ESPN Gets Real on Colts' Odds to Reach Postseason

After powering through a must-win contest against the New England Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive last Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts sit with a 6-7 record and an outside shot to do what it takes to make their first postseason appearance since 2020.

However, while the Colts currently have an outside shot in the AFC playoff picture to go dancing, a few outlets have remained skeptical of their chances to make up the ground needed to get into Wild Card weekend -- the latest being ESPN holding their reservations around Indianapolis.

With five weeks remaining in the regular season, ESPN and Bill Barnwell took a look at each AFC playoff contender and their odds of getting over the hump for the postseason. Indianapolis's outlook had a bit more doubt cast compared to the rest of the field, ending with only a 27.4% chance of making the playoffs via ESPN's Football Power Index.

Compared to the odds of who sits ahead of the Colts in the Baltimore Ravens (97.3%), Los Angeles Chargers (94.8), and Denver Broncos (74.8%), the opportunity for Indianapolis is a bit less optimistic. Yet, even through what could be a tough road to the playoffs, this team has begun to take advantage of some notable adjustments on the offensive side of the ball that could bode well for what lies ahead.

Barnwell threw out one glaring positive that could be a significant boost to the Colts' postseason hopes-- centering around the improved play and awareness of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson.

"One big positive so far? Richardson has stopped taking sacks," Barnwell said. "His 5.9% sack rate before the benching wasn't necessarily a huge problem, but the Jets, Lions and Patriots sacked him twice across 84 dropbacks, a 2.4% rate. That would be elite if he can keep it up, and it's a way for the Colts to avoid the obvious passing situations in which he is most vulnerable. If Indianapolis fans are still eyeing those Josh Allen comps, one of the biggest strides Allen made in his breakout 2020 campaign was cutting his sack rate nearly in half, where it has stayed for most of the ensuing five seasons. If a quarterback doesn't get sacked, his team goes for it on fourth downs, and he's a terror in short yardage, it's going to be extremely difficult to get the offense off of the field."

What happens next for the Colts? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Colts news delivered to your inbox daily!

Richardson has continued to make noticeable strides forward within his three weeks back in the starting lineup, as shown through the three-touchdown performance he showcased last Sunday against New England.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (all-white uniform) signals to the offensive line for a play change. — Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) signals during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Still, his accuracy and decision-making remain qualities that could utilize some improvements, but it's hard to dislike the progress already made. The Colts' second-year quarterback has made an impactful statement as a dual-threat quarterback, allowing this offense to get a much-needed injection of explosiveness and playmaking.

Yet, for the Colts' offensive unit, and especially the rushing attack, to churn at its peak performance, it'll have to stem some improvements from star running back Jonathan Taylor to flow as a dangerous weapon next to Richardson, who's looked a few steps slower from what we saw during his elite 2021 campaign.

"It's clear that coach Shane Steichen has leaned back into the designed run element of the offense to help get Richardson back on track and create more uncertainty for opposing defenses," Barnwell continued. "Leaving scrambles, sneaks, and kneel-downs out of the equation, Richardson averaged three designed runs per game before his benching. That's up to seven per game since his return... I'm hoping we see more consistency from the running game. Jonathan Taylor's success rate has generally been above average, ranging between 48.4% and 55.4% during his All-Pro campaign in 2021. This season, he's at 40.3%, which ranks 43rd out of 46 backs."

Indianapolis will have some work to do over the upcoming bye week and for the remaining quarter of the season. However, if the consistency gets ironed out on both sides of the ball, and Richardson continues to show signs of being the elite signal caller he was drafted to be, the Colts' schedule positions them to have an improved shot to run the table down the stretch.

"The Colts have a better postseason shot than you might think because they're in the middle of the easiest run of opponents of any team," Barnwell said. "After facing the Patriots before their bye, their schedule ranks 31st in the league moving forward, with only the Jaguars projected to face an easier slate. Over the final four games, they travel to face the Broncos, host the Titans, visit the Giants, then finish at home against the Jags in Week 18. The Denver game is the most difficult of the bunch, but as mentioned, it's also the most rewarding: If the Colts can beat their direct rivals for a wild-card spot next week, their playoff odds turn into a coin flip."

The Colts will get their run for a postseason spot back underway in Week 15 when they travel to the Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos in another must-win contest.

Want more Colts content? Check out the latest episode of the Horseshoe Huddle Podcast!

Follow Horseshoe Huddle on Facebook and X, and subscribe on YouTube for multiple Colts live-stream podcasts per week.