Exploring the Kansas City Chiefs' Free Agency and Draft Options in 2021 (Part 1)
Looking ahead is always fun. As Chiefs fans, we have been looking ahead for many years. The future has a way of piquing our interest because of the chance that the future will bring us our desired outcome of championships and thrilling moments. Before this past season, most of us had to do this because we had no championships. My most memorable time looking ahead from a championship-less time was on January 4th, 2014. The Chiefs had just blown a 38-10 second-half lead in the playoffs to the Indianapolis Colts. To my surprise, 14-year-old me didn’t bawl my eyes out to the sight of the worst Chiefs loss of my lifetime. Instead, I, feeling dead inside, just spent hours looking at the Chiefs’ roster and looked at who the free agents were and what positions they could improve at for next season. These post-game moments are as memorable to me as anything from that disastrous loss.
Thankfully, Patrick Lavon Mahomes II has made these moments less necessary, as those dreams of a brighter future are now our present reality. We’re getting the championships, the thrilling moments and the greatest start to a quarterback’s career in NFL history. However, Chiefs fans shouldn’t just be satisfied with what we’ve been given. With Mahomes and with all we have been through, it is time for a dynasty. With the 2020 offseason mostly complete, let’s take a look at the 2021 offseason situation with the Chiefs’ positions of need.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver is not a need right now, but currently, the third-best wide receiver that the Chiefs have signed through 2021 is undrafted rookie Kalija Lipscomb. While the Chiefs can solve this by re-signing Sammy Watkins, that seems unlikely considering the cost and the need to lock up Mahomes and potentially Chris Jones. Demarcus Robinson, who would be a more likely third wide receiver option for the 2021 Chiefs, has been hit-or-miss when given his chances. It would make sense for the Chiefs to address wide receiver next offseason.
Draft Options: The entire draft class
Take the hype for the 2020 wide receiver draft class and make it even greater for the 2021 class. This is a star-studded cast and has numerous high-quality prospects that will go deep into day two. The Chiefs likely won’t get Ja’Marr Chase, Justyn Ross or Devonta Smith, but that is okay. Look at Alabama’s Jaylen Waddle, Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman, Purdue’s Rondale Moore, Louisville’s Tutu Atwell and Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace as just a few examples.
Since 2018, Waddle has an incredible 18.1 receiving yards per reception and 3.32 receiving yards per route run. Bateman was one of only three wide receivers in college football with 20+ yards per reception and 60+ catches, joining CeeDee Lamb and Chase. Moore did not have the 2019 he was hoping for due to injuries, but his 2018 was spectacular, with a Big Ten-leading 114 receptions, 1,258 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. Atwell had the most receiving yards per route in college football (50+ reception minimum) with 4.33 Y/RR. Wallace has been one of the most dangerous wide receivers in college football since 2018 with 2,384 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns. In the last two seasons, all four options have had a season where they were among the top ten Power Five receivers in PFF grade. Bring one of them to Kansas City and thrive.
Best Free Agent: Bears WR Allen Robinson
This option would be the safest, but costliest option out there. Robinson has been one of the best wide receivers for years, but keeps playing with bad quarterbacks. Would Robinson take a discount to play in the perfect situation? Would the Chiefs be able to pay Robinson an amount he would be happy with? It’d be fun to see and he is a great football player, but the cost may not be worth it.
Favorite Free Agent Option: Bengals WR John Ross
The player taken one pick before Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft, John Ross has not come close to his potential. As unfortunate as that is for the Bengals, it could be a blessing for the Chiefs as a cheap option to look at. Ross still has plenty of talent, has scored ten touchdowns in the last two seasons and finished 23rd in receiving yards per route run in 2019. Unfortunately, he has had the league’s worst drop rate in two consecutive seasons (25.0% in 2018, 20.0% in 2019). He will have to fix this to turn his career around.
Tight End
Travis Kelce isn’t going anywhere, but we can still add some more tight end talent behind him. Ricky Seals-Jones, Deon Yelder and Nick Keizer will be free agents next offseason, so they will need to address it in some way, whether it’s a returning player or an addition, or both.
Draft Options: Florida TE Kyle Pitts and Penn State TE Pat Freiermuth
Florida’s Kyle Pitts is the most interesting tight end prospect in years. His potential is sky-high, with PFF’s lead draft analyst, Mike Renner, saying he believes Pitts can join the Kelce and Kittle tier of tight end production. I can’t see a path for Pitts to be a Chief, either because he’d be a backup or because he could go before the Chiefs pick, but he is still a name to just get to know for you draft nerds. Pat Freiermuth, on the other hand, is a more likely name to look at for the Chiefs. Freiermuth is a better blocker than Pitts, should go later in the draft than Pitts and was really reliable when it comes to avoiding drops in 2019.
Best Free Agent: Buccaneers TE Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski refuses to play for any quarterback besides Tom Brady, but thankfully, we have a better quarterback than Brady. Sorry, Rob.
Favorite Free Agent Option: Rams TE Gerald Everett
Gerald Everett is not a secret, but the Rams have so much money tied up and they already have another solid tight end with Tyler Higbee. I think Everett will be there for the taking and would be a good additional receiving option in Kansas City.
Interior Offensive Lineman
This isn’t a position of value like some others in here, but it is a weak group that could use some help. Andrew Wylie and Austin Reiter will be free agents after this season, leaving the Chiefs with an IOL group of Martinas Rankin, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Nick Allegretti, the new UDFA signings and third-round pick Lucas Niang if they decide to play him there.
Draft Options: Oklahoma C Creed Humphrey and Ohio State G Wyatt Davis
By far the two best interior linemen in the class at the moment, Creed Humphrey and Wyatt Davis have allowed a combined one sack in more than 1,481 pass-blocking snaps. Expect both to go in round one of the 2021 Draft.
Best Free Agent: Patriots LG Joe Thuney
Joe Thuney was off to a slow start in his first two seasons in the NFL, allowing ten sacks in 1,639 pass-blocking snaps, but in the following two seasons, he has allowed just one sack in 1,497 pass-blocking snaps and becoming a Second-Team All-Pro in 2019. Thuney was a free agent this offseason but was franchise tagged by the Patriots, giving him $14.8 million in 2020.
Favorite Free Agent Option: Ravens C Matt Skura
The Ravens have a starting center controversy in progress with Matt Skura and Patrick Mekari. Skura was the starter in the first half of the 2019 season until he had a season-ending injury and Mekari took over. Both had solid PFF grading and allowed just 16 combined pressures, so both have a good chance of winning the battle. The Ravens could have let Skura go this offseason, but they ended up tendering him to let the center battle continue. However, Skura is still a free agent after this season while Mekari will remain under contract next season. It is possible that the Chiefs could get Skura for a reasonable choice this time next year.
So there’s a list of the offensive options I would like the Chiefs to take a look at in the 2021 offseason, particularly the draft options and my favorite free agent values. My defensive picks will come next week. Who’d I miss? Make sure to let me know and please do it in all-caps to really get your point across.
The referenced Pro Football Focus stats are a part of PFF Premium Stats, which comes with a PFF Elite subscription. Go to join.pff.com for more.
