Inside the Numbers of the Running Game

Using the most pertinent stats to put into perspective the Miami Dolphins' struggles in the running game during the 2024 season:

Additional reading:

-- Analyzing the short-yardage shortcomings
-- The biggest Dolphins takeaway from Wild Card Weekend
-- The five biggest reasons the Dolphins didn't make the playoffs

THE MAJOR DROP-OFF

The most significant stat for any assessment of the major step back the running game took in 2024 has to be the yards per attempt average.

The Dolphins led the entire NFL in that category at 5.06 yards in 2023 before tumbling to 28th at 4.01 this season, with only the Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and Las Vegas Raiders doing worse.

The biggest individual fall in that category went to De'Von Achane, but that was mostly because his insane 7.8 average of 2023 was not something had any right to believe could be duplicated or even approached. As it was, Achane went down to 4.5 yards per carry, which still was good enough for 21st in the NFL among qualifying leaders.

RAHEEM MOSTERT'S REGRESSION

It wasn't just Achane who wasn't able to duplicate a memorable 2023 season.

Between injuries and two costly fumbles that dropped him in the running back rotation, veteran Raheem Mostert had a monumental fall in 2024.

He went from scoring 18 rushing touchdowns and averaging 4.8 yards per carry for his 1,012 rushing yards to two rushing TDs, a 3.3 average and 278 rushing yards.

This came after the Dolphins signed him to a contract extension that may end up being just about giving up more money up front because he does look like a very possible, if not likely, salary-cap casualty in the offseason.

THE RUNNING GAME ANALYTICS

So which unit was most to blame for the running game issues in 2024, the running backs or the offensive line?

Here's what some of the Pro Football Reference metrics say:

In terms of rushing yards before contact, which evaluates the blocking up front, the Dolphins were tied for 22nd in the NFL at 2.3 yards per attempt, a full yard behind the top team in that category, the Baltimore Ravens. The Las Vegas Raiders were last at 1.9 yards per attempt.

When it comes to rushing attempts per broken tackle, where the lower the number the better, the Dolphins came in next-to-last in the entire league, ahead only of the AFC No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins averaged a broken tackle for every 34.5 rushing attempt, compared to 37.5 for the Chiefs. The best team in the NFL in that category was Green Bay at 9.1.

Individually, Mostert was dead last among all NFL ball carriers with at least 50 carries in terms of breaking tackles, credited with only one on 85 attempts. The NFL leader in that category was Tyjae Spears of the Tennessee Titans at 6.5 attempts per broken tackle. Achane was 54th in the NFL with a rate of one broken tackle for every 29 attempts.

The league average was 16.1 attemps for every broken tackle, meaning the Dolphins running backs fell way short in that category.

THE AUSTIN JACKSON FACTOR

When it comes to injuries impacting the running game, there's something to be said for the impact of the knee injury that landed Austin Jackson on IR aftter the Week 9 game against the Buffalo Bills.

The numbers really are startling:

Games 1-8 with Jackson at right tackle: 133.9 rushing yards per game, 4.4 average per attempt, five games with at least 130 rushing yards.

Game 9-17 without Jackson at right tackle: 77.1 rushing yards per game, 3.4 average per attempt, two games with at least 130 rushing yards.

To be fair, six of the Dolphins' final nine games were played against the teams that finished in the top half in rushing yards allowed per carry, compared to only two in the first eight games.

It's still a startling difference.

But countering the idea that the running game dropping off in the second half of the season was all about Jackson getting injured is the fact the Dolphins' highest per-carry average came on runs around left end at 4.84 yards per attempt, followed by plays behind right tackle at 4.5.

And there's also this important factor: the knee issues that bothered left tackle Terron Armstead started at the same time Jackson was going on IR.

So this was a double whammy, the Pro Bowl left tackle hampered by a nagging injury that all but eliminated his practice time and the productive right tackle being knocked out of the lineup.

THE FREQUENCE AND THE WON-LOSS EFFECT

For those keeping track of the correlation between a lot of rushing attempts and winning, we offer this:

The Dolphins were 2-4 in games where they had 30 or more rushing attempts.

The Dolphins were 1-3 in games where they had 20 or fewer rushing attempts.

The Dolphins were 3-5 when they outrushed their opponents.

The Dolphins were 5-4 when they were outrushed.