Why the Chiefs Still Haven't Been Counted Out Yet

At what point can the Kansas City Chiefs be safely ruled out of contention for the 2025 NFL season? That's a tough question to answer. After all, this team was just in the Super Bowl last year, their fifth trip to the championship round since Patrick Mahomes took over at the helm.

The Chiefs have gone through three phases already this season. In the first three weeks, they struggled heavily, with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy missing downfield, leading to a 1-2 record. Then, they started to get hot when their top two wide receivers returned, going 4-1 in their next five games, with some dominant showings along the way. Now, in their last two outings, they've looked mortal and vulnerable, even with their offense at full strength.

After two straight losses against the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos, the Chiefs are just 5-5 on the season, currently outside of the AFC playoff picture. They're running out of time to flip the switch. With another loss or two this year, Kansas City might be mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.

Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Indianapolis Colts, Patrick Mahomes — Sep 25, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

There's still optimism for the Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't looked right in two games. Patrick Mahomes has had perhaps the worst two-week stretch of his NFL career in the losses to the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos. He was missing deep shots, couldn't escape the pass rush, and couldn't turn the corner to use his legs consistently.

That's led to the Chiefs averaging just 20 points over that span, which would rank just 26th in the NFL this season. Despite falling well short of their expectations in those games, Kansas City had a chance to win in both of them. They lost each by just one possession. Now, they look to right the ship against the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts, one of the fiercest contenders in the AFC so far this year.

Matt Nagy on Patrick Mahomes’ recent overthrows on deep balls:

“Don’t try to be perfect with it… sometimes just put it in the vicinity and let your guy go make a play.” pic.twitter.com/6HBIXSyj4Z
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) November 20, 2025

Even with their recent downturn, people aren't ready to sell their Chiefs' stock just yet. Four out of five editors on NFL.com's panel picked Kansas City over Indy, with Gennaro Filice predicting a 26-20 victory for KC:

"Having made five of the past six Super Bowls — collecting three Lombardi Trophies in the process — Kansas City finds itself in completely unfamiliar territory: outside of the current playoff field. Historical data tells us this game could be a crucial turning point, one way or the other.

In previous NFL campaigns going back to 1990, teams that started off at 5-6 only made the playoffs 15.4 percent of the time. On the other hand, teams that began the season at 6-5 ultimately hit the postseason at a 43.5 percent rate. So, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Co. need to get right right now. But Kansas City isn't the only team in this matchup with a growing concern."

"Yes, Indianapolis has been the NFL's most pleasant surprise in 2025, vaulting to the top of the AFC South behind the league's best offense, but everyone's been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Daniel Jones. And in his last two games, Jones has four interceptions, six fumbles (three lost) and 12 sacks taken. Is "Indiana Jones" turning back into "Danny Dimes," the mockable turnover machine who wore out his welcome in New York?

I'd say the Colts would be wise to put it all on Jonathan Taylor in this one, but the Chiefs have held three of their last four opponents to 60 rushing yards or fewer, yielding an NFL-low 3.3 yards per carry in that span. The chess match between Shane Steichen and Steve Spagnuolo takes center stage at Arrowhead, and I like the four-time Super Bowl champion to rally his defense in a must-win game."

Get all of the Chiefs' picks in each game moving forward when you sign up for our 100% FREE newsletter that comes straight to your email with the latest news. SIGN UP HERE NOW.

Chiefs Kingdom, OnSI welcomes you to the Internet’s No. 1 destination for in-depth info, always free; the best way to get it is to follow @KCChiefsOnSI, @ZakSGilbert and @Domminchella on X (Twitter). And join the conversation by visiting our Facebook page (here).