Colts Offense Finished Bottom Tier According to Analytics

The 2023 season is far in the rearview mirror for the Indianapolis Colts. Despite losing Anthony Richardson after four games to a shoulder injury, Shane Steichen turned to veteran Gardner Minshew to take the offense's reins. Given the circumstances, Indianapolis faired well enough to notch a winning record of 9-8. However, while there were consistent moments from the passing attack and receiver Michael Pittman Jr., a new metric from Pro Football Focus shows Indy was one of the league's worst-performing through the air.

In Amelia Probst's article detailing all 32 league offenses from last year, she puts the teams in four different clusters, emphasizing the two most vital components of an offense (quarterback and receiver). Below is a brief explanation of her analytics:

"Clustering is a mathematical technique used to group similar observations. The most common form is the k-means clustering algorithm, which completes its iterative process when each observation is in the cluster that best represents it. In other words, there is no other cluster whose center (or mean of all the variables) is closer to that observation than the one it currently belongs to."
Amelia Probst | Pro Football Focus

Indianapolis falls to the end of the list for the quarterback-receiver analytics. The 2023 Colts offense is in company with the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and division-rival Tennessee Titans.

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For cluster four, here is Probst's description:

Cluster 4 contains the least successful teams from 2023. They earned the lowest average offensive grade of the four clusters (68.5), relied on the run more than other teams and generated the lowest average EPA per play figure (-0.12). They were also the least successful teams at fourth-down conversions (49.9%) on average.
Amelia Probst | Pro Football Focus

To put into perspective how bad the teams surrounding Indianapolis were in cluster four, the overall record (minus the Colts) is pathetic at 61-109 (35.9% win). Also, only the Steelers (10-7) and Colts finished with a winning record out of the 11 teams. This ranking shows the disparity between passer and receiver for each team. Indianapolis did what it could with Minshew instead of Richardson. Still, ultimately Pittman (109 catches) and Josh Downs (68 catches) made the passing game move with third place being a distant Alec Pierce (32 catches). The duo snagged 49.9% of the passes for 2023 (355 team catches) while the rest of the pass-catchers didn't fit the finite skills of Minshew.

When Pittman wasn't on the field, it showed how bad this Colts passing attack was, even with Steichen directing things. Look no further than when Indy was crushed by the Falcons on Christmas Eve by a score of 29-10. In this contest, the tight ends did what they could but Indy looked awful trying to throw and the Falcons feasted on Minshew.

2024 is a new chapter for the Colts now. With Richardson getting through shoulder rehab and getting a playmaker like Adonai Mitchell in his receiving corps, the offense looks ready to bounce back with their franchise signal caller leading the charge. With a motivated offensive line, several talented pass-catchers, and a star running back like Jonathan Taylor, perhaps the Colts can do better in Probst's breakdown next year with their passing performance.

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