Worst-Case Scenario Picks for Chiefs in First Round of 2023 NFL Draft

The 2023 NFL Draft festivities are here, and the Kansas City Chiefs will soon be welcoming multiple new players into the organization.

Some picks are better than others, and Kansas City's standing at the end of the first round entering the draft leaves the door open for plenty of high-profile prospects to be taken in advance of their pick. The top two or even three tiers of draft-eligible players likely won't be on the board by the time selection No. 31 rolls around, which puts general manager Brett Veach in a difficult position.

With multiple positions of need for both now and later, as well as different pockets of depth on the draft board for each spot, there are some best-case scenarios that could come into play for Kansas City. The Chiefs could also run into some worst-case picks, too, and those options involve either a poor scheme fit, a middling draft prospect profile for a first-round pick, some other questions about value, or a combination of the aforementioned factors.

Let's go over cutoff spots at each position for round one and where Veach and company should think twice about attacking the 31st pick assuming no trade-up is made.

Quarterback, Linebacker, Specialist

Anyone

Kansas City's quarterback position is obviously taken care of, with Patrick Mahomes leading the way and Blaine Gabbert being recently signed to serve as his backup. A round-one signal-caller is completely out of the question for the Chiefs under almost any circumstance. The same is true for specialists such as a kicker, punter or long snapper. The 2023 linebacker class is relatively light at the top, and the team's current depth at that spot makes a pick at the position a candidate for a worst-case scenario on Day 1.

Running Back

Anyone not named Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs

Robinson isn't going to fall to the end of the first round and despite a rumbling earlier in the week that the Chiefs could be a good fit for Gibbs, that coming to fruition just doesn't seem to be likely at this juncture. Either of those picks would be far closer to luxury than the worst-case scenario, but Veach rolling the dice on any other running back prospect when the team has needs elsewhere would be a borderline catastrophic decision.

Wide Receiver

Josh Downs (North Carolina) and below

Behind the top four of (in no order) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison, the first-round pool of wideout depth is questionable. Prospects such as Cedric Tillman and Jonathan Mingo are subjective projections by many as those who can flirt with Day 1 territory, but anyone else ranked in the Downs tier or below on a consensus basis would be an iffy move at best. If a "big four" receiver is off the board and the Chiefs force a reach at 31, it wouldn't be a wise investment of resources.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and below

Similar to the wideout class, there's a clear tier of tight end options (Michael Mayer, Darnell Washington and potentially Luke Musgrave) that would be worthy of consideration at the end of the first round. Starting with Kincaid and working down, though, the question marks become more and more severe. Kincaid's is more health than talent, but those below him have the latter come into play far more. At a position as volatile as tight end, waiting until later on Day 2 or even Day 3 would probably be better than forcing a pick that may not offer good value on Day 1.

Offensive Tackle

Matthew Bergeron (Syracuse) and below

The Chiefs have a need for a reliable offensive tackle both now and later — right tackle, specifically — so the movement and progress of the tackle class will be worth watching throughout the middle and into end of the first round. If the top prospects end up falling off the board sooner than expected, it could force Veach's hand to at least consider a move that wouldn't pay immediate dividends. That tier starts at Bergeron, who is a completely fine Day 2 prospect, and goes on from there.

Interior Offensive Line

Anyone not named O'Cyrus Torrence

There aren't many position groups in the NFL that look more frightening on paper than the Chiefs' interior offensive line unit. The collective of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith is extremely strong and makes it to where a high-round pick on an interior lineman simply doesn't make much sense. With that said, Torrence is a phenomenal prospect who could serve as the league's best insurance policy now and potentially be a Thuney replacement down the road. Outside of him, though, an offensive line pick that isn't a tackle would be a worst-case scenario.

Interior Defensive Line

Anyone outside the consensus top-four

The quartet of Jalen Carter, Calijah Kancey, Bryan Bresee and Mazi Smith consists of four players who should be first-round picks. Bresee and Smith aren't locks to do so, but the former is a highly-probable Day 1 pick and the latter is a favorable one in terms of odds. Behind them on the board, no prospect is worth investing in on Day 1 for one reason or another. Waiting for the sweet spot of quality depth on Day 2 would be far wiser than a worst-case scenario of over-drafting a player who might not live up to the draft slot.

Defensive End

Will McDonald (Iowa State), Keion White (Georgia Tech), Isaiah Foskey (Notre Dame)

McDonald and White are similar in some regards, as both are older prospects who are on the fringe of being first-round picks. McDonald's poor fit with the Chiefs and White's limitations in versatility as a pass-rusher make them both potentially questionable selections for the Chiefs on Day 1. Foskey is somewhat like George Karlaftis a year ago in that he's a stiffer defensive end who might have a limited NFL ceiling. Because of that, he should be avoided until round two because he isn't quite as ideal of a prospect as Karlaftis was at pick No. 30 a year ago.

Secondary

DJ Turner (Michigan) and below at cornerback; Anyone not named Bryan Branch at safety

The Chiefs don't have a pressing need for a cornerback right now but if one of Jaylen Watson or Joshua Williams regresses in year two on the job, that situation could become more dire. If L'Jarius Sneed departs for free agency in 2024, the position's cupboard wouldn't be nearly as stacked as it is now. Just prior to Turner is the cutoff at corner. Branch is the only safety in this draft worthy of going in the first round, making anyone else a borderline worst-case scenario when considering the current depth at the position as well.