The Dolphins and all the Tua takes

For the better part of a year, we have been inundated with stories about Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and how the Dolphins need to select him in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft, or shouldn't take him, and everything in between.

So let's take a moment to analyze all the different angles of the Tua talk.

• Tua's health: Because of the restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, teams have not had the opportunity to bring in Tagovailoa to their facilities to give him a thorough physical examination and confirm he is 100 percent recovered from the hip injury he sustained last November.

Tua was examined in early April by an NFL-selected physician and his representatives said he passed the exam with flying colors.

Of course, one would not expect any different kind of comment from his camp.

This is a trend, by the way.

The big issue with Tua's health isn't so much what's happened in the past but what it means for the future.

Put simply, Tua's playing style and physical stature, combined with his injury history, does not inspire a ton of confidence that he'll have a long NFL career.

Sure, it's entirely possible that Tua could go 15 years without a major injury, but it just doesn't seem likely at this time.

And, yes, that makes him a gamble at No. 5 in the first round or anywhere in the top 10, really.

• Tua's talent: It has been suggested that if not for injury concerns, Tua just might be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and would rank as a better prospect than LSU Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow.

Uh, no.

What Burrow did last season was nothing short of ridiculous, unlike anything we've seen in college football before.

Burrow made sick throws on the run on a regular basis, which is not something we saw very often from Tua.

Let's be honest, Tagovailoa benefited greatly from playing behind one of the top offensive lines in college football (tackle Jedrick Wills will be a first-round pick this week) and the best wide receiver corps (Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III will be first-round picks this year, and DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle should be early picks in 2021).

Watch Tua's highlights from his college days and you'll see beautiful deep passes left and right. But you'll also see Tua throwing those passes with a clean pocket around him and with his receiver 3 or 4 yards behind the secondary.

Yes, Tua has a nice release and is accurate, but how many throws did he make under duress? How often did you see him zip the ball on an out route?

I've seen scouting reports knocking Burrow's arm as nothing special. Sorry, but in what universe is his arm strength lesser than that of Tua?

With draft week upon us, let's take a detailed look at Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. This is all based on extensive film study. Tua's injuries did not factor at all in my evaluation. pic.twitter.com/Y61M0jsa2c
— Greg Cosell (@gregcosell) April 20, 2020

Tagovailoa does have the intangibles to become a good NFL quarterback, no question, but it says here he's not the slam dunk many seem to think he is.

Former NFL quarterback and current NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms shares that opinion: “I don’t think he’s a Top 10 talent even without the injuries. With the injuries, I just look at it and go there’s no way, you’d have to be crazy … I would be actually floored, jaw-on-the-floor shocked, if Tua ended up being picked in the Top 10. I would think for sure, once he hits No. 10, business will be open for Tua.”

And then there's this from a longtime NFL executive in a column by Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald: "With the way Tua is built and the history of injuries, he’s not worth the risk. And I know people don’t want to hear this, but the talent around him at Alabama was so much better than most of the teams they played that you can’t overlook that. It made his (performance) better than it would have been otherwise. Herbert has the qualities you want — the big arm, athletic, can run. Not that Tua doesn’t, but he’s too big a risk.”

• The Tua endorsements: Former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer has worked with Tagovailoa to prepare him for the draft, and he threw out comparisons to Dan Marino and Aaron Rodgers, calling Tua the best quarterback with whom he has ever worked.

"Go back and watch the tape": Trent Dilfer calls Tua Tagovailoa "the single best prospect I have ever been around"https://t.co/P60iR3Gm7p pic.twitter.com/AuQHMYXTeB
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) April 17, 2020

As a former first-round pick who won a Super Bowl with the Baltimore Ravens, Dilfer should know what a good quarterback looks like.

But it's not like he's the most objective observer here, so I wouldn't necessarily take his word as gospel.

Then there were the Nick Saban comments in the Wall Street Journal, which were blown into a story about how teams would regret passing up on Tua.

“We failed Drew Brees on the physical. That’s why he’s not Miami’s quarterback,” Saban told the Wall Street Journal. “The sky’s the limit (with Tagovailoa). I don’t think any of the questions with Tua have to do with his ability to throw the ball and be effective.”

Saban is right on this count. Most of the questions regarding Tua are NOT about his ability to throw the ball and be effective.

But, again, what did Saban say here that we wouldn't expect from him.

• The Drew Brees argument: One of the reasons we've seen for the Dolphins drafting Tua is that they can't afford to pass him up because of what happened when they didn't sign Brees as a free agent in the spring of 2006 because of concerns about his injured shoulder.

The Brees situation happened 14 years ago; it might be time to let it go.

Yes, it's haunted the Dolphins because of what Brees has done in New Orleans and because Daunte Culpepper flamed out with the Dolphins.

But that's playing results.

It's easy to have 20/20 after the fact.

"The medical people made that decision. … That was a medical decision, not an organizational decision. We wanted to take Drew Brees. He’s the first guy we brought in. ... It's the same scenario with [Tua Tagovailoa.]" - Nick Saban looks back at Dolphins QB situation (@dpshow)
— Andrew Perloff (@andrewperloff) April 22, 2020

• The Wonderlic test: So there was a minor uproar when a story came out that Tua scored a 13 on the always-controversial Wonderlic, which measures quick-thinking logic and problem-solving.

The story later was amended to move Tagovailoa's score to 19 when he retook the test.

Either way, 13 or 19, who cares?

Clarification on Tua Tagovailoa’s Wonderlic Score: He took the test in spring of 2018 at Alabama, and got a 13. He took it again at the combine and scored a 19. The average score is a 20. I’m told, NFL teams have this information and there are no concerns.
— Laura Rutledge (@LauraRutledge) April 17, 2020

Do we have to bring up the fact that Dan Marino didn't register a high score on the Wonderlic? End of story.

• The bottom line: It's actually very simple. The Dolphins no doubt have evaluated Tagovailoa from all angles and they should have a good conviction on him one way or the other.

If the Dolphins believe Tagovailoa will become a quality starter in the NFL, they then will have to decide whether he's worth the risk.

If there's any doubt strictly from a durability standpoint, the Dolphins absolutely should go for it because they do need to land that franchise quarterback.

One way or another, we'll find out Thursday night and the speculation at long last will be over.