Don’t Forget This Hidden Factor in Chiefs’ Downturn

Why Denver Broncos, New England Patriots have played NFL's easiest schedules.

Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton (80) catches the ball over Denver Broncos cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian (29) in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – For the first time in 11 years, since Patrick Mahomes was a freshman at Texas Tech, the Chiefs are looking at a postseason without an invitation.

“You’re just getting late in the season,” he said after Sunday’s 20-10 loss to Houston. “You're not gonna get these opportunities back, and that's a good football team. But we had chances, and we didn't execute at the right time to win it.”

Nov 2, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid speaks with the referees during the third quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

While no one in the Chiefs organization will publicly admit it, winning games has been harder in Kansas City than other cities. To support that, just look at one important indicator: In-season strength of schedule.

Since 2022, as the Chiefs were authoring three consecutive Super Bowl seasons, New England and Denver were fighting to stay out of the cellars in their respective divisions. The Patriots and Broncos combined for only one playoff berth, two third-place finishes and three last-place finishes.

And since Lamar Hunt helped the AFL merge with the NFL 55 years ago, the league has worked to favor teams like New England and Denver in 2025.

Dec 1, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart (6) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) greet each other after the game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Easy schedules

Teams like New England and Denver, with the right people in place (as those franchises seem to have this year), can take off thanks to something unique to the NFL: The scheduling matrix.

The Patriots (.349) and Broncos (.376) respectively have played the two easiest schedules in the league this season, based on 2025 opponent winning percentage. Each club also owns a share of the league’s best record, 11-2, although the Broncos enter the week with a slight edge due to better AFC record.

Nothing says 2025 NFL season like this:

Both teams on 10-game winning streaks (NE and DEN) are home underdogs this week to 9-win teams who have already lost multiple games as big favorites.

That has to be a first in NFL history. 10-game winning streak home dog.

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) December 10, 2025

Keep in mind, the Chiefs in their loss to Houston last week ended their string of nine consecutive AFC West titles. That means Kansas City this season is the ninth consecutive year the Chiefs have played a first-place schedule. And in 2025 so far, that equates to tied for the 10th-toughest slate in the league (.530), based on in-season opponent winning percentage.

Definition of a first-place schedule

When an NFL team finishes first in its division, the league’s predetermined schedule matrix pairs it with a first-place team from another division for three games the following year. For instance, the Chiefs this year drew teams that finished in first place last season from the NFC North (Detroit), AFC North (Baltimore) and AFC East (Buffalo).

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) makes a catch for a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner (27) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

And for those looking ahead thinking the Chiefs will have an “easier” schedule next season, assuming they finish in third place behind Denver and the L.A. Chargers, think again.

The Chiefs are scheduled to host the same-place finisher from the AFC South (right now, that would be either the Colts, Jaguars or Texans).

Kansas City is also scheduled to travel to same-place finishers in the AFC North (potentially Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or Baltimore) and the NFC South (potentially Tampa Bay, Carolina or Atlanta).

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