Which Impending Free Agent Should the Dolphins Sign to an Extension?
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"Follow the money” is always the wisest approach when analyzing what a team, organization, or person is up to.
The Miami Dolphins seemingly are taking a short-term approach to roster building, one that positions the franchise for a quick, and possibly painful, roster reset if things go left this season.
I’ve formulated this theory based on the amount of players entering the final year of their deal (28), and those entering opt-out seasons (12), contracts that provide the team a way to escape the 2024 financial commitment made to the player with limited loss of cap space.
The fact that nearly half the 2023 training camp roster -- 40 out of 90 players, and 19 of those 90 are rookies -- is entering a play-for-pay season is either exciting or nerve-wracking.
The word you opted for depends on what seat you’re sitting in.
Potential Starters Who Are Impending Free Agents
Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins - The Dolphins’ versatile defensive lineman will earn $10,75 million because Miami triggered his fifth-year option last offseason. While contract negotiations for an extension are ongoing, it should be pointed out that the last defensive lineman Miami drafted that got signed to a multi-year extension was Paul Soliai, and that was back in 2012, more than a decade ago.
Center Connor Williams - Williams will earn $7 million in the final season of a two-year, $14 million deal he signed with Miami in 2022 to become the team’s starting center. Because of the team's limited cap space, the Dolphins must decide if they view Williams as a cornerstone piece to this offensive line, which would clarify how high he needs to be on the list of players to re-sign.
Offensive guard Robert Hunt - Hunt, who has started 45 games for the Dolphins since becoming the team’s first of two second-round selections in the 2020 NFL draft, will make $2,99 million in 2023 unless he signs an extension before this season begins.
Defensive tackle Raekwon Davis - Davis makes a little less than $1.4 million in the final year of his rookie deal. That makes the nose tackle a contender for being the biggest bargain on the roster in 2023.
Offensive tackle Austin Jackson - The Dolphins declined Jackson’s fifth-year option and will pay the team’s projected starting right tackle $2,47 million this season with the hopes that he will have a healthy and productive 2023, justifying the 2020 first-round pick that was used to select him.
Defensive tackle Zach Sieler - This defensive tackle makes $2,978 million in the final year of a very team-friendly deal Miami struck early in his career after poaching him off the Baltimore Ravens practice squad. He’s turned into a player worth roughly twice that amount.
Safety Brandon Jones - The 2020 third-round pick will make $2,74 million this season because he's in the final year of his rookie deal. He's rehabbing a knee injury he suffered last October that could have him start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.
Cornerback Nik Needham - Miami re-signed Needham to a one-year deal worth $1,83 million, and guaranteed him nearly $600,000 of it, despite the fact he’s rehabbing an Achilles injury he suffered last October and might not be healthy enough to participate in the start of training camp.
Fullback Alec Ingold - The Dolphins starting fullback could earn $3 million this season if he plays in every game.
Punter Jake Bailey - The Dolphins guaranteed all of Bailey’s one-year deal, which will pay him $1.232,500. Even if he’s beaten out by rookie Michael Turk for the punter job, he'll get paid that sum.
Backups Who Are Impending Free Agents
Receiver Braxton Berrios - The Dolphins signed the slot receiver to a one-year deal worth $3.5 million, and guaranteed all but his $500,000 per game bonuses, which pays the slot receiver/punt returner $29,412 extra for every game he plays this season.
Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel - The Dolphins re-signed this 2019 fifth-round pick to a one-year deal worth $2,65 million with the vision of transitioning him to inside linebacker. All but his $20,000 per game roster bonus and $50,000 workout bonus is guaranteed.
Receiver Robbie Chosen - Chosen, a seven-year veteran who has started 86 NFL games, signed a one-year deal worth $1,17 million to play for his hometown team.
Offensive lineman Dan Feeney - The veteran interior lineman signed as a free agent this spring will earn $3.25 million this season, of which all of it is either paid, or guaranteed.
Safety DeShon Elliott - All $1.7 million of his 2023 salary is guaranteed, so Miami basically signed a 35-game starter for the price of a special teams contributor.
Tight end Eric Saubert - This 29-year-old signed a one-year deal worth $1,69 million and $850,00 of it was guaranteed. If he makes the 53-man roster and contributes on offense, he’ll be one of the team’s biggest bargains in 2023.
Tailback Salvon Ahmed - This 24-year-old signed a one-year deal that could be worth $1.45 million if he plays in every game. Only $200,000 of his contract was guaranteed, and he received a $100,000 signing bonus, so Miami could walk away from Ahmed’s contract eating that $300,000 if he’s not one of the team’s top four or five backs.
Pass rusher Malik Reed - Reed, an undersized pass rusher who has excelled in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme throughout the year, was guaranteed $750,000 of his $1.13 million salary for 2023.
Offensive guard Robert Jones - Jones is coming to the end of the three-year deal he signed as an undrafted rookie in 2021, and will earn $940,000 if he makes it to Miami’s 53-man roster. After this season Miami could place a restricted tender, worth $2.9 million on the 24-year-old to retain him for 2024.
Long/snapper Blake Ferguson - The Dolphins’ 2020 sixth-round pick will earn $1 million in the final year of his rookie contract.
Roster Bubble Players On One-Year Deals
Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene - This 2020 first-round pick will earn $2.15 million this season, of which $1.6 million is guaranteed. Releasing him doesn’t make sense financially, but it’s clear he doesn’t have much of a future at cornerback because of his troublesome ball awareness, and Miami's depth at the cornerback position.
Offensive tackle Geron Christian - Miami signed Christian to a one-year deal that guaranteed him $352,500. So whether he makes it to the regular season roster, this five-year veteran, who has started 16 NFL games, has made a nice financial come-up.
Offensive tackle Kendall Lamm - The Dolphins have guaranteed this 31-year-old $200,000 of the $1.2 million salary he’ll receive if he makes it to the regular season roster.
Tight end Tyler Kroft - This 31-year-old journeyman tight end will make $1.3 million in base salary and roster bonuses if survives camp, and makes it onto the 53-man roster.
Safety Elijah Campbell - The Dolphins signed the special teams contributor to a one-year deal for the NFL minimum ($1 million salary), providing him a chance to remain with Miami for a third season.
Receiver River Cracraft - The Dolphins signed the journeyman receiver to a one-year deal for the veteran minimum ($1 million), giving him a chance to make the 53-man roster for the second straight season.
Cornerback Justin Bethel - The Dolphins re-signed this 11-year veteran to a one-year deal worth $1.3 million, providing him a chance to make the 53-man roster.
Safety Trill Williams - Williams, an undrafted player Miami has spent the past two seasons investing in, will earn $870,000 in the final year of a contract he signed in 2021. If he has a productive season Miami can use the restricted tender, which is worth $2.9 million, to retain his services.
