Dolphins Have Offers to Move Into Round 1; Examining Every Angle

Chris Grier wants the world to know he’s considering making a move that would get the Miami Dolphins back into the first round of the 2023 NFL draft.

Disseminating that information was high on the Dolphins general manager’s agenda during his annual pre-draft press conference.

“I was waiting for someone to ask that one,” Grier said when asked if the Dolphins hoped to acquire more picks than the four Miami currently possesses. “We’ve had a couple of teams in the bottom half of the first round reach out, saying they would be interested in coming down, possibly if their guys aren’t there, and if we’d be interested in moving.

“For us, again, any opportunities we can to get a player, we’ll look at it.”

Most years Grier is teasing that he’s looking to move down in the draft.

But this year, maybe because Miami is missing a first-round pick because of the November trade that delivered Bradley Chubb and the penalty the franchise is paying for tampering with Coach Sean Payton and quarterback Tom Brady when they were under contract with other teams, it seems as if moving into the first round of what is viewed as a weak draft is being debated inside the organization.

Grier clearly wants to have more offers on the table so the franchise can move accordingly when Thursday night arrives.

Writers often are told to lean on the five Ws — who, what, when, where and why — when in the information gathering, and problem solving process.

So let’s try to use them to dissect what Grier and the Dolphins brass might be thinking, and targeting.

WHO could be the blue-chip player Miami is targeting?

We know it’s not a quarterback since the Dolphins have told us 100 times they believe Tua Tagovailoa is the type of talent around which you build a franchise, and we know it’s not a tailback because Grier’s history hints he wouldn’t select one in the first round.

Considering the Dolphins are deep at receiver, cornerback and edge rusher, it’s safe to conclude it isn’t one of those positions.

We can assume Miami might be motivated to trade into the first round of the 2023 draft to add an offensive lineman since three of the five projected starters — center Connor Williams, right guard Robert Hunt and right tackle Austin Jackson — are playing on the final year of their deals.

It’s also possible that a tight end could be the target since this is universally viewed as the best tight end draft class since 2019, and four — Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid, Georgia’s Darnell Washington and Iowa’s Sam LaPorta — are viewed as possible first-round picks.

It also could be a defensive linemen since Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis and Zach Sieler also are entering the final year of their contracts, and next year is an option year for Emmanuel Ogbah, who is slated to make $15.8 million on a deal the Dolphins could void in 2024 to create an identical amount of cap space.

WHAT would the Dolphins have to give up to move into the first round?

It is well understood the Dolphins don’t have many 2023 draft assets that would interest a team in the bottom half of the first round. That means Miami, which owns four picks in the draft, likely would have to put a 2024 first-round pick on the table.

And keep in mind the Dolphins don’t own a third- or fourth-round pick in 2024 because of the Chubb trade and the tampering punishment. So executing a trade could get tricky.

Say the Dolphins have a good season, qualifying for the playoffs. That would mean Miami ispicking 19 or lower next season.

But if, say, Tagovailoa suffers a season-ending injury and Miami is forced to play out the season with Mike White as a starter, then the Dolphins could own a top 10 selection.

WHERE could the Dolphins slide into the first round?

What makes this a unique draft is the theory that there are only 20 or so players who have a legit first-round draft grade. That could explain why more teams are looking to trade down than up next week.

The Seahawks, who own the 20th pick, have often traded out of the first round. Seattle’s pick is worth 850 value points based on the traditional draft chart.

Miami has a good working relationship with the Giants since General Manager Joe Schoen, one of Grier’s understudies from their time together in Miami, runs that franchise's front office. The Giants own pick No. 25, which is worth 720 points.

The Giants have limited cap space ($2.2 million left) and might benefit financially from moving their first-round pick.

Grier often does business with the Eagles, who own the 30th pick (which is worth 620 points), and the Dallas Cowboys, who own pick No. 26 (700 points), a franchise that reportedly has some level of interest in re-acquiring Cedrick Wilson Jr., who is being shopped by the Dolphins.

And Miami has made a number of trades with the Ravens, who owns the 22nd pick (which is worth 780 points),

The Vikings, who own the 23th pick (valued at 760 points) are tremendously cap-strapped. Minnesota has only $1.2 million in cap space, and that’s not even enough to sign the draftees.

The Vikings also are shopping Dalvin Cook and the Dolphins have had some discussions with Minnesota’s officials about the Pro Bowl tailback this offseason. But it’s hard to conclude that a deal between Minnesota and Miami would involve Miami getting Cook and the Vikings’ first-round pick.

Miami’s second-round pick (No. 51), and third-rounder (No. 84) are worth 560 points when packaged together. Those two picks won't be enough to get back into the first round. It’s conservative to set Miami’s 2024 first-round pick at a value of 750 points.

WHY would a possible trade be teased by the Dolphins?

It never hurts to listen, and teams talking before the draft not only exchange offers, but information.

Information is power, especially during the draft process.

The Dolphins, who have produced three straight winning seasons, are in win-now mode based on how the franchise’s roster and finances are set up. This team probably has a two-year window to win a championship before the roster becomes old and expensive.

And Grier knows the franchise doesn’t have time to waste considering owner Steve Ross turns 83 in May and has never won a playoff game during his 16 seasons as the franchise’s owner.

Trading next year’s first-round pick for a 2023 first-round pick who could become an immediate starter would speed up that player’s development, assuming he stays healthy and isn’t a bust like Noah Igbinoghene.

WHEN would a deal get done, finalized?

Don’t expect anything to get done before the draft because Grier said his decision would be based on who’s available in the late portion of the first round and what offers teams have on the table.

There are roughly 20 blue-chip talents in this draft, and that includes the top four rated quarterbacks, who are of no interest to the Dolphins. And keep in mind not every player fits every team's scheme.

That means we’ll see a move happen if a second-tier talent the Dolphins rate highly (say, Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr., Michigan defensive lineman Mazi Smith, or Georgia tight end Darnell Washington) falls into the latter portion of the first round, and Miami is motivated to go get them.