Dolphins Playoff Outlook Through Week 14
Because there are so many teams ahead of the Miami Dolphins in the AFC standings, it was impossible for all the results from the Week 14 action to work out in their favor in terms of helping improve their pretty slim playoff hopes.
So, as one should have expected, it was a mixed bag of results in terms of the playoff contenders, though in the case of the Buffalo Bills, their loss actually might have hurt the Dolphins.
Let's first run down the results that clearly helped the Dolphins, and that was Kansas City routing Las Vegas, San Francisco defeating Cincinnati in overtime (though that hurt Miami's 2022 first-round pick from the 49ers, and the Steelers losing at Minnesota on Thursday night.
The results that clearly didn't help included the Chargers routing the Giants, Cleveland holding off Baltimore's comeback attempt and Denver routing Detroit.
And then we get to the confusing Bills-Bucs results and how it might have hurt the Dolphins' playoff chances even though the NFC team beat an AFC playoff contender.
The problem here, of course, is Buffalo's sweep of the season series against Miami this season, which will give the Bills any tiebreaker over the Dolphins. Where this comes into play is that the first step in any multi-team tiebreaker for an AFC wild-card berth is to break ties among teams in the same division, which knocks out the Dolphins in a mulitple-team tiebreaker involving Buffalo.
For example, if the Dolphins are involved in a three-way tie with Buffalo and, say, Cleveland for two wild-card berths, the Dolphins are out because of the Bills' season sweep, whereas they might win a two-team tiebreaker with the Browns if the Bills finish with a better record. Hence, the Buffalo loss at Tampa Bay wasn't necessarily a win for the Dolphins.
Here's where things stands in the big pictures: Through Week 14 (the Monday night game involves NFC contenders Arizona and the Rams), the Dolphins have a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to projectfivethirtyeight.com, down from 11 percent through Week 13.
That percentage shoots up to 77 percent if the Dolphins are able to extend their winning streak all the way through the rest of the regular season with wins against the Jets, Saints, Titans and Patriots over the next month — not factoring in results from other AFC contenders.
But, as an example of the Buffalo effect, the Dolphins could finish 10-7 and see their playoff chance percentage drop to 43 if Buffalo also finishes 10-7 and their one remaining loss comes at New England in Week 16.
The Dolphins' current playoff chance percentage, per projectfivethirtyeight.com, is tied for 11th in the AFC with Pittsburgh, having jumped over the Raiders, whose chances are now pegged at 5 percent.
Having presented all this, things are pretty muddled right now because there are four weeks left and so many contenders involved, but we're at least able to have that conversation, which certainly didn't appear realistic when the Dolphins were 1-7.
REMAINING AFC PLAYOFF CONTENDER SCHEDULES
New England (9-4): at Indianapolis (7-6), vs. Buffalo (7-6), vs. Jacksonville (2-11), at Miami (6-7)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .423
Tennessee (9-4): at Pittsburgh (6-6-1), vs. San Francisco (7-6), vs. Miami (6-7), at Houston (2-11)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .413
Baltimore (8-5): vs. Green Bay (10-3), at Cincinnati (7-6), vs. L.A. Rams (8-4), vs. Pittsburgh (6-6-1)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .606
Kansas City (9-4): at L.A. Chargers (8-5), vs. Pittsburgh (6-6-1), at Cincinnati (7-6), at Denver (7-6)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .548
Buffalo (7-6): vs. Carolina (5-8), at New England (9-4), vs. Atlanta (6-7), vs. N.Y. Jets (3-10)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .442
L.A. Chargers (8-5): vs. Kansas City (9-4), at Houston (2-11), vs. Denver (7-6), at Las Vegas (6-7)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .462
Cincinnati (7-6): at Denver (7-6), vs. Baltimore (8-5), vs. Kansas City (9-4), at Cleveland (7-6)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .596
Pittsburgh (6-6-1): vs. Tennessee (9-4), at Kansas City (9-4), vs. Cleveland (7-6), at Baltimore (8-5)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .635
Indianapolis (7-6): vs. New England (9-4), at Arizona (10-2), vs. Las Vegas (6-7), at Jacksonville (2-11)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .519
Las Vegas (6-7): at Cleveland (7-6), vs. Denver (7-6), at Indianapolis (7-6), vs. L.A. Chargers (8-5)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .558
Cleveland (7-6): vs. Las Vegas (6-7), at Green Bay (10-3), at Pittsburgh (6-6-1), vs. Cincinnati (7-6)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .567
Denver (7-6): vs. Cincinnati (7-6), at Las Vegas (6-7), at L.A. Chargers (8-5), vs. Kansas City (9-4)... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .577
Miami (6-7): vs. N.Y. Jets (3-10), at New Orleans (6-7), at Tennessee (9-4), New England (9-4) ... Remaining opponent combined winning percentage: .519
