Colts QB Anthony Richardson vs. the AFC South: Who Wins?

Now that the NFL draft is in the dust, teams are starting to see what their rookies look like in OTAs. For the Indianapolis Colts and Anthony Richardson, it’s a fresh start with a new coach and a bright future ahead. However, the rest of the AFC South is also young, hungry, and ready to take the division from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who claimed the division title in 2022.

With the AFC South as the subject, I will give my predictions on how Richardson would perform with the current rosters for all four teams; this will be for every home and away game, totaling six contests.

Now, it should be covered early that there’s always the chance of benchings, injuries, and unforeseen changes. For the sake of this article, I will throw a few scenarios into the entries for specific teams, given their roster situations.

To kick things off, let’s start with the reigning divisional champs.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Colts Away vs. Jaguars: Colts lose 17-31
Colts Home vs. Jaguars: Colts lose 20-23
Result: 0-2 vs. the Jaguars

The Jaguars are entering 2023 with the most talented offense in the AFC South, headed by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He’ll also get back running back Travis Etienne, tight end Evan Engram, and wide receivers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and the recently reinstated star Calvin Ridley.

While the Jaguars’ defense was middle-of-the-road last year, they still may be a bit much for Richardson right away. Their strongest area was against the run, which the Colts will lean on early with Richardson.

If there is a situation where Richardson is forced to throw in heavy volume, it could lead to mistakes and turnovers as he adjusts his sky-high skillsets to league pacing. This is even more so if the Jaguars sag the defense back and force shorter passes.

Giving the ball to Lawrence too many times is dangerous, and one extra is already one too many.

While I think Jacksonville has an exploitable pass defense, I still think Doug Pederson and Co. get both divisional nods against Indianapolis in year one of Richardson.

Next will be the now C.J. Stroud-led Houston Texans.

Houston Texans

Colts Away vs. Texans: Colts win 20-10
Colts Home vs. Texans: Colts win 30-23
Result: 2-0 vs. the Texans

Opposite the Jaguars’ result, the Colts should succeed more against the Houston Texans.

Even though Houston has arguably the most accurate passer out of the draft, he still has raw weapons at wide receiver in both Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson and still needs more help. They have the bruiser Dameon Pierce in the backfield and newly picked-up tight end Dalton Schultz. But that isn’t enough against a higher-end defensive group.

The simple reason Richardson has a chance to dominate is how weak Houston’s rushing defense is. They were easy to take advantage of in the running attack, benefiting Shane Steichen’s backfield and Richardson’s strengths.

This could open up big shots downfield and vertically, which Steichein himself has said he wants to do.

Also, Houston must run the ball while Stroud gets used to his receiving corps. This plays directly into the likes of defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, as well as ends like Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Samson Ebukam.

Given these situations, Richardson should snag two wins against Stroud.

Third and finally, the team that has had the Colts’ number for years.

Tennessee Titans

Colts Away vs. Titans: Colts win 24-21 (Will Levis at QB)
Colts Home vs. Titans: Colts lose 17-13 (Ryan Tannehill at QB)

The Colts used to command this series in the Andrew Luck era. However, this hasn’t been close to the same in recent seasons, with the Tennessee Titans dominating with the running prowess of Derrick Henry. For the initial Richardson season, I believe there will be a one-one split.

There must be context with the quarterback situation. For this piece, the scenario is that Ryan Tannehill (home) and Will Levis (away) start one each for the Titans.

For the home game, Tennessee will edge this one out, given Tannehill’s experience against Indianapolis and the running game Henry typically has against the Colts. Last season in the two meetings, he struck gold with 114 and 128 rushing yards, averaging 121 per contest.

For his home outing, Richardson will be dealing with a truly efficient rushing defense from Tennesee. As with the Jaguars, this could force more throws than he might be ready for, leading to turnovers. Jonathan Taylor will be crucial, but the Titans have elite stopping power against anyone’s backfield.

For the away game, I give the edge to the Colts due to Levis dealing with a less-than-stellar receiving corps and being a rookie signal-caller himself. The Indy defense can tee off on the rushing attack and continuously get Richardson the ball back.

Richardson gets one back against his future rival with the Colts’ defense standing tall.

This matchup will be challenging, with both teams being defensively strong and rush-oriented on offense, but Richardson will be tested. Titans coach Mike Vrabel has usually had a stout run defense and likely will again in 2023.

Outlook (Colts Finish 3-3 in the AFC South)

The Colts will have ups and down with Richardson at quarterback. This is especially true within the division. With this considered, I believe in a balanced 3-3 record for Richardson.

All four teams have young quarterbacks, and three of those have rookies. Steichen will need to have Richardson on point with how competitive this area of the NFL could become. Get ready for some exciting divisional games ahead for the young and explosive quarterback in Lucas Oil Stadium.

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