Colts Projected Win Total from PFF

How many wins for the Indianapolis Colts in Pro Football Focus's simulated season?

The Indianapolis Colts suffered through a 4-12-1 season in 2022 and underwent several big changes during the offseason. 

They hired Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to be their head coach after Jeff Saturday's stint as the interim. They also looked to get off the retread quarterback carousel by drafting Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 overall pick in April's draft.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) ran through their mountains of data to simulate the 2023 season and came up with estimated win totals for each team.

After their simulations, the Colts had 7.77 wins which would also translate to the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

PFF lists the Draft Kings' over/under for wins for each team, and they believe the Colts will significantly outperform the projected 6.5 wins from Draft Kings.

However, the Atlanta Falcons have had the No. 8 pick in the draft the last two seasons after back to back 7-10 seasons. Last year four teams tied with eight wins, and the highest pick was 14th in the draft. 

So there's a little discrepancy with the projected win totals for each team; they seem high considering the worst projected record is the Houston Texans with 5.93 wins followed by Arizona at 6.03.

No team in the last 10 years has had the worst record in the NFL with more than three wins, and the average win total for the worst record the last 10 years has been 2.0.

It's a pretty safe bet the team with the No. 1 overall pick in 2024's NFL Draft isn't going to triple that number of wins.

If the Colts outperform their 6.5 projected wins with eight, they likely won't have the No. 8 overall pick. However seven wins would fit that projection nicely and still be over the Draft Kings projected total.

The Colts are hoping Steichen and Richardson can take their solid core of talent and think about a playoff run to close the season rather than another top-10 draft pick.

PFF Projected Wins AFC South
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.09
2. Tennessee Titans: 8.56
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7.77
4. Houston Texans: 5.93