The Case For the Kansas City Chiefs' Undefeated Season
The Kansas City Chiefs have what it takes to run the gauntlet and be the first NFL team since the 2007 New England Patriots to go through a regular season undefeated. Will this be an easy task? Of course not, but the Chiefs seem to be even more focused now than before their 2019 season that turned into a Super Bowl-winning effort. Before we get too deep into how the 2020 season could play out, let’s take a look at how this team got here.
Trading up and drafting quarterback Patrick Mahomes changed the franchise forever. Alex Smith was a solid quarterback who would get the team in position to win the division and make the playoffs every year, but could not get them to a Super Bowl. The hope was that drafting Mahomes would get them to the next level, and it certainly did.
After sitting behind Smith for the 2017 season, Mahomes broke out in 2018, his first season as the team’s quarterback, and threw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards. The Chiefs’ defense was ranked near the bottom of the league in every defensive metric that season. Mahomes and the offense kept them in every game that season, all the way to the AFC Championship Game, in which they lost a heartbreaker in overtime.
Something had to be done. Former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton and a few other aging members of the Chiefs’ defense were let go following that disappointing ending to an otherwise-excellent season. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was brought in to revamp the defense. He brought in several new position coaches that were well-respected names in the industry. Veteran players like Frank Clark and Tyrann Matthieu were brought in to change the defensive culture, both on the field and in the locker room.
The Chiefs have finished 12-4 in both seasons Mahomes has been the starter, but in 2019, the defense showed significant improvement and ended the season as a top-10 defense in the league. This is critical to the 2020 campaign that is about to begin.
When I sat down and looked at the 2020 schedule after its release, my initial reaction was that the Chiefs were likely to end the season 14-2, with losses at Baltimore and New Orleans. However, this was when the thought was there could be stadiums filled with fans across the country. As we know now, things revolving around COVID-19 have been rapidly changing throughout the past six months, and the Saints aren’t allowing fans in the stadium in week one. There are reports that the Saints will allow fans into the stadium for their second home game on September 27, but the number of fans allowed in is still unknown and it is not set in stone that fans will officially be allowed. The Baltimore Ravens initially announced they would allow 14,000 fans in their stadium but recently announced they will not allow fans in the stands to start the season.
Why does this matter for the Chiefs and their quest for a 16-0 regular season record? The only game the Chiefs were not favored to win, according to multiple gambling websites and their opening lines, was at Baltimore, against the Ravens. The Week 15 game against the Saints was a push, so there wasn’t a favorite when schedules were initially released. A major reason the Chiefs were not favored outright in those games is because those two games are played in the opposing team’s home stadium. Typically, fans play a major part in home-field advantage. That will not be the case in 2020. The Ravens are currently a 2.5 point favorite over the Chiefs for their Week 3 matchup. When a road team is a three-point underdog, that's usually seen as a game that would be an even matchup on a neutral field. Thus, without a true home-field advantage for the Ravens, the Chiefs may actually be a slight favorite.
The same logic can be put to use when the Chiefs travel to New Orleans in Week 15. While there could be fans in the stands by that point, it won’t be the fully sold-out Superdome that has given the Saints such a huge advantage the past decade-plus.
Looking at the rest of the schedule, on paper, the Chiefs should have the advantage across the board in all of their other 14 matchups. The Chiefs have been excellent against the AFC West since Andy Reid has taken over as head coach and even better since Patrick Mahomes has taken the reins at quarterback. They have a 13-0 record against their divisional opponents in each of Mahomes’ starts. Playing the AFC East (the Patriots, Bills, Jets, and Dolphins) doesn’t look daunting at this point. The rest of the NFC South, outside of the Saints, had a losing record last season. While the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Panthers have revamped their rosters, the Chiefs will be favored in all of those matchups. I don’t think the Houston Texans will pose a big threat to the defending Super Bowl champions on opening night, either.
And that’s it, that’s the schedule. 6-0 vs. the AFC West, 4-0 vs. the NFC South, 4-0 vs. the AFC East, and 2-0 vs. the 2019 AFC North and AFC South division champs. The Kansas City Chiefs can go 16-0 this season.
Let’s take it a step further. I’m also predicting the Chiefs will win Super Bowl LV. I believe the Chiefs will be the first NFL team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to go undefeated in the regular season and the playoffs; the first team to ever finish an NFL season 19-0.
Will it be an easy task? Absolutely not. Do the Chiefs have the best chance of any team in the NFL to run the table this season? They absolutely do. While home-field advantage is being neutralized, Kansas City can capitalize with the best coaching/quarterback combo in the league, a top-three offense and a top-10 defense to boot. The Chiefs will look to take advantage of being the best team on paper heading into each matchup throughout the 2020 season with a realistic goal of finishing the season undefeated.
