Inside AFC South: Most Pivotal Game?

As the NFL regular season nears, here’s what AFC South Division beat writers see as each team’s most important game in 2020.

The Houston Texans won’t have to wait long for a “do-or-die” matchup as they return on Thursday night to where last season ended in the playoffs, Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium.

Houston Texans

Mike Fisher/Texans Daily

Our attitude mirrors the NFL's apparent attitude.

Want to know if the Houston Texans have recovered emotionally from when last we saw them, losing a 21-0 playoff-game lead to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs? Want to know if that 51-31 loss was in any way fluky? Want to know if it was a building block toward Houston registering true title contention of its own?

Look no farther than Week 1. Thursday. Texans at Chiefs.

The NFL loves to open seasons with these sort of rematches, and the Texans talk as if they love it, too. A win doesn't erase what happened in the playoffs ... but it signals the start of another march there.

And a loss? No, it won't be crippling in the standings. But it might serve as a blow to the confidence the Texans harbor in regard to any belief that they are really, truly on the same level with the best in the AFC.

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Indianapolis Colts

Phillip B. Wilson/AllColts

If the Colts are going to be legitimate AFC playoff contenders, they must get off to a fast start. Six of the first seven opponents didn’t reach the playoffs in 2019. The lone exception is the Minnesota Vikings, who the Colts host in Week 2.

The Jaguars, Jets, Bears, Browns, Bengals, and Lions didn’t have a winning record last year — their combined record was 32-63-1 (.338).

That’s why Week 9 should be telling when the Baltimore Ravens and NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson visit Lucas Oil Stadium. The Ravens were a league-best 14-2 last season, and will be on a mission to atone for a demoralizing one-and-done playoff appearance — the AFC’s No. 1 seed was knocked off 28-12 at home by the wild-card Tennessee Titans.

The Colts have been presumably bolstered by the offseason additions of 17th-year quarterback Philip Rivers and All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. If head coach Frank Reich’s team pushes the Ravens to the limit in a competitive game, win or lose, that will legitimize the Colts as serious playoff contenders. The reassurance of knowing the team can compete against the best opponents should benefit the Colts as they tackle a tougher second-half schedule that includes Green Bay at home, two AFC South home-and-aways against the Titans and Texans, and a road game at Pittsburgh.

If the Ravens game turns out badly, no amount of positive spin and encouragement will be able to completely remove the doubt in players’ minds that the Colts have enough to make any kind of postseason run.

Seriously, the Colts’ schedule doesn’t appear to be too challenging. The fact that they have the Vikings, Ravens, and Packers at home is a plus. And their toughest road games are likely at Tennessee and Pittsburgh.

The Colts haven’t reached the playoffs in four of the past five years. They haven’t been AFC South champions since 2014. And they used to dominate this division, nine titles celebrated from 2003 to 2014 the most of any team.

If not now, then when?

Jacksonville Jaguars

John Shipley/JaguarReport

For the Jaguars, 2020 represents a long road ahead. The public, and perhaps the rest of the league, all see the franchise as one that isn't even attempting to field a winning team, but the Jaguars continue to insist that is their mission.

So with that in mind, it could be hard to peg exactly what is the team's most pivotal game. A few different ones can certainly be argued: Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts will decide whether the Jaguars get off to a fast start, and Week 2 vs. the Tennessee Titans will be their first road test, for example.

But for their most pivotal game, we are going to with Week 9 vs. the Texans, a divisional game in Jacksonville. The game, which will be Jacksonville's eighth, will be a pivotal middle-of-the-year game because it will give an idea of just where the Jaguars season is really going. By that point in the year, the Jaguars should be settled into the new offensive scheme and beginning to hit their stride — if such stride exists. If the Jaguars are near a .500 record when they play the Texans at the mid-point of the season, so it very well could be a must-win game that determines whether the Jaguars can gain positioning in the AFC South or if they will be at the bottom of the division once again.

The Jaguars were in a similar must-win game vs. the Texans in Week 9 in 2019. The Jaguars were 4-4 and within striking distance of first- or second-place in the division, but laid a complete egg in London in a 26-3 loss. The rest of their season would, of course, be a complete disaster, in large part due to a snowball result caused by the Texans loss. Jacksonville will need to work hard to avoid a repeat this year.

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Tennessee Titans

David Boclair/AllTitans

For a team that has Super Bowl aspirations after being one of last season’s final four, there are plenty of contests that look pivotal. The Titans are eager to host one or more playoff games, which makes success in the division paramount. The schedule also includes matchups with teams that made them look bad in 2019, Buffalo and Denver.

Without question, though, the one that looms particularly large is the Nov. 22 trip to Baltimore.

Beyond the fact that it is a return to the site of the Titans’ divisional playoff upset of last season’s best regular-season club, the game against the Ravens starts a stretch in which five of the final seven games are on the road. Those five include all three visits to Tennessee’s AFC South rivals and a prime-time clash with Green Bay.

If things go well through the first nine games and the Titans are at or near the top of their division, they will be hard-pressed to defend their position over that closing stretch. If they struggle early, it will be a challenge to make up ground with a steady stream of road games against quality opponents.

Either way, Tennessee will need a win at Baltimore to set the stage for what is to come, particularly since the preceding contest is a Thursday night home game against Indianapolis (Nov. 12). That means players will have a little extra time to recover prior to facing the Ravens and to steel themselves for the long and winding road to the finish.

The last time the Titans won a regular-season game at Baltimore was 2008, a 13-10 triumph which got them halfway to a 10-0 start. That was the last time they won the AFC South. If they’re going to finish on top this year, they’re probably going to need to do it again.

(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)

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