Betting on Anthony Richardson's Over/Under on Passing Yards

Pro Football Focus thinks gambling on the Over/Under for Anthony Richardson's passing yards is one of the best bets.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) took a look at the over/unders for passing yards around the league and figured Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts was one of the safer bets.

DraftKings and BetMGM both have the number for Richardson at 2,600 yards and Judah Fortgang likes the under for Richardson.

"The first premise of this bet is that Gardner Minshew will be the Colts' starter for at least the first few games of the season," wrote Fortgang. "After all, Richardson is just 21 years old and a very raw prospect with only one year of starting experience at the college level."

The reviews for Richardson have been overwhelmingly positive heading into training camp, so it's not out of the question that Richardson starts Week 1.

Even if Minshew starts the first few weeks, we're sure to see Richardson get some game time, but those may be limited run-based packages.

Fortgang is willing to hedge his bet on Richardson's passing yards based on his college production whether he's the Week 1 starter or not.

"Should Richardson get the nod early in the season, we still should not expect him to produce as a passer immediately," wrote Fortgang. "To begin with, quarterbacks have traditionally struggled in their rookies seasons."

No rookie quarterback threw for over 2,500 yards last season with Kenny Pickett coming the closest at 2,404. But 2022 was a bit of an aberration with only one quarterback being selected in the first two rounds (Pickett at No. 20 overall).

Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones and Davis Mills all broke 2,600 yards as rookies in 2021. 

"Richardson finished the 2022 college season ranked 224th among 274 qualifying quarterbacks in accuracy rate," wrote Fortgang. "Add in that the Colts figure to be a run-heavy team to begin with, and there will not be much volume for Richardson to clear even this low passing yards total."

2,600 yards across 17 games is just 153 yards per game. As bad as the offense was in 2022 with the revolving door at quarterback, the Colts still managed to throw for 202 yards per game.

Despite his off the charts athleticism, Richardson fell to the Colts at No. 4 overall because of his drawbacks as a passer coming out of college. 

Steichen is tasked with harnessing that talent and crafting an offense around arguably the most physically gifted quarterback to ever come into the NFL. 

Richardson threw for 2,549 yards in 12 games with the Florida Gators last year. 

If Richardson is named the starter for Week 1 and only needs 153 passing yards per game to hit the over on 2,600 yards, we wouldn't bet the under.