Dolphins in Unfamiliar Position Against Patriots
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The Miami Dolphins are favored to defeat the New England Patriots in the season opener for both teams at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 1, and one certainly could argue that the three-point spread should be bigger.
But the mere fact the Dolphins are favored at all is significant when it comes to this matchup.
Barring a dramatic shift in the line over the next few days, the Dolphins will go into a game against the Patriots as the favorites for the first time since December 2013. That will end a streak of 16 matchups where they were underdogs.
THE START OF A STRANGE STREAK
The streak, ironically enough, started with a season opener in Miami when the Patriots were 5.5-point favorites before the Dolphins handed them a 33-20 loss after outscoring them 23-0 in the second half.
New England was favored by three points when the teams opened the season at Gillette Stadium in 2021 and favored by six when the teams met in the season finale at Hard Rock Stadium. With Xavien Howard playing a starring role in both games, the Dolphins swept the Patriots for the first time since 2000 with 17-16 and 33-24 victories.
Maybe the most surprising betting line came in the second game between the teams in 2020. New England had defeated Miami, 21-11, in that season opener, but came to Hard Rock Stadium with a 6-7 record to face the 8-5 Dolphins and yet was a 1.5-point favorite.
The Dolphins won that game, 22-12, thanks to a 250-yard rushing performance that included Tua Tagovailoa's two short TD runs.
THE DOLPHINS-PATRIOTS AN EVEN SERIES FOR PAST EIGHT YEARS
The Dolphins actually fared relatively well against the Patriots during that eight-year stretch, going 8-8 in those games straight up (regardless of point spread).
New England actually was favored by more than seven points for 10 of those previous 16 meetings, and three of the six times it was less than that came after Tom Brady left the Patriots.
And it was in Brady's first year as the Patriots' full-time starter, all the way back in 2002, that the Dolphins were favored over New England in both matchups for the last time.
If things work out according to plan for the Dolphins and the Patriots took a dip after making the playoffs last season, that other streak also could end.
But through the 2000s, it's been just a rare occurrence for the Dolphins to be favored against New England at any time, any point.
Before that 2013 matchup, the previous time the Dolphins were favored over New England was in 2003 when the spread was 6.5 points and the Patriots left Miami with a 19-13 overtime victory.
So this point spread heading into the 2022 season opener absolutely is refreshing. And maybe it's the start of a trend in the opposite direction when it comes to the Dolphins-Patriots series.
