The Good News and Bad News for the Dolphins' Playoff Hopes
The good news for the Miami Dolphins heading into Week 17 is that they will make the playoffs if any of four games go their way.
But as the week ended and Sunday arrived, it sure looked as though their most realistic path involved them taking care of it themselves.
After the Dolphins' wild 26-25 victory at Las Vegas last Saturday night, they remained in control of their playoff fate, as they will clinch that postseason berth with a victory at Buffalo on Sunday.
The opening line from BetOnline.ag had the Bills favored by 4 points, though the Bills were down to 1.5-point favorites by Sunday morning amid speculation they would rest several front-line players because they're already locked into the second or third seed in the AFC playoffs.
If the Dolphins (10-5) lose at Buffalo, they'll still get in if the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens or Indianapolis Colts lose in Week 17.
But the betting line for each of those games suggests it's unlikely the Dolphins will get any kind of help on this day should they end up needing it.
The Browns are favored by 10 points to win at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers and earn their first playoff berth since 2002, the big reason for the large spread the announcement by Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin that Ben Roethlisberger and NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt will be among four key players who will not play.
The Ravens are favored by 14 points on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are coming off back-to-back wins against Pittsburgh and Houston but are only 4-10-1 on the season.
The Colts are even bigger favorites, 14.5 points at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have lost 14 in a row and have clinched the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
Along with Miami-Buffalo, Pittsburgh-Cleveland and Baltimore-Cincinnati also are 1 p.m. games, while Jacksonville-Indianapolis will kick off at 4:25 p.m.
There are five games in Week 17 that will affect the AFC playoff picture with a total of 32 different combinations of outcomes.
Out of those 32, 30 of them put the Dolphins in the playoffs.
Broken down even more, 18 result combinations in Week 17 put Miami as the No. 5 seed, six as the No. 6 seed, and six as the No. 7 seed.
Here's something that's settled:
-- If the Dolphins make the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, they will face the Tennessee Titans — unless Tennessee loses at Houston and Indianapolis defeats Jacksonville. The Dolphins will get the fifth seed with a victory at Buffalo in Week 17 or if Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis all lose.
-- If the Dolphins end up as the No. 6 seed, they will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round.
-- If the Dolphins end up as the No. 7 seed, they will be going back to Buffalo next weekend to face the Bills.
Back to the playoff permutations, the Dolphins will make the playoffs based of 93.8 percent of the possible results Sunday.
But because of the matchups and the betting lines, the Dolphins' actual chances of landing that playoff spot are much lower. The Dolphins are given a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs by projectfivethirtyfive.com, the lowest figure of any of the five teams fighting for the four remaining playoff spots in the AFC.
By comparison, Tennessee is given a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs, followed by Baltimore at 90 percent, Indianapolis at 82 percent and Cleveland at 73 percent.
Here's an even more potentially disturbing figure: If the three 1 p.m. games go against the Dolphins (they lose, Baltimore and Cleveland win), their chances of making the playoffs and having the Jaguars upset the Colts in that scenario per projectfivethirtyeight.com would be at 10 percent.
