KC Chiefs ‘Comfortable’ With Heavier Personnel in Season’s Final Weeks
With the Kansas City Chiefs falling short of expectations on offense this season, many have been working to figure out answers in time for the playoffs. While it's unclear whether minor tweaks and adjustments will pay off, one thing is being made pretty clear.
The involvement of the Chiefs' tight ends isn't going anywhere.
Of Kansas City's top five leaders in receiving yards and touchdowns entering Week 16, two tight ends appear on the list. The duo of Travis Kelce and Noah Gray remains a formidable one-two punch, with Blake Bell serving as depth and a quality blocker. That's been the case all season long, leading to the usage of 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends) at a 27% clip according to Jefe's Handiwork. The Chiefs' usage of 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) is 8% on the year.
Speaking to the media this week, head coach Andy Reid said his team is perfectly fine maintaining a fluid offensive approach while keeping tight ends on the field often.
“We’ve been doing quite a little bit of that throughout the year," Reid said. "Noah is a good football player, and so we’ve tried to utilize him more as we go and (he) still has a big dose of the special teams, he has done very well. Blake has also done a nice job when called on. We feel comfortable with the three tight end positions, too. We’ve done that though throughout. To have the flexibility to give them different personnel groups, still use the three wides (wide receivers) I think is good also, a good mixture helps.”
As expected, Kansas City's primary personnel grouping on offense is 11. That allows three wide receivers to get on the field at once and raises the chance of creating some sort of mismatch in passing scenarios. When the Chiefs go into 12 or 13 personnel, however, it can provide more blocking juice in the run game and also force opposing defenses to match via their heavy base looks. With Gray blossoming into a quality tight end No. 2 and Bell being a trusted tertiary player at the position, Kansas City has no problem fielding them. Kelce being a receiver in a tight end's body also helps.
The Chiefs' usage of heavier personnel hasn't fluctuated much before or after their bye week. Their 12 personnel packages rank among their most effective, averaging a yield of 0.1 EPA per play. In Sunday's win over the New England Patriots, 19 snaps in that formation set averaged a ridiculous .5 EPA per play. A Patrick Mahomes interception intended for Bell put a serious dent in the club's recent 13 personnel production but after the bye and before Sunday, Kansas City was averaging .26 EPA on 14 snaps of that variety.
With each added tight end, the Chiefs naturally become more and more likely to run the football. Because they can use players like Kelce and Gray in different ways, though, their passing attack is still something for defenses to monitor. Kansas City can provide chip help for tackles, apply someone as an insert blocker or use the athleticism of a Kelce or Gray and take advantage of a matchup against either a smaller or slower player. Bell is an off-speed pitch, even after a rough game in Week 15.
One consequence of heavy sets is that they limit the number of available wideouts on a given play. For a Chiefs team that has dealt with a multitude of mistakes from that position, that actually isn't inherently a bad thing. This late in the season, there likely won't be a drastic change in the numbers as far as groupings are concerned. With Rashee Rice and Justin Watson being the club's unquestioned top two wide receivers in the pecking order, the rotations are getting pared down. Whenever the Chiefs don't stick to the basics is when they can and should experiment with other options. The tight ends afford them the best of both worlds.
