Calculating Long Division: Why Sunday Is Must-Win for Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs face an division foe with a share of NFL's best record.

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos cheer in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Here’s the enormity of what the Chiefs face this week at Denver.

In 21 of the 23 seasons since the NFL realigned to eight divisions and created a four-team AFC West, division wins have decided the division.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball against Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

“It's a divisional game and they're always important,” Patrick Mahomes said Wednesday. “But with them having the lead and us needing to go out there and win to have a chance to win the division, I think guys understand that.”

Here’s specifically what those guys need to understand: Only seven times in those 23 seasons has a team won the AFC West with two-or-more division losses. And when the Chiefs (5-4) visit the Broncos (8-2) on Sunday (3:25 p.m. CT, CBS/KCTV, Channel 5, 96.5 The Fan), Kansas City will be risking a second loss in the division (the Chiefs suffered a Week 1 setback against the Chargers in Brazil).

“We knew coming back after the bye week,” All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie said Wednesday, “every game's gonna be like a playoff game. That's what we got to get ready for. So, we're not looking at stats or anything like that. Really, just focus on how we can beat the next team.”

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) catches a touchdown pass against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The next team is formidable

The next team owns a share of the NFL’s best record, entering Sunday riding a seven-game winning streak. The game is being called the biggest in Denver since Super Bowl 50 a decade ago.

Mathematically, Sunday is not a must-win situation. The Chiefs could lose and still pull out the division, although they’d lose control over their own destiny. However, in only two of those 23 seasons (2010 and 2011), division wins not a factor in who won the division.

December 19, 2010; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams defensive end James Hall (96) sacks Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (7) at the Edward Jones Dome. Kansas City defeated St. Louis 27-13. Mandatory Credit: Photo by Scott Rovak-Imagn Images | Scott Rovak-Imagn Images

The rare instances since 2002

With Todd Haley and Matt Cassel at the helm in 2010, the Chiefs actually lost four division games. Kansas City got lucky, able to overcome that 2-4 AFC West record to capture the division thanks to efforts from other teams that beat the Chargers, including a four-touchdown game from Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer.

The other AFC West anomaly was the next season, 2011. That’s when all four teams finished 3-3 in the division. The Chiefs fired Haley with three games left and interim head coach Romeo Crennel came an overtime field goal from winning all three of those final games and catapulting the Chiefs to the playoffs.

December 24, 2011; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs fullback Le'Ron McClain (44) runs for yardage as Oakland Raiders cornerback Lito Sheppard (21) attempts the tackle in the third quarter of the game against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders won 16-13. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

However, the Raiders’ Sebastian Janikowski kept Kansas City (7-9) home for the postseason. Denver (8-8) advanced that year, using a common-games tiebreaker to settle a three-way lock atop the division.

Another reason Sunday isn’t must-win for Kansas City is the group of five seasons when an AFC West champion finished 4-2 in the division (2002, 2015. 2018, 2020 and 2023). In four of those five seasons, the division winner advanced to the Super Bowl. And in all five instances, including 2018, the division winner played in the conference championship game.

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid (20) defends a reception by Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (10) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

But Kansas City knows the odds of that happening again are slim, and don’t tell the Chiefs Sunday isn’t a must-win situation.

“I feel like every game we play, we take it as a must-win,” Hollywood Brown said Wednesday. “So, it's no different this week. We know what's in front of us.”

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