A Comprehensive Look At Chris Ballard's Free Agency History
The Indianapolis Colts are entering a pivotal offseason for the future of the franchise, as the team needs to find their quarterback of the future this year. This is also a vital offseason for General Manager Chris Ballard. He is entering year six with the team, boasting a career record of 45-52-1 over that span.
It is safe to say that this offseason is a potential make-or-break one for Ballard, as he doesn't have the benefit of time on his side anymore. To prepare Colts' fans for what could come this free agent season, let's take a look at Chris Ballard's career with the Colts and the moves that he has made prior to the draft in his tenure with the team.
These patterns may not be completely predicative towards what Ballard may do this offseason, but it is always vital to look at past data to form an opinion on the future. So, without further ado, let's take a look at Chris Ballard's history in free agency with the Colts.
Positions of Importance
The number one roster spot that Ballard has spent assets on in the offseason, by far and away, has been the quarterback position. This makes sense with the team scrambling in recent years to replace the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. In terms of overall contracts, the Colts gave Philip Rivers a one year, 25 million dollar deal on March 20th back in 2020.
On top of that massive free agent signing, the Colts have also given up prime draft picks for the position. The team traded a 2021 third round pick and a 2022 first round pick for Carson Wentz on March 16th back in 2021. The Colts also ate a 21.3 million dollar cap hit on that trade.
The Colts then sent out a 2022 third round pick for Matt Ryan on March 20th last year. The Colts will end up paying approximately 36 million dollars (across two years) for one year of play from the veteran quarterback. In total, the Colts will have sent out a first round pick, two third round picks, and 82.3 million dollars (across four seasons) for three years of play from those three quarterbacks. We can complain about the options selected at the position, but Ballard has certainly not ignored the QB position each offseason at least.
After quarterback, Chris Ballard has placed a heavy emphasis on the defensive line during free agency in his tenure. In the 60 transactions (only including free agent signings and trades) that Ballard has made in March/early April since 2017, 13 of those moves have been on the defensive line. The most notable moves being the trade in 2020 for DeForest Buckner and the free agent signing of Denico Autry back in 2018.
After defensive line, Chris Ballard has also made nine transactions on the offensive line in March/early April during his tenure. The list of players at the position is quite.. interesting overall. Some of the deals that Ballard has divvied out include small contracts with Brian Schwenke, J'Marcus Webb, Le'Raven Clark (re-signing), Sam Tevi, Julie'n Davenport, and Matt Pryor (re-signing).
Overall, here is the annual average value (AAV) spent at each spot (just counting both outside and in-house free agent signings):
QB: 25 million AAV (one signing)
RB: 2 million AAV (one signing)
WR: 6.4 million AAV (four signings)
TE: 4.4 million AAV (three signings)
OL: 1.08 million AAV (nine signings)
DL (including edge): 4.33 million AAV (11 signings)
LB: 1.82 million AAV (four signings)
CB: 4.1 million AAV (eight signings)
S: 1.67 million AAV (four signings)
Offseason Player Trades
As I mentioned above, Chris Ballard tends to make a player trade or two prior to the draft each free agency period. In five years with the Colts, Ballard has made six trades involving players prior to the draft. Here are the six trades and the picks involved:
2017:
Dwayne Allen and a 2017 sixth round pick traded away for a 2017 fourth round pick.
2020:
DeForest Buckner acquired for the Colts' 2020 first round pick.
2021:
Carson Wentz acquired for the Colts' 2022 first round pick and 2021 third round pick.
2022:
Yannick Ngakoue acquired for Rock Ya-Sin.
Carson Wentz traded away for a 2022 third round pick, a 2023 third round pick, and a second round pick swap in 2022.
Matt Ryan acquired for a 2022 third round pick.
A Late Signing Sprinkled In
Chris Ballard typically sits out during the early phase of free agency, but he tends to dip his toes back into the market right before the draft. This may just be speculation, but this may be the time when the Colts have completed their draft board and Ballard wants to add more veterans at a position that he feels is weaker in the draft.
In total, Ballard has signed 14 free agents in April (prior to the draft) in his five years with the Colts. Some notable names on that list include Johnathan Hankins (2017), Trey Burton (2020), T.J Carrie (2021), Rodney McLeod (2022), and Stephon Gilmore (2022).
Not Every Signing Makes the Final Roster
One last point to make in this piece is that not every signing that Chris Ballard will make this offseason is a lock for the final roster. Nearly 25% of Ballard's outside free agent signings have ended up missing the final roster in the same season that they were signed.
Some notable players that either didn't make the team or were placed on IR prior to the season include Sam Tevi (2021), Armani Watts (2022), Brandon Kemp (2022), Sean Davis (2021), and Roosevelt Nix (2020).
So if the Colts end up signing a player that you don't like during this free agent period, don't worry too much because they are far from a roster like by the end of the offseason.
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