Here’s the Number That Will Define Chiefs-Broncos Sunday

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Denver leads the NFL in punts and penalties. Bo Nix has a better passer rating (100.5) in the Broncos’ two losses than he does in their eight wins (83.0).

But Sean Payton must have some magic dust he sprinkles over Nix’s helmet when the fourth quarter rolls around. Because his second-year quarterback has played his best when games matter most.

patrick mahome — Oct 27, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Broncos have trailed for 206 offensive plays during their 7-game win streak, the most by any team over any 7-0 stretch since at least 1991.

Per @OptaSTATS
— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) November 12, 2025

Fourth-quarter points margin

Twist the numbers all you want. The most important stat entering Sunday’s showdown (3:25 p.m. CT, CBS/KCTV, Channel 5, 96.5 The Fan) is fourth-quarter scoring. Denver leads the NFL with a plus-60 differential. The Chiefs in fourth quarters this year rank fifth at plus-27.

“They win. They find a way to win,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Wednesday. “And so, we've been through that, and the way that this league is right now, you gotta be able to do that. The parity in this thing is pretty crazy, especially in the AFC West.”

The Chiefs haven’t been able to do that. They’re an uncharacteristically 0-4 in one-score games. Denver is 6-2, and the Broncos’ fourth-quarter dominance is an obvious reason.

“Confident group,” Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie said Wednesday. “They play well together, and we know coming from this group, they're a proud group. So, we always love playing guys that care about a game, guys that do really good at the small things.”

Details are what the Chiefs have lacked, leading to frustrating inconsistencies. To a man, no one at team headquarters this week has demonstrated a lack of confidence. At the same time, Kansas City knows its mulligans are cashed in. The Chiefs know they need to finish assertively this week because that confidence is key to Denver’s ability to win.

“I think looking at it from our end,” McDuffie said, “it just shows that they play all four quarters. Until the time hits zero, they're gonna give it their all. So going into it, that you got to play, no matter what the score is, a good four quarters. So, we're looking forward to that.”

Affecting the quarterback

Sunday’s challenge is affecting Nix, who seems to thrive this season when playing from behind. When playing with a lead this season, Nix has an 88.8 passer rating with seven touchdown passes and four interceptions. When trailing, Nix’s rating jumps to 100.9 with 11 touchdown passes and only one interception.

The All-Wall Team Entering Week 11

Most pass block snaps without allowing a sack this season, per @NextGenStats

LT – Garett Bolles, Broncos (376)
LG – Quenton Nelson, Colts (356)
C – Luke Wattenberg, Broncos (376)
RG – Chris Lindstrom, Falcons (318)
RT – Zach Tom, Packers…
— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) November 13, 2025

Reid said he sees the second-year starter feeling more comfortable in Payton’s offense.

“Yeah, he's picking up what Sean's asking him to do,” Reid added, “and then executing and doing a good job with that. And that's a primary responsibility of the quarterback. You're going to be given a scheme, and you got to become a master of it and make everybody around you better. And he's done a nice job with that.”

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