The 53-Man Roster Analysis ... And Projections Revisited

It's the day after the Miami Dolphins and the rest of the NFL teams got down to the 53-player roster limit via a blizzard of transactions, so it's a good time to reflect on the initial roster and how we got here.

It's also a chance to look back and see how well we did in our roster projections, which we're happy to do considering we nailed 50 of the 53 players on the initial 53-man roster.

Right off the bat, let's point out the three players who made the initial 53-man roster who we didn't have were tight end Cethan Carter, offensive lineman Greg Mancz and cornerback Trill Williams. There's a good excuse for Mancz, considering he was acquired in a trade Saturday, which was AFTER the roster projection was published.

The three players we did have making the 53 who did not were running back Gerrid Doaks, center Matt Skura and linebacker Benardrick McKinney, maybe as big a surprise cut as there was in the entire NFL. And, as for Skura, he just might have lost his roster spot when the Dolphins picked up Mancz.

Here's a quick position-by-position look at the initial Dolphins 53-man roster, along with the moves to get there and an analysis:

QUARTERBACK

On the 53: Tua Tagovailoa, Jacoby Brissett

Final moves: Waived Reid Sinnett

All Dolphins projection: Tagovailoa, Brissett (2-for-2)

Analysis: That one wasn't terribly difficult, though Sinnett gave everyone reason to pause after his brilliant outing in the preseason finale at Cincinnati.

RUNNING BACK

On the 53: Salvon Ahmed, Malcolm Brown, Myles Gaskin

Final moves: Waived Gerrid Doaks, Patrick Laird and Carl Tucker

All Dolphins projection: Ahmed, Brown, Gaskin, Doaks (3-for-4)

Analysis: From this vantage point, the thought was that the Dolphins would keep four running backs and the final choice came down to Doaks' upside versus Laird's versatility and dependability. It's probably not likely the Dolphins will go with only three at this position, though that was the route they chose for the initial 53.

WIDE RECEIVER

On the 53: Albert Wilson, DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins

Final moves: Waived Malcolm Perry, Kirk Merritt, Kai Locksley and Khalil McClain

All Dolphins projection: Wilson, Parker, Waddle, Williams, Grant, Hollins (6-for-6)

Analysis: We ended up nailing it (also add Will Fuller, who will be on the 53-man roster after Week 1), but Merritt's impressive work throughout camp and the preseason had to give the Dolphins reason to think long and hard before exposing him to waivers.

TIGHT END

On the 53: Adam Shaheen, Durham Smythe, Cethan Carter, Hunter Long, Mike Gesicki

Final moves: Waived Chris Myarick

All Dolphins projection: Shaheen, Smythe, Long, Gesicki (4-for-5)

Analysis: Let's establish right away that the thought was that Carter would end up going on IR because of the knee injury he sustained in the preseason opener, not that he'd be released, because he was very good in camp before his injury. This position also might be fluid because five tight ends is a pretty large number to carry.

OFFENSIVE LINE

On the 53: Michael Deiter, Robert Jones, Solomon Kindley, Greg Mancz, Robert Hunt, Austin Jackson, Liam Eichenberg, Greg Little, Jesse Davis

Final moves: Released Adam Pankey, Matt Skura and Cameron Tom; waived Durval Queiroz Neto

All Dolphins projection: Deiter, Jones, Kindley, Hunt, Jackson, Eichenberg, Little, Davis, Skura (8-for-9)

Analysis: The thinking behind predicting Jones to make the 53 as a rookie free agent was the bigger need at center/guard in terms of depth than at tackle, combined with the promise that Jones showed in camp. As explained earlier, the trade of Mancz changed the outlook for Skura the second it went down.

DEFENSIVE LINE

On the 53: Adam Butler, John Jenkins, Emmanuel Ogbah, Zach Sieler, Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis

Final moves: Waived Benito Jones, Jonathan Ledbetter, Tyshun Render and Jason Strowbridge

All Dolphins projection: Butler, Jenkins, Ogbah, Sieler, Wilkins, Davis (6-for-6)

Analysis: This actually was a pretty easy one because the Dolphins had six established veterans and four unproven young players, and the only way the outcome would have been different would have been through a breakout performance by one of the young guys. And that just did not happen.

LINEBACKER

On the 53: Jaelan Phillips, Andrew Van Ginkel, Duke Riley, Sam Eguavoen, Elandon Roberts, Jerome Baker, Brennan Scarlett

Final moves: Released Benardrick McKinney and Josh Harvey Clemons; waived Shaquem Griffin, Kylan Johnson and Calvin Munson

All Dolphins projection: Phillips, Van Ginkel, Riley, Eguavoen, McKinney, Roberts, Baker, Scarlett (7-for-8)

Analysis: The McKinney release is pretty shocking in the final analysis, even though there were some signs that maybe should have prepared us for it. It's also worth noting that seven linebackers on a team with this much 3-4 usage is a bit unusual.

SECONDARY

On the 53: Noah Igbinoghene, Eric Rowe, Jevon Holland, Byron Jones, Xavien Howard, Justin Coleman, Brandon Jones, Jason McCourty, Jamal Perry, Nik Needham, Clayton Fejedelem, Trill Williams

Final moves: Released Cre'Von LeBlanc; waived Javaris Davis, Tino Ellis and Nate Holley

All Dolphins projection: Igbinoghene, Rowe, Holland, Byron Jones, Howard, Coleman, Brandon Jones, McCourty, Perry, Needham, Fejedelem (11-for-12)

Analysis: The thought was that Williams was going to be awfully difficult to cut because he's shown such intriguing potential, and in the end the Dolphins decided they would just go with the unusually high total of 12 defensive backs rather than cut Williams or somebody else. This is a position that bears watching for future moves, though.

SPECIALISTS

On the 53: Michael Palardy, Jason Sanders, Blake Ferguson

Final moves: None

All Dolphins projection: Palardy, Sanders, Ferguson (3-for-3)

Analysis: Nailed it! And without much effort, either!