Analytics Recap: Kansas City Chiefs Defeat Cleveland Browns 33-29
The Kansas City Chiefs began their season with a wild comeback victory over the Cleveland Browns, winning their Week 1 matchup 33-29. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce put on an incredible showing throughout the game, with Hill and Kelce receiving 273 of Patrick Mahomes's 337 passing yards and all three of Mahomes's passing touchdowns. Mahomes added an extra rushing touchdown and put on an extraordinary showing all game long.
The Chiefs' next game will be in primetime on the road against the Baltimore Ravens for Sunday Night Football. The Ravens will be playing their second primetime game against the AFC West already this season, following a wild overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.
Here are the advanced numbers from the Chiefs' win over the Browns and the season so far from Ben Baldwin's rbsdm.com.
EPA = Expected Points Added, SR = Success Rate, 1st% = First Down Rate
Both offenses were fantastic in this game as the Browns finished the game with a 0.22 EPA per play and the Chiefs finished with a 0.32 EPA per play. Both were, as usual, carried in this metric by their passing attacks, though this was far more of the case for the Chiefs than for the Browns. The Browns finished with a 0.35 EPA per pass and 0.07 EPA per run, both of which are impressive, while the Chiefs finished with an astounding 0.51 EPA per pass and a lowly -0.16 EPA per run.
The gigantic difference in this game came from the late-down situations. While the Browns converted multiple critical fourth-down plays that they correctly went for, they still fell short on their late-down numbers thanks to a fumbled snap on a punt, a third-down penalty and sack near the end of the first half, and an incomplete pass with nearly five minutes left in the game on 3rd-and-7. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were beyond dominant in late downs, with over half an expected point added on each play on third or fourth down, whether it was a run or a pass.
The most effective offensive weapons of the game for the Browns were Jarvis Landry (8.0 EPA), Anthony Schwartz (5.6 EPA), Austin Hooper (3.0 EPA), Kareem Hunt (2.6 EPA) and David Njoku (1.3 EPA). Landry had 84 total yards over seven touches in the game, while Schwartz had 86 yards over just four touches. Nick Chubb, while he had 101 yards and two touchdowns in the game, did so over 17 touches and he also had a fumble near midfield, which took 5.4 expected points from his total, as the Browns went from having 2.8 expected points entering the play to having the Chiefs have 2.6 expected points following the play, causing him to go from 5.1 EPA to -0.3 EPA.
For the Chiefs, Hill and Kelce were dominant. Hill had a mind-boggling 12.9 EPA over 15 targets for 11 catches and one run, and Kelce had a 9.2 EPA over seven targets and six catches on eight plays to give him 1.15 EPA per play. The only other Chiefs weapon with at least three plays to have a positive EPA was Mecole Hardman, who had 1.7 EPA over four plays, predominantly from two catches, though one of which he ran short of the first down marker in addition to a free play in which he was targeted.
aDoT = Average Depth of Target, CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage), xQBR = ESPN's Quarterback Rating metric
This was an outstanding quarterback duel. Both quarterbacks really put on a show and greatly improved their team's chances of winning with their performances. Mahomes's EPA numbers and his CPOE are off the charts, with his EPA per play ranking in the 94th percentile, the total EPA ranking in the 97th percentile and the CPOE ranking in the 95th percentile since 2010.
Mayfield was great as well, with an 81st percentile EPA per play, 79th percentile aDoT and a 94th percentile CPOE, showing that he and Mahomes alike were completing passes to a much higher rate than they were expected to, thanks to great ball placement and skill. Mayfield continues to thrive, and you shouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs see him again in January.
KC_WP = Kansas City's Win Probability
Three of the four biggest plays of the game really came to benefit the Chiefs in a huge way, with the top play being Mahomes' 75-yard touchdown pass to Hill on the first play of the drive, adding 6.0 expected points and increasing their win probability from 18% to 36%. The second-biggest play was Nick Chubb's third-quarter fumble which gave the Chiefs some life on defense, giving the Browns -5.4 EPA and increasing the Chiefs' win probability from 32% to 49%. The previously mentioned punt fumble deep in Browns' territory was the third-biggest play, giving the Browns -3.3 EPA and increasing the Chiefs' win probability from 50% to 64%. It happens quite often, but when that many of the biggest plays go in the Chiefs' favor, you're almost certain to lose the game.
Looking at the win probability chart of this game, it really was a mostly Browns-controlled game, with the Browns having the win probability advantage for almost all of the middle two quarters, almost half of the fourth quarter and part of the first quarter, despite the Chiefs beginning the game with a 70.5% win probability. It really just goes to show how impossible it can be to beat the Chiefs. Even the next-best teams in the NFL lose their grip when they appear to have the Chiefs beat.
I can't move past this game without finally showing the numbers on some of the fourth-down decisions in this game, which were routinely positive for the Browns and, in one notable case, negative for the Chiefs. On the Browns' fourth-down tries, they converted on the first one en route to a touchdown to take an 8-0 lead and they scored a touchdown on the second one to take a 15-3 lead. The Chiefs' fourth-down scenario here was kicked, despite having a 60% success likelihood of converting the fourth down and having a large difference in win probability when comparing the two choices. This kick decreased the Chiefs' odds of winning the game by 2.8%, while the Browns' decisions to go for it increase their odds of winning by 17%, considering the fact that they converted each of them.
While some will contend that it is best to not go for it early, there is really no good reason for this argument. When you go for it early, you are able to gather an increased amount of information earlier in the game, giving you more ideas of how to address the rest of the game and giving you more time to put those ideas into good use. The Browns were clearly bought into this idea heading into this game and, with a little bit less unluckiness, would have come out with the victory.
Looking league-wide, there were some wild results in Week 1 when it came to the performances from the quarterbacks. Ten-plus-year starters Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, along with rookies Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence, had woeful performances when looking at EPA, while Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater and Russell Wilson put in great showings. On top of that, Week 1 was a great sign for the Rams and a bad sign for the Lions in regards to their Matthew Stafford/Jared Goff trade, as Stafford was also brilliant and Goff was poor.
Lastly, there's early-down passing rate, showing which teams are the most pass-heavy or run-heavy teams in the NFL. The Chiefs have dominated this stat in favor of the pass since Andy Reid took over as coach, having a 58.5% early-down passing rate since Reid's hire in 2013 (highest by nearly three percent) and a 64.6% early-down passing rate since Mahomes took over as quarterback (the highest by six percent!).
To start this season, the Chiefs are doing well, with a 65.7% early-down passing rate, but that only ranks sixth in the first week of the season, which is quite amazing. I also find it notable how six of the top eight won their games this week, with one of the two losers losing to another one of the top four while only staying in the game because of their quarterback's production. Pass to gain and strengthen the lead, run it out late when the clock is your friend. That is how you win football games.
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