Breaking Down Austin Ekeler's Possible Free Agency

This is major.

At the end of this season, Los Angeles Chargers star running back Austin Ekeler is set to hit the free agency market. 

The former undrafted free agent out of Western Colorado has been an absolute gem for the Bolts, acting as the team's 3rd-down back his first couple of seasons prior to enjoying a full breakout in 2019. 

That season, "Ek" recorded 1,550 yards from scrimmage (on 92 receptions), with 11 total touchdowns. Primarily utilized as a receiver, Ekeler filled the void that was left by Danny Woodhead in the mid-2010s, and became the next great Chargers pass-catching running back. 

Alongside Melvin Gordon, the two were a formidable one-two punch, and after Gordon's departure in 2020, Ekeler was given full reign of the backfield. 

In 2021, he put up another 1,550 scrimmage-yard season, along with an absurd 20 touchdowns, pacing the NFL. He hasn't looked back since, putting up even more scrimmage yards last season, as well as 18 total touchdowns (pacing the league yet again). 

As all great things do unfortunately come to an end, understanding Ekeler's free agency prospects is of utmost importance ahead of this offseason. Will this be the last season we see him in a Chargers uniform? 

Let's break it down. 

Would Ekeler Leave?

Short answer: probably. Ek requested a trade back in March, indicative of his openness to finding another home. That said, his decision to request a deal was driven by contract disagreements, as the running back wanted an extension, and the team refused to give him one. 

Instead, they opted to restructure his deal, offering him $2M more of incentives, which caused him to rescind his trade request.

To that end, Ekeler definitely would leave if it becomes the best move financially. But, as we'll discuss, that's not really a guarantee.

Ekeler's Market:

The market for Ekeler is frankly, not great. It's hard to pinpoint a team that would throw much money at a 28-year old RB in this era of the NFL, where the position is already heavily devalued.

Taking a look at the Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor offseason drama, it's clear that teams are unwilling to sign their star running backs to long-term deals. 

Both Jacobs and Barkley got 1-year, roughly $10-11M contracts, and while Jonathan Taylor got a longer-term deal, he's much younger than Ekeler, Jacobs, and Barkley, and on a younger team (with a rookie quarterback) making that decision a lot more practical – both financially, and logistically.

Ekeler's offseason should be very similar to that of Jacobs and Barkley, as his market value will likely mirror theirs. However, with both of those running backs having gone through the 2023 offseason with no long-term extension (and being multiple years younger than Ekeler), things don't look too promising. 

At this point, it's probably safe to assume that the Chargers either franchise tag Ekeler (could lead to a holdout), or let him walk in free agency. This notion is conceptualized by Ekeler's current contract being $6M, and that having been signed in 2020, during his age-25 season. 

Given his uptick in production and Jonathan Taylor receiving a $14M contract annually, Ekeler will likely demand similar money. Receiving a similarly-sized deal to Taylor entering his age-29 season, and one that is over 2x the value of his contract back in 2020, however, seems highly unlikely. 

Thus, the type of money Ek would get is a major question in and of itself. Whether the Chargers can/want to pay him is another question too, and accounting for both factors, I'm of the belief that Ek will return to Los Angeles next season. 

As the market doesn't favor older running backs, the odds that Ekeler signs a long-term, lucrative deal with another team seem low. To that end, with the Chargers already having integrated him into their offense and needing him for the future, they'll likely offer the same/more as any other contract he'd receive from other teams. 

At that point, Ekeler would likely stay in Los Angeles, as he'd take a hometown discount/continue to be a part of a longer-term plan with quarterback Justin Herbert. It's impossible to truly predict what'll happen, but unless another team in the NFL deviates from what we've seen across the past couple of off-seasons with paying top-end running backs, Ekeler won't get any more than he'd get in LA, anywhere else in the league. 

Broadly, I predict a "welcome back" for Ekeler come the 2024 offseason, but I could be wrong.

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