Dolphins Playoff Opponent Breakdown: Buffalo Bills
The Miami Dolphins will look for their first playoff victory since 2000 when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon as part of the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Dolphins have lost their last four playoff games since defeating the Indianapolis Colts, 23-17 in overtime, on Dec. 30, 2000.
The Dolphins were 9-8 in the regular season, clinching a playoff spot on the final day with a victory against the New York Jets combined with the Bills defeating the New England Patriots, 35-23, in Buffalo. The Bills finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, with their Week 17 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals canceled by the NFL after the incident involving safety Damar Hamlin.
To get some answers on five major questions related to the Bills, we turned to Tim Graham, who writes for The Athletic in Buffalo.
1. How wild should we expect the atmosphere to be Sunday afternoon in light of the great news of Damar Hamlin being released from the hospital?
TG: That's a great question that depends on whether Hamlin is in attendance, which is plausible now that he has been discharged from the hospital. I anticipated a far more emotional response from fans last Sunday against the Patriots, but aside from a few moments here or there it felt like a normal AFC East rivalry game. My colleague Matthew Fairburn walked the tailgating areas before the game with the intention of writing a story on how fans were reacting to Hamlin's recovery, but he didn't find much material. He also sensed, with Hamlin in the clear, folks were ready to move on. So he wrote about Nyheim Hines instead.
2. What did the Bills think of the NFL's decision to cancel the Bills-Bengals game, which essentially gave K.C. the top seed and the Bills the second seed, and what did you personally think of it?
TG: I'm glad the game was canceled, but I was surprised the NFL did so. I'm pretty cynical when it comes to the NFL's decision-making process, and I thought they would find a way to wedge it somewhere on the calendar with "schedule integrity" the excuse, but with the massive, one-off television spectacle the true reason. Canceling was the correct move, although it was unfortunate how the lost game impacted the Bills' chances to earn the first-round bye.
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3. How do you balance the Bills being viewed as a Super Bowl favorite (especially with the emotional lift provided by Hamlin's recovery) with the reality that if not for Nyheim Hines' two kickoff returns for touchdowns, the Bills actually might not have beaten the Patriots in Week 18?
TG: Had the Bills lost, then it would have been easy to throw out that game as uninformative. Those guys had been through so much, the roller coaster of emotions, thinking they might have watched a teammate die right in front of them, leaving him behind in Cincinnati, the NFL telling them Tuesday afternoon — even though Hamlin still was unconscious and on a ventilator — they had to kick off at 1 p.m. Sunday regardless, the elation of learning the good news Hamlin was going to be OK, not being able to practice normally even if it weren't a short week, the exhaustion and fatigue and confusion. As former special teams ace and Bills broadcaster Steve Tasker said afterward: "The run-up to this game and getting ready for this game, I thought they might struggle today. They might win by a billion, or they might lose by a billion."
4. What kind of changes, if any, would you expect to see from the Bills defense with Skylar Thompson starting at QB for Miami instead of Tua Tagovailoa?
TG: The Bills have been vulnerable against the run, especially against the Dolphins in Week 15. Thompson's arm is a stark downgrade. That and his inexperience allow the Bills to focus more on stopping Raheem Mostert (if he plays), Jeff Wilson, Salvon Ahmed and whomever else. Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier will challenge Thompson to beat them, a plan that was successful last week against Mac Jones, who threw three interceptions.
5. Where can the Dolphins defense take advantage of the Buffalo offense and somehow slow down Josh Allen and company?
TG: Maybe let Allen throw instead of dropping back in coverage and giving him room to scramble? Of all the bad things that have happened to the Bills offense, a vast majority are when the ball leaves Allen's hand. He has thrown 14 interceptions, and his targets rank second in drops despite playing one fewer game than 30 other teams. Third-year receiver Gabriel Davis has been maddeningly inconsistent after flashing superstar traits toward the end of last season and the start of 2022. There's a reason GM Brandon Beane signed Cole Beasley and John Brown off the street last month.
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