How Chiefs’ Spot in AFC West Shifted After Day 2 of Free Agency

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Tossing two big logs into the Chiefs’ smoker on Tuesday, Adam Schein had a pair of horrifying words for Chiefs Kingdom.

Last place.

andy rei — October 20, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid argues with the referee during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

“I think there's a shot here that the Chiefs finish in last place,” Schein said on Tuesday morning’s edition of Schein on Sports, on Mad Dog Sports Radio. “I'm just giving you the heads up so you can wrap your brain around it. I think there is a real shot.”

The Chiefs-won’t-contend-until-2027 crowd has a new spokesperson. But while Schein is a well-respected voice, respectfully, he and others like him, including Jason McCourty, are simply blind leading the blind.

crennel, fo — Dec 30 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel and Denver Broncos head coach John Fox greet each other following the game at Sports Authority Field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs 38-3. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A better prediction

Kansas City over the last 48 hours shelled out $59.4 million in guaranteed money to free agents; the Chiefs' $102.5 million in contracts over the first two days of free agency ranked 10th in the league. By comparison, the defending division champion Broncos have committed to only $11.35 million in guarantees and $52.635 million in contracts (26th in the league, according to Over the Cap).

Patrick Mahomes has stated his goal is to return for Week 1, and Jay Glazer reported the quarterback is ahead of schedule in his rehab from season-ending knee surgery. Plus, the Chiefs have two of the first 29 selections, three of the top 40 and four of the top 74 in next month’s draft.

So, a better prediction – especially if Kenneth Walker can stay healthy and keep defenses honest -- is that the Chiefs will claw their way into one of the four AFC wild-card slots, then don road-warrior caps to fight their way through the playoffs. Still, Schein sees the worst-case scenario in 2026 with a brighter future in 2027.

“The Kansas City Chiefs could finish in last place, and that's okay,” Schein said. “They have the championships, they have the Lombardis, they have the Super Bowl appearances. I think Brett Veach kind of told you what he thought about this roster when he didn't make that Breece Hall trade and give up a third-round pick last year.”

“Walker's great for stability and everything, but for Kansas City -- and they have the infrastructure to do it – it’s about being in position to be back in that hunt for Lombardis in 2027.”

kelc — Dec 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates a touchdown in front of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen (6) during the second half at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Recent history favors Chiefs

Past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but those who cover the Chiefs on a daily basis see clearly how their culture and standard differs from other teams – especially because of their past success.

And that past success includes staying out of last place for a baker’s dozen years.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, Kansas City’s 13-year streak without a last-place finish (2013-25, coinciding with Andy Reid and Travis Kelce’s tenures) is the NFL’s fourth-longest active stretch. Entering 2026, Pittsburgh hasn’t finished in the cellar since 1988, Green Bay since 2005 and Indianapolis since 2011.