Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Preview and Prediction
Football is finally here and the Kansas City Chiefs are defending champions for the first time in a half-century. Now, to kick off the season, the Chiefs will host the Houston Texans, the team they defeated 51-31 in the AFC Divisional Round last season after the Texans took a 24-0 lead.
In that game, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was on fire, having an incredible 30.1 Expected Points Added (EPA), his season-best, and an 89.9 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade. In contrast, Texans QB Deshaun Watson had a solid game, with 6.8 EPA and a 70.7 PFF grade, but he was nowhere near the world-beater that Mahomes was in that game.
Another key matchup in the game came between Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Texans rookie defensive back Lonnie Johnson Jr. Coming into the game, Johnson already had a rough year, having the worst PFF grade among all defensive backs (36.1). That made it all the more confusing when the Texans decided to put Johnson on the star tight end for much of the game. As a result, Kelce had 18.1 EPA and a 91.7 PFF grade (best among all players in the game), as he had 134 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns, all in the second quarter. Johnson allowed 56 of those 134 yards and two of those touchdowns, as Johnson had the lowest PFF grade of the season (27.9).
Coming into the 2020 season, the Texans have had some major changes to their team, some positive and some negative. They have added Brandin Cooks, David Johnson, Randall Cobb and P.J. Hall from free agency and trades, as well as Ross Blacklock from the draft. However, their losses are much greater, including DeAndre Hopkins, Carlos Hyde and D.J. Reader. Hopkins is among the best wide receivers in the NFL, ranking near the top in several metrics, while Reader was PFF's fourth-best run defender among interior defenders last season, trailing only Calais Campbell, Cam Heyward and Aaron Donald, who have a combined eight All-Pro selections. That's good company to be in.
As a result of those losses and more, the Texans are third-to-last in PFF's Improvement Index. That's not a good sign for the Texans' chances against the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Heading into the season, the Chiefs have great odds to repeat as Super Bowl champions, as PFF has them as the top team in their PFFELO Ratings and they are the betting favorite for Bovada at +600.
One key matchup to watch on Thursday is the potential matchup of Chiefs rookie linebacker Willie Gay Jr. against the Texans' running back duo of David Johnson and Duke Johnson, both of whom are proven receivers with a combined 4,963 receiving yards and 26 receiving touchdowns in the last five seasons. Gay, however, brings a breath of fresh air to the Chiefs' linebacker room after being amongst the very worst in the NFL in the previous two seasons. If Gay can stay on the field and is given a prominent role, I have little doubt that he will become the best linebacker on the team before long.
Speaking of rookies, we will also see the debut of the Chiefs' 32nd overall pick, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Edwards-Helaire is the latest of many incredibly talented running backs to put on the Chiefs uniforms in recent years, including Jamaal Charles, Priest Holmes and Kareem Hunt. Edwards-Helaire is PFF's most valuable SEC running back since they started tracking college football in 2014, ahead of names such as Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs and Alvin Kamara. While we can't be certain he will be as good as those three, it looks likely that he will be in that conversation for the top ten running backs within his first couple seasons.
Of course, the most impactful players will be the quarterbacks, their receivers and the defensive backs covering those receivers. Just looking at both rosters, it's quite clear that the Chiefs have the advantages here, despite some of the matchups being close. The Texans were tied for 27th in PFF coverage grade last season and enter this season without Tashaun Gipson, Johnathan Joseph and Gareon Conley (IR) and with rookie fourth-round pick John Reid and former Chief Eric Murray as their main additions to the group. Expect the Chiefs to fire on all cylinders against that secondary.
Final Prediction: Chiefs 41 Texans 21
