick from the departure of Philip Rivers after the 2019 season. The formula simply had not been a factor for the Chargers until the arrival of current general manager Joe Hortiz.

Joe Hortiz imported the Baltimore Ravens compensatory pick factory strategy to Los Angeles. The Ravens have mastered the compensatory pick formula established with former general manager Ozzie Newsome, whom Joe Hortiz was an understudy as he rose through Baltimore's front office ranks.

What is the compensatory pick formula?

The compensatory pick formula is complicated and the NFL does not disclose the exact math involved. Generally speaking, in free agency, the formula calculates a net loss for teams in terms of the amount of qualifying free agents. If a team loses more free agents than they sign, they can be awarded a compensatory pick for the loss.

Three factors are assigned a point value in the formula. The average annual value of a free agents new contract, the snap count of the free agent on their new team, and any post season honors such as All-Pro that the free agent earns. The goal is to never need to sign more players than will be lost in a given off-season to keep the formula going.

Does the formula lead to success?

Contrary to popular belief, the Ravens are not sitting on the throne of best team in the NFL with the compensatory pick formula. The crown belongs to the San Francisco 49ers with their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams next on the list in terms of compensatory picks awarded in the last five draft cycles.

The 49ers and Rams have different approaches. San Francisco has been raking in 3rd round compensatory picks for developing minority coaches and front office executives as part of the Rooney Rule. This largely explains how, despite horrific injuries hitting their roster, the 49ers still seem to be able to compete. Obviously, head coach Kyle Shanahan and his staff have been able to get the most out of their players, they also have more depth of talent than most teams due to their draft hauls.

The Los Angeles Rams have used their excess picks to maintain a robust flow of talent while frequently dealing top draft picks for proven players in lieu of signing free agents. The Rams in general have been more aggressive with their picks and will not shy away from signing a big free agent while maintaining their eye on the formula.

Total Compensatory picks for the 49ers, Rams, Ravens and Chargers — Thomas Martinez

It is hard to argue with the success that the 49ers, Rams and even the Ravens, with the exception of the 2025 season, have consistently maintained.

Will it work for the Chargers?

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert avoids a sack — David Butler II-Imagn Images

The best hope for the Chargers and the future of the compensatory pick obsession is a well-rounded and sustained level of success. Joe Hortiz and the current Chargers front office are still dealing with the rosters that were built before their arrival.

As it stands right now, the Chargers are in line for an additional third-round pick in 2027 for Odafe Oweh leaving in free agency. There is also a potential fourth-round pick for Zion Johnson on the table.

The Chargers are in the early stages of building and developing the system to create a consistent flow of compensatory picks. But, with obvious holes on the roster, the focus on the formula can appear counterproductive.

The goal is long-term success, but as the Ravens have stumbled in recent years, where the Rams are perennial contenders, Joe Hortiz may benefit from modernizing the Ravens' blueprint and showing a bit more aggression in acquiring players.

Hortiz has already shown a willingness to trade away future draft picks to help build out the roster. Will he continue to wheel and deal? Have the Chargers done enough to win in 2026? Is the Chargers front office playing it too safe and gambling on 2026 to preserve the future?

Joe Hortiz is building for long-term success, but Justin Herbert absolutely can not take the damage he did in 2025 again.