Revisiting the Five Biggest Reasons for Optimism for Dolphins Heading into 2023 Regular Season

The Miami Dolphins have reached the halfway point of the 2023 season (sorta) and they overall have to be pretty happy with their 6-3 record and first-place standing in the AFC East.

Before the season began, we listed the five biggest reasons for optimism that the Dolphins could duplicate their playoff season of 2022, so it's a good time to revisit those to see how they played out in the first nine games.

1. TUA TAKES YET ANOTHER STEP

Before the season: As with most often the case in the NFL, it starts with the quarterback and this is where the Dolphins have to feel good based on the big step they saw Tua Tagovailoa take in his third season. The key now is for Tua to finish what he started in 2022 when his play tailed off at the end of the season, though he still ended up leading the NFL in passer rating. No matter what else happens, if Tua builds on what he did last season and takes another step forward, it just might be that nothing else could keep the Dolphins from making the playoffs. This, of course, also entails Tua staying healthy, but as far as that is concerned, he did everything he could in the offseason to help his chances and one also could suggest he's due for some good luck in the health department.

Through nine games: As he did in 2022, Tua currently leads the NFL in passer rating, so in that sense he's just continued the good work he started last season. But Tua has improved in a couple of key areas, namely throwing downfield more often than he did last season and giving up on a play when it appears doomed instead of putting himself in harm's way, which is what resulted in the injuries he sustained in the first half of last season against Buffalo and Cincinnati.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: The end of the game against Kansas City notwithstanding — disappointing but a bit fluky — Tua pretty much is in the same spot he was at the bye last year. The challenge, of course, will be to finish the season and we mean that in two significant ways — literally, as in staying in the lineup for every game, and figuratively, in terms of coming up with some big performances down the stretch, something that's missing from his resume.

2. FANGIO FINDS A WAY

Before the season: The Dolphins made some noteworthy additions on defense in the offseason, but none can have the impact of new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Look, there was a reason many teams wanted to hire him after he took a year away from the NFL following his head-coaching stint with the Denver Broncos, and that reason is that he's one of the most respected defensive minds in the NFL. Fangio's scheme, which is focused on deception and preventing the big play, could help take a talented group of defensive players into a high league ranking and prove the difference in some games.

Through nine games: It took a lot longer than some had anticipated or hoped, but we've seen the Dolphins defense make steady improvement over the course of the first nine games to the point where this is now a very good unit with the arrow clearly pointed up. The Dolphins may have lost their showdown against Kansas City last weekend, but the defense did its part in holding the Chiefs to 267 total yards and two touchdowns. And let's not forget that the Dolphins played their first seven games without cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who's arguably the most talented player on defense, and with Jaelan Phillips slowed by back and oblique injuries for the first month.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: It's not a stretch to suggest that Dolphins fans should feel better about the defense than the offense heading into the second half of the season. For one thing, every key player is back in the lineup and the arrow just keeps pointing up. The Dolphins now stand 12th in the NFL in total defense, so the goal of finishing in the top 10 seems highly attainable, and it says here the Dolphins actually could make a push for the top 5.

3. OFFENSIVE LINE HOLDS THE LINE

Before the season: The Dolphins offensive line has been the target of a lot of criticism in recent years — some of it justified, some of it over the top — but it's coming off a preseason showing where the run blocking in the preseason paved the way for a lot of success for players like Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks. The first priority will be protecting Tua, however, to give him the time to connect with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and the hope here is that tackle Terron Armstead can play every game, if not most of them, because of the difference he makes up front. Even then, there's reason to believe that 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson will provide solid work at right tackle.

Through nine games: This maybe has been the best surprise of the first half of the season because the offensive line simply has been very good, and that's despite injuries that have sidelined every single starter except for Austin Jackson. And speaking of Jackson, we were right in our belief that Jackson would turn in solid work at right tackle because that's just what he's done. The Dolphins have been able to withstand injuries to Armstead and center Connor Williams to get really good work up front in pretty much every game, with few exceptions.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: With the return of Armstead and Williams in the lineup, there's reason to think/hope that unit can play his best football in the second half of 2023. The injury to left guard Isaiah Wynn was disappointing, but the Dolphins still have enough pieces in place for the line to function well enough to help the skill position players work their magic. The key, as with everything else, will be to step up against higher-level competition down the stretch.

4. RUNNING GAME REVIVAL

Before the season: One of the big stories of the offseason was Mike McDaniel stating — to his players and to the media — that he was going to make the running game more of a priority in his second season as head coach. Maybe the Dolphins' flirtation with high-profile running backs in recent weeks was an indication of that, but even without Dalvin Cook or Jonathan Taylor, the Dolphins can get things done in the running game with their current backs — Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., Ahmed and Brooks — if they stick with it a bit more than they did in 2022. And remember that McDaniel's reputation before he arrived in Miami was as a run game guru. If the Dolphins achieve better balance on offense, this could be a tough group to stop.

Through nine games: This is where we bow our head in shame for not including De'Von Achane among the group of "current backs" because it was the rookie third-round pick who provided the electricity for the running game after he got into the lineup. But even before and after his dazzling three-game display, the running game has been humming, thanks in large part to the work or Mostert and the offensive line, with a big help from the scheme and speed that's allowed the wide zone to thrive more often than not.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: The return of Achane should provide a spark for the running game, even though it's unrealistic to expect the same results as the first month of the season. What the Dolphins need is for the running game to produce enough to loosen things up for the passing game and to be able to make a difference against elite competition.

5. CHUBB MAKES HIS CHARGE

Before the season: Of all the talented defensive players that Fangio inherited, maybe Chubb is the most intriguing one and the one who could make the biggest difference in 2023. The former Denver Broncos first-round pick arrived at the trade deadline last year and, for various reasons like minor injuries and an adjustment period, didn't make the impact that had been hoped. After an impressive training camp, there's reason to hope and believe that Chubb could be a difference-maker from the start of the regular season.

Through nine games: OK, so maybe Chubb wasn't a force from the very start of the regular season (though he was impactful in Week 2 at New England), but he's been dominant in recent weeks, entering the bye on a four-game sack streak (five overall) and with three of his four forced fumbles. Even when he's not sacking the quarterback, Chubb has been making his presence felt in the offensive backfield, looking every bit the player the Dolphins thought they were getting in that November 2022 trade.

The outlook for the rest of 2023: Barring an injury, there's no reason to think Chubb won't continue to produce because he's done it against good and not-so-good opponents. Chubb made the Pro Bowl on reputation more than anything last season, but he's now headed for yet another selection but this time on performance.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Dolphins news and analysis year-round. Check out our daily podcast (All Dolphins Podcast) on YouTube and also available wherever you get your audio podcasts. Also, you can follow me on Twitter at @PoupartNFL, and that's where you can ask questions for the regular All Dolphins mailbags. You also can ask questions via email at fnalldolphins@yahoo.com.