Inside AFC South: Top Contract-Year Players
Six games into the NFL regular season, several players in contract years are thinking beyond just wins and losses.
They want to get paid in 2021 and beyond. Which AFC South Division players are making their financial case the best so far?
The Sports Illustrated-writers for the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans offer their takes.
Texans wide receiver Will Fuller is off to a promising start.
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Houston Texans
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The Texans have plenty of players on both sides of the ball who are in contract years. Wide receiver Will Fuller V has emerged at the top of that list fairly quickly, and established himself as a player who, if he remains healthy, is a guy the Texans simply can’t afford to lose.
The DeAndre Hopkins trade to Arizona meant Deshaun Watson’s top weapon and most reliable playmaker was suddenly gone. Fuller, while obviously not Hopkins, has done his best to replace that production, and has been one of the top receivers in the NFL through the first few weeks.
In fact, Fuller has been a top-10 receiver with 28 receptions on 41 targets for 455 yards and four touchdowns with a catch percentage of 68.3-percent, 11.1 yards per target, with only one drop.
The one knock on Fuller to this point undoubtedly has been his ability to stay healthy. In his five-year career, Fuller has never been on the field for all 16 games, missing two his rookie season, six in his second year, nine in his third year, and five games last season. So far in 2020, Fuller hasn’t missed a game in six starts.
Fuller is currently set to take home $10.16 million with $9.4 million guaranteed, and if he proves that he can stay healthy and stays on pace to break all of his personal bests statistically, the Texans would be hard-pressed not to sign him to a new long-term deal.
Colts cornerback Xavier Rhodes has played well enough in six games to show he's worthy of a new contract for 2021.
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Indianapolis Colts
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The Colts locked up Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly with a $50-million extension to address the No. 1 priority among players entering contract years.
Most of his teammates looking to get paid after this season haven’t fared well. Safety Malik Hooker and running back Marlon Mack suffered season-ending Achilles tendon tears. Pro Bowl wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has yet to have one breakout game, which doesn’t bode well for negotiations.
Two players signed to one-year, prove-it deals have provided mixed results. Quarterback Philip Rivers has completed a high percentage of passes, but he’s also thrown some bad interceptions. He has seven TD passes and six interceptions, one returned for a touchdown.
But cornerback Xavier Rhodes has steadily improved after allowing a game-winning TD pass in the season opener at Jacksonville. Pro Football Focus lists Rhodes third among cornerbacks with the best passer rating allowed. One of his two interceptions was returned for a touchdown.
The Colts paid Rhodes $3 million with the hope that he could regain past form as a 2017 All-Pro shutdown cornerback. He’s being asked to read quarterbacks more than just receivers, and except for a couple of hiccups on big plays allowed, he’s been effective more often than not. The way he’s playing now, it won’t be a surprise if the Colts move him up the priority list of players looking to get new contracts in the offseason.
Jaguars offensive left tackle Cam Robinson has returned to his solid 2017 form to boost his stock for a new contract after this season.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
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Entering the 2020 season, once Leonard Fournette was released, there were just a few players entering contract seasons for the Jaguars. Receivers Keelan Cole and Chris Conley are notable names, while receiver Dede Westbrook and defensive end Dawuane Smoot are depth players who will likely play elsewhere (or on a small deal in the case of Smoot).
But through six weeks, none of these players have been Jacksonville's best contract-year player. Instead, that honor goes to offensive left tackle Cam Robinson, who is quickly flipping the narrative on his career after injuries plagued him for the last two seasons.
A former second-round selection, Robinson started 18 games, including the playoffs, as a rookie left tackle. He would suffer a season-ending ACL injury in Year 2, however, and Year 3 was mostly wasted as a result. But in 2020, Robinson has solidified the left tackle position for the Jaguars and has quickly become one of the team's top offensive players.
Robinson won't always make it look pretty, but he has been more than serviceable when protecting quarterback Gardner Minshew's blindside. He has to continue to work on his consistency, but he is worthy of a mid-level extension at this point in time. He is improving in pass protection, is a terrific run blocker, and is young enough to continue to improve. If the Jaguars don't sign him this offseason, some other team will.
Titans linebacker Jayon Brown is playing so well, he's going to earn a new lucrative contract. If not in Tennessee, then somewhere else.
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Tennessee Titans
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The Titans have a host of players including some notable names in contract years, which means Jayon Brown is not the first one who comes to mind. Don’t expect the inside linebacker to last long on the open market, however, assuming he gets there.
Brown was a fifth-round pick in 2017 largely due to his speed, and the expectation was that he would play in sub-packages as someone who could run with tight ends and running backs. He has become much more than that.
Five games into this season, he is the Titans’ leading tackler with 35 stops. That puts him on pace for his third straight season with more than 100. He also has forced one fumble, broken up two passes, and made three tackles for loss.
Over the past three seasons, coaches have tried to put Brown’s speed to use in a number of ways – and he has done well at all of them. In 2018, he showed a knack for the blitz and registered six sacks and 18 quarterback pressures. He was a part-time starter early that year and made 11 tackles in each of the first two games, and by the end of 2018 he was an every-down player.
Two other 2017 draft picks, wide receiver Corey Davis (first round) and tight end Jonnu Smith (third round), as well as guys like outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and veteran nose tackle DaQuan Jones, will garner plenty of attention as free agents. Brown, though, looks like a guy who can fit in with any team regardless of its scheme, and he is the right age to warrant a long-term, big-money deal. Expect him to cash in in a way none of the others do.
(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)
