Dolphins Potential Draft Target: OL John Micheal Schmitz
The 2023 NFL draft is quickly approaching.
The Miami Dolphins don’t have a first-round pick (would have been 21st overall) due to tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton, but they do have the 51st overall pick, a third-round pick (85) and two Day 3 picks (198 and 241).
Miami is hoping those picks can help them build on a roster that reached the playoffs this past season for the first time since 2016.
This article series is intended to be an introduction to these players so fans are familiar with a number of options and why they make sense for the Dolphins.
We’ll dive into some simple biographical information, the pros and cons of their game and how they fit into Miami’s scheme or depth chart.
MINNESOTA IOL JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ
Basic background: Schmitz took over the Golden Gophers’ starting center position during the 2019 season and never gave it up. He’s got four years of starting center experience under his belt already, including 35 starts. He was named a 2022 AP First Team All-America, and he was named to the 2022 All-Big Ten First Team by the conference’s media and coaches. Schmitz also was a standout at the 2023 Senior Bowl, where he looked like one of the class's most polished senior offensive line prospects. Schmitz was a mostly unheralded recruit from the state of Illinois. ESPN ranked him as the No. 14 recruit in Illinois. However, Schmitz has a wrestling background from high school, which typically translates to success for an interior offensive lineman
Pros of Schmitz's Game
Schmitz spent six years in college, and that experience shows on his film. He displays consistent pass protection technique in both his upper and lower body. He quickly gets his hands inside the chest plate of defenders and controls them from start to finish. He’s quick enough to mirror athletic pass rushers on an island and make reach blocks down the line of scrimmage in the running game. His knowledge of leverage and angles allows him to create good movement and holes in the running game. Schmitz is a scheme-diverse player, capable of winning in both man and power looks. This is something the Dolphins and coach Mike McDaniel should value. Although Miami’s offense uses a lot of outside zone concepts, they mix in a fair amount of gap/man concepts too. Schmitz has good size for a center. He’s listed at just over 6-3 and 301 pounds with 32-inch arms. Those numbers could allow him to play guard at the next level, adding to his versatile profile. Overall, Schmitz is an experienced, smart player with good baseline ability in pass protection and run blocking.
Cons of Schmitz's Game
The biggest knock on Schmitz’s game is his lack of upside. Spending six years in college is great for learning schemes and perfecting technique, but it likely means Schmitz already has capped out in his development. He’s truly only an average athlete. He’s capable of getting to the second level or pulling in front of power-run concepts, but he won’t dominate in space. Given his age, that is not likely to improve over time. Schmitz profiles as an early starter with fringe Pro Bowl potential in the NFL. That’s obviously pretty good, but there doesn’t appear to be an All-Pro ceiling in his profile. That, along with his age, will make some teams hesitant to invest a high pick in him.
HOW JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ FITS THE MIAMI DOLPHINS
All of Schmitz’s college experience is at center. If Miami were to draft him, it probably would be best to leave him there.
Connor Williams arguably had the best season of his career at center last year. The prospect of moving him isn’t ideal, but he played left guard — one of the Dolphins’ two biggest holes on the offensive line — for the first four seasons of his career.
Additionally, Williams is scheduled to be a free agent next season. Adding Michael Schmitz would lessen the pressure of having to bring Williams back.
The Dolphins also could move Michael Schmitz to guard and see how he handles it. He’s got enough size and length to survive there for at least one season, if not long term.
Scheme and development-wise, it’s hard to find a more ideal prospect for Miami than Schmitz. He’s a perfect scheme fit thanks to his versatility to block man and zone run concepts successfully.
He also profiles as a player who shouldn’t need much development at the NFL level. The Dolphins have struggled to develop offensive linemen in recent years, so the prospect of drafting one with Schmitz’s experience has to be appealing.
Odds Schmitz makes it to 51
Judging the interior offensive line market is especially difficult. Different teams have wildly different values on the position.
If teams view Schmitz as a pure center, he likely would make it to Miami’s pick at 51. Most pure centers taken inside the top 50 are athletic anomalies like Iowa’s Tyler Linderbaum (25th overall in 2022) and N.C. State’s Garrett Bradbury (18th overall in 2019).
Most of the interior offensive linemen drafted before pick 50 usually have some positional flexibility. Alijah Vera-Tucker went 14th overall in 2021, but he had tackle experience in his background.
The same goes for Zion Johnson, who the Chargers took at 17 last season. When looking at pure centers, players like Creed Humphrey come to mind. Humphrey was a highly regarded prospect by the media, but he ended up slipping to 63rd overall in 2021.
Cam Jurgens, another pure center, was selected by the Eagles 51st overall in the 2022 draft. Simply put, 51 feels like the sweet spot for Schmitz, given his background and how the NFL values the center position.
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